NZ back into lockdown.

[Malin52]

1 case in the community. All of NZ back into lockdown Level 4 because no link to border found.

Hard and fast.

Later would have been better, summer & outdoors, more ppe, more tests, obviously we should also have instituted social distancing, banned mass gatherings (Cheltenhan etc ). It would also have allowed us time to import enough surgical masks that we could have encouraged rather than DIScouraged masks early on (which was purely about supply, not as they claimed that "masks don't work" ). All that would have bought valuable time and saved many 10s of 1000s of lives.

@Terhou

The reason given is simply that there are too many people trying to get spaces! Many spaces have been taken with people returning from the Olympics, people going to an Expo in Dubai and other such things.

Do people actually accept that excuse? Surely what it actually is is an admission that the government badly underestimated demand and has failed to adjust its arrangements to meet that demand. Returns from the Olympics and the Expo don't account for the fact that quarantine spaces are booked up till January. That length of queue indicates that they are underperforming badly. When it comes to citizens having to risk overstaying on visas and losing jobs if they just want to do something like attend a parent's funeral, the government surely needs to step up.

I live in hope but not optimistic for anything to be done on the number of places.

I would like to see some sort of 'queue' system where at least you get a place eventually. At the moment it is just a lottery, if you just happen to be logged on to MIQ at the precise second a space becomes available then you are lucky - you then have to try and book a flight to coincide with that slot and pray the flight is not cancelled or it is back to square one.

How are the kiwi's doing today?

I'm a bit disappointed with the numbers yesterday - and expect them to be higher today. But very pleased that 70% are either jabbed or booked to be. I reckon we'll easily hit 80%+

Turangawaewae

I hope everyone os aware it's 5 weeks from 1st to protection esp for delta variant.

@Turangawaewae that's 70 per cent booked for a jab or with first jab, and its 70 percent of people over forty.
It's a manipulated statistic, for political gain.

@terhou capacity in MIQ is constrained by lack of suitable staff (guards, nurses etc) rather than lack of available built space.

This is a really interesting thread and I have learned a lot.

A couple of NZ posters have mentioned your borders opening in Feb 2022. By then you will all be fully vaccinated and therefore deaths and hospitalisation shouldn't be a challenge. However is it expected that at that point inevitably numbers will rise? Will snap lockdowns cease at that point?

No criticism from me at all about the handling thus far. NZ sensibly used its size, population numbers and geographical location to act hard and fast to prevent numbers but I wonder whether even a modest increase once borders open might prompt a lot of panic because it's not what you have experienced to date.

A couple of NZ posters have mentioned your borders opening in Feb 2022. By then you will all be fully vaccinated and therefore deaths and hospitalisation shouldn't be a challenge. However is it expected that at that point inevitably numbers will rise? Will snap lockdowns cease at that point?

Because of the long, drawn out vaccination programme, use of the Pfizer vaccine and a short interval between immunisations, immunity will be waning by then (if not earlier) among high risk groups so hospitalisations and deaths will be a huge potential challenge unless there is a booster programme that's handled much more effectively than this initial programme has been.

[quote Guineapigbridge]@terhou capacity in MIQ is constrained by lack of suitable staff (guards, nurses etc) rather than lack of available built space.[/quote]
Seems odd, given the way unemployment rates in NZ jumped last year.

Unemployment is at 4% (lower than pre-pandemic) and the number of vacancies being posted is at a high but with minimal applicants. Trying to find Nurses (and other healthcare staff both registered and unregistered roles) is a challenge.

i.stuff.co.nz/business/126038693/record-number-of-jobs-advertised-with-fewer-applicants

Unemployment in NZ is currently 4% - the lowest it’s been in like 25 years. No immigration has meant lots of different options for most candidates. I’m assuming hanging around an MIQ facility isn’t at the top of most people’s lists (can’t say it would be top of mine!)

It was interesting to hear Jacinda suggesting that the r0 of the delta virus, based on the speed of spread, may be as high as 6.

@FourTeaFallOut

It was interesting to hear Jacinda suggesting that the r0 of the delta virus, based on the speed of spread, may be as high as 6.

For some months it has been reported that Delta r0 is up to 8 (even 9 by some reports) and with the potential to increase further with mutation.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420

I know but I don't think we've seen a track and trace in quick motion as the one available to New Zealand at the moment.

