If the government were honest about the next 4 months

[RuleWithAWoodenFoot]

They'd say that children are probably going to catch covid, there is nothing to stop this happening. Lots of families will probably catch it off their children, school staff will probably catch it off children too.

Education is going to be disrupted again if the above happens. No way around it. But it could be 'over' by November when the bad weather kicks in and older folk start getting ill as per usual circumstances. At that point booster vaccs could start.

It's definitely 'an approach', but not telling people that this is the plan is unfair. Do you think people have realised this yet? Or are the Emperor's new clothes still in view?

@Peteycat

Coronavirus suppression cannot continue. There are various issues with them. So, I don't scattergun threads. Is that your new go to word for a different opinion because you have said that to me before.

What do mean "there are various issue with them"?

There's a huge range of NPIs that can be used, all with varying degrees of pros and cons, and it's little naive to just state all are unnecessary without giving it a bit more thought.

And of course worse than embarrassing if any other kid is unlucky enough to get really ill or have "long covid".

2-7 % get long covid, some studies have suggested more.

Bear in mind also that the current policy is to strongly encourage CEV children back into school, who were previously shielding. Many of these won't have had a vaccine. Let's hope there aren't any in a class with Watapalava's kids.

@Watapalava

No it won’t

Because kids rarely get symptoms

They will only be sent home if positive and not contacts

Honestly hardly any kids get symptoms by comparison so why would they test? It’s certainly not for their benefit

The main way disruption will happen is if they do test it’s bloody obvious given the high rate of asymptomatic presentation

My dd is year 11 sept and has already isolated as acontact lots of times ‘for the benefit of others’. I am not worried about her catching covid one bit so won’t be doing anything that deliberately causes her to isolate

Why the hell would I?!

So no come sept I won’t test because she can’t afford to stay off for an illness which isn’t making her unwell

If she has covid and is asymptomatic I genuinely don’t want to know as she’s been inconvenienced enough

Her grades are already lower than they were end of year 9

If all parents and kids did the same as you are imploring us all to do how do you think the situation in schools would develop? So no testing whatsoever (unless showing symptoms) before returning to indoor crowded rooms with the majority of kids unvaccinated. Knowing how transmissible it is? Do you think schools will just carry on with most kids asymptomatic?

@Peteycat

Coronavirus suppression cannot continue. There are various issues with them. So, I don't scattergun threads. Is that your new go to word for a different opinion because you have said that to me before.

Coronavirus suppression cannot continue. Yes, we can continue with infection control measures. for example, Germany are keeping medical grade masks till next year

I don't scattergun threads It depends what is meant by that. You do post against masks and vaccines for kids and isolation and testing. Against all the things that would help us get more safely through this pandemic. You don't give scientific support for your opinions. Whatever we want to call that, you do it.

Yes I do

If my daughter has covid and asymptomatic I don’t want to know because I’m happy for her to go to school and pass it on to other kids who are also asymptomatic or teachers who are mildly ill

Same way she goes to school with a cold every year

On Mumsnet there’s a real over emphasis on symptoms

Most are not unwell

Here

What’s going to happen next year to make Germany get rid of masks?

Nothing because covid isn’t going away

It’s masks gone or masks forever there is no inbetqeen where we suddenly get rid of it

@Watapalava

Yes I do

If my daughter has covid and asymptomatic I don’t want to know because I’m happy for her to go to school and pass it on to other kids who are also asymptomatic or teachers who are mildly ill

Same way she goes to school with a cold every year

On Mumsnet there’s a real over emphasis on symptoms

Most are not unwell

But it's the denominator that's important, and even though it's a very small proportion who will be affected, this translates to a large number of affected kids when you consider how many will be exposed.

I totally agree percentage wise it's small, but this will end up impacting a lot of children.

@Watapalava

Here

What’s going to happen next year to make Germany get rid of masks?

Nothing because covid isn’t going away

It’s masks gone or masks forever there is no inbetqeen where we suddenly get rid of it

It’s masks gone or masks forever

That's a bit silly isn't it.

I think quite a lot of people will be a bit careful over winter and then see how things are next year.

It's precisely because covid isn't going away that a lot of people want to adjust to live with it more safely.

Haven’t read the whole thread OP but I agree with your predictions. Once schools go back and more people return to WOH in Sept it will spread very rapidly.

I am hopeful however that very very few will get it severely thanks to the vaccine. This is very much what we are seeing so far.

I am also hopeful that school will escape too much disruption because although many children will get it, I expect the great majority will be asymptomatic (or at least will not have the 3 symptoms that carry the requirement to test) and therefore will be undetected and stay at school. And no isolation for close contacts unless positive - that will make a huge difference to disruption levels. Staff absences will cause some issues for sure, but again they will not be required to isolate unless positive themselves and that should only happen once.

Do you think schools will just carry on with most kids asymptomatic?

Yes, and so they should

Hmmm viral load is going to be pretty high in those classrooms.

Poor kids.

Those poor kids who haven’t a clue they have it? Gotta day I’m not really losing sleep over asymptomatic kids

@Watapalava

Those poor kids who haven’t a clue they have it? Gotta day I’m not really losing sleep over asymptomatic kids

But what about those that do?

As I said small percentage yes, but huge denominator.