Trying to get r below 0 when is starts so high. I wonder how if that is even possible

@Tuppity

Trying to get r below 0 when is starts so high. I wonder how if that is even possible

As it's airborne, remaining in the air for hours at minimum, and with a high r0, presumably you would need to start looking at more and more extreme measures to prevent all transmission e.g. closing all shops, including dairies and supermarkets.

That would be impractical to impose and police.

@FourTeaFallOut

It was interesting to hear Jacinda suggesting that the r0 of the delta virus, based on the speed of spread, may be as high as 6.

I think as its in very small concentrated areas the r name being high isn't as problematic as if it was across the whole country due to the way its calculated, so although it sounds scary I think it's not as bad as it first seems.

Rate not make

Name omg

I think things are definitely at that 'hold your breathe' moment if you pardon the pun.

I think there may be starting to be some disagreement occurring within the NZ government over policy amid going alarm/pressure from the public over how things are being handled ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58297895

Speaking to the media on Sunday, Mr Hipkins said eliminating the virus inside New Zealand was still the government's aim.

"The reality though is that a virus that can be infectious within 24 hours of someone getting it - that changes the game considerably," he told the televised Q+A political talk show on Sunday.

"It does mean that all of our existing protections... start to look less adequate and less robust," he said, adding that it raises "some pretty big questions about what the long-term future of our plans are".

"At some point we will have to start to be more open in the future."

So definite questions on the table and definite lack of full confidence compared with a couple of weeks ago where there wasn't this type of doubt about.

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-seven-covid-cases-at-aut-auckland-lockdown-for-several-weeks-likely-expert/SC6UKPRR7FMOA2O4MIRSELUWAE/

Meanwhile Arden definitely seems to be under growing pressure and is on the defensive :

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is standing by New Zealand's elimination strategy, saying it has worked before.

Ardern said the "go hard, go early" strategy was short and sharp compared to the rest of the world and she stands behind the strategy.

"We can only look at what's best for us and we know an elimination strategy has worked for New Zealand before," Ardern said.

There is a subtle change of tone and i think this pressure is only going to grow in the next couple of days which are crucial.

They are expecting case numbers to peak between Wednesday and Friday. But they are already hitting numbers at the higher end of predictions with just over 100 cases already. Thats definitely going to up the pressure in the next couple of days as nerves fray. Have NZ lucked out and caught all the cases early or have they been too far behind where people are being infected and how quickly they can track them? The point about the infectiousness period starting 24 hrs after being infectious is the worrying bit in the context of delays in testing. Thats quicker than other variants and thats significant given Arden's comments about strategy working before.

If numbers after next weekend arent starting to look like they are feeling the effects of the lockdown then I think all bets are off about what happens next. How long can a level 4 lockdown be maintained before public support starts to wane?

The good news is the wastewater still looks ok, so thats the thing that is looking good. So fingers crossed for NZ.

Why they haven't announced that the lockdown in Auckland will be a couple of weeks yet, is beyond me though.

i.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300386701/the-virus-has-evolved-our-response-should-as-well

Pretty accurate and harsh on the government response article and in Stuff which seems pretty tame with regards to government criticism from what I can see.
But gotta say , this is not all on Arden. Yes she has cocked up but the NZ press and journalists were cheering her on from the sidelines. There were no critical voices of the zero Covid strategy in NZ as far as I could see until literally the last couple of weeks. It’s a failure of the press to hold government to account as much as a failure of the government itself. If you listen to any press conference given by Arden or the ministers the questions are never about why is the vaccine roll out so slow, why aren’t we using AZ, why aren’t we preparing our hospitals for the inevitable rise in cases etc etc etc
I could see this outcome for NZ in about June last year and it was certainly discussed plenty of times on MN. Why couldn’t the NZ government or the NZ press?
I think they might have done enough to stamp out this outbreak ( fingers crossed) but the press , now they have seen behind the curtain, have got to up their game and start demanding answers to tough questions before the next inevitable outbreak.

i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126133484/failings-that-were-foreseeable-and-unforgivable-let-delta-loose

Sorry I meant this particular article ( although both say similar)

They've definitely been resting on their laurels too much

Big shift in the modelling.

Gone from original modelling of 50 - 120 cases to best case scenario of 200 cases up to a possible 1000 cases for this outbreak.

They have had complete freedom whilst we have been in lockdown, will probably be shortlived and good luck to them