@herecomesthsun

Hmmm viral load is going to be pretty high in those classrooms.

Poor kids.

This is something I wonder about. I imagine lots of kids will be coughing and spluttering and it will spread fast.

@Watapalava

It’s ridiculous to isolate so many people esp when hardly any went onto get the virus afterwards

Now what is the obvious problem with this statement?

Variants are more likely when there are high infection rates as each infection of a new host brings with it the possibility of a new mutation.

Variants are identified through Genome mapping which is performed on a percentage of PCR tests. If people don't test the variants can't be picked up.

Variants so far luckily have not been vaccine resistant, that isn't guaranteed to always be the case.

The responsible action is to reduce transmission where possible through mitigating measures

• vaccines
• hand hygiene
• testing
• isolation if positive
• ventilation

Those kids who do get unwell are unwell for a few days in same way as they would with D&V, flu and colds

Boentobe - Schools isolations - most kids didn’t go to school as they weren’t allowe but it was rare near me to see kids isolate outside of achool

No one really saw them as ‘proper isolations’. Kids still had sleepovers and parties and went to clubs etc given the frequency and the fact teachers basically sent home anyone

@Watapalava

Those kids who do get unwell are unwell for a few days in same way as they would with D&V, flu and colds

Boentobe - Schools isolations - most kids didn’t go to school as they weren’t allowe but it was rare near me to see kids isolate outside of achool

No one really saw them as ‘proper isolations’. Kids still had sleepovers and parties and went to clubs etc given the frequency and the fact teachers basically sent home anyone

~1% of children get severe or life threatening complications from COVID. Very very low.

But consider the number of school aged children in the UK who will be impacted by these high levels of exposure - around 11.9 million. Say half of them are immune (which is a generous estimates) - this leaves around 5 million.

1% of 5 million children translates to 50,000 severe or life threatening cases, which could be prevented/mitigated by suppression measures.

In terms of long COVID, estimates are at around 2-6%, which at the lowest end translates to 100,000 potential cases.

"and the fact teachers basically sent home anyone"

"Teachers" didn't send anyone home. PHE were consulted and made the decision.

@Watapalava

Those kids who do get unwell are unwell for a few days in same way as they would with D&V, flu and colds

Boentobe - Schools isolations - most kids didn’t go to school as they weren’t allowe but it was rare near me to see kids isolate outside of achool

No one really saw them as ‘proper isolations’. Kids still had sleepovers and parties and went to clubs etc given the frequency and the fact teachers basically sent home anyone

Watapalava,

I find your posts interesting because they are from a viewpoint - and community - at the furthest possible end from the one I work and live in. It's really interesting to see the spread of behaviours / attitudes across the country and how each of us can see it as 'the general reality' when in fact it is a strictly local pattern of behaviour.

I imagine that, across the country, there are 'micro communities' at your end, at my end, and everywhere in between - where a specific area, or even a specific like-minded friendship group, see 'their local norm' as a 'general norm'.

In my area, isolating young people isolated, in general. Very few out and about, and a certain amount of social pressure to conform to that norm on the social media that I am aware of. Extra-curricular clubs very much closed to anyone isolating (I suppose a few from completely outside the area might have got away with it, but communication amongst local clubs / local schools / local parents was pretty constant and indoor classes like swimming / dance / gym etc closed for self-isolation regularly if there had been close contact within a class).

It's not that mine is 'the only norm', nor your 'the only norm' - just that there are a range of norms across the country and it is why e.g. national sampling / survey data like ONS and PHE is valuable.

@Watapalava

Yes I do

If my daughter has covid and asymptomatic I don’t want to know because I’m happy for her to go to school and pass it on to other kids who are also asymptomatic or teachers who are mildly ill

Same way she goes to school with a cold every year

On Mumsnet there’s a real over emphasis on symptoms

Most are not unwell

If people do that, I won't be able to send my healthy kids to school. I am in too much danger from COVID.

I thought I was over being shocked on here after all the shitty attitudes exposed in 2020, but it seems not.

Actually, @cantkeepawayforever , you're right, and your post has made me feel better. People in my local community seemed to take COVID seriously, isolated properly, and their kids were volunteering to help the COVID charities that sprang up.

Now, I think that's because I'm lucky enough to live in an affluent area. I have no doubt that I would have a different view of things if I lived somewhere with a lot more poverty.

However, I'd still be CEV, and even more screwed. I feel so, so sorry for CEV people living in areas where people have dropped all precautions.

If my daughter has covid and asymptomatic I don’t want to know because I’m happy for her to go to school and pass it on to other kids who are also asymptomatic or teachers who are mildly ill

If you knew that your daughter had a classmate who was CEV (unvaccinated either because too young or not yet organised, or even not yet enough time since vaccination), or who lived with a CEV parent / grandparent, would you be willing to modify your behaviour?

Ir would you continue to say that since MOST of the class would have a mild disease, it's OK?

According to a post upthread, it's tough shit, because we're going to die anyway. Something like that. It's like 2020 all over again.

~1% of children get severe or life threatening complications from COVID. Very very low.

Isn't that the more like the figure for adults, with that skewed heavily towards older people? The figures are more like 1 in 50,000 risk of being admitted to ICU and 1 in 500,000 of death.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717.amp