Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

Even lockdown for flu would have diminishing returns though. I’m a bit worried about flu this winter coming precisely because last winter‘s lockdowns were so effective. So brilliant, really low flu cases last year, but flu isn’t extinct, so now we might end up with fewer people with immunity and less knowledge about which strains will be predominant to tailor the vaccine for (we usually look at what’s circulating in places like Australia 6 months ahead).

So we could do the same lockdowns again. But then we’d have even less immunity and less knowledge about what to vaccinate against, so we’d even to have been stricter lockdowns for the next year, and then we’d have even less population immunity, and…

I think lockdowns and really severe restrictions were probably warranted to head off the total disaster that covid would have resulted in if we’d done nothing. But they’re emergency measures that work for short durations, they’re not standard ‘just being sensible’ measures we can reimpose on a regular basis.

@GoldenOmber

Even lockdown for flu would have diminishing returns though. I’m a bit worried about flu this winter coming precisely because last winter‘s lockdowns were so effective. So brilliant, really low flu cases last year, but flu isn’t extinct, so now we might end up with fewer people with immunity and less knowledge about which strains will be predominant to tailor the vaccine for (we usually look at what’s circulating in places like Australia 6 months ahead).

So we could do the same lockdowns again. But then we’d have even less immunity and less knowledge about what to vaccinate against, so we’d even to have been stricter lockdowns for the next year, and then we’d have even less population immunity, and…

I think lockdowns and really severe restrictions were probably warranted to head off the total disaster that covid would have resulted in if we’d done nothing. But they’re emergency measures that work for short durations, they’re not standard ‘just being sensible’ measures we can reimpose on a regular basis.

Couldn't agree more. Lockdowns were great to slow the spread while the vaccine was designed and distributed. For covid at least there should never be another lockdown again as there is no trade off, there litterally would be no reason other than we are scared. As whitty said were at the point now where anything we do is just delaying things not stopping them. Delaying them would be fine if it was cost free but we all know that isn't the case.

Yes delaying to next summer doesn’t make sense.

It's manageable at the moment. The issue is when the kids go back and all start catching it again in September.

For covid at least there should never be another lockdown again as there is no trade off, there litterally would be no reason other than we are scared.

It comes down to hospital capacity. When the hospitals/NHS can no longer cope that's when you'll get restrictions. Not just in the UK but everywhere else. That's why everywhere has locked down and had restrictions.

**What would you propose then? I mean, what would you seriously propose? There will always be new variants and vaccine effectiveness will only last a certain period of time. We can do annual booster shots for the vulnerable, sure, but we cannot carry on as we have been, with lockdowns and restrictions - this is as good as it's ever going to get.

Eventually the media will stop reporting on cases and deaths, and we will forget about it. People don't talk about the year the flu vaccine failed in 2018 because it wasn't widely reported. The media fuels the fear.

We need to get back to normal, boosters for vulnerable groups, precautions on a personal level where needed .. but on the whole, normality absolutely must return now, as there's nothing going to happen to make it any 'safer' than it is right now**

@LindaEllen

I completely agree with everything you say. The media coverage will get less and less. The way it’s going now thankfully- 30k infections and 50 deaths doesn’t equate to the same shock factor, as it previously did and is far more in line with normal flu deaths, which never ever gets reported.

The media certainly has a lot to answer to, fuelling this fire and making otherwise healthy 40 year olds absolutely terrified they are going to die…..

User136544

Hospital capacity isn't just about covid. As other posters have said, operations and appointments are backlogged.

How do you know the kids will start catching it September? How do you know, maybe people should stop catastrophing.

@MarshaBradyo

But of course by next summer, far more of the UK population will have been vaccinated

We’re at around 92% single dose now and still rising. We’re close to full vaccination, some won’t anyway.

But you want to delay until next summer? It’s not cost free

The 12 to 15 year olds won’t hold off getting it until Summer will they? Given how transmissible Delta is.

Isn't the 92% the adult population? I don't think we are currently close to full vaccination of the entire population

ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=People+vaccinated+%28by+dose%29&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~CAN~DEU~FRA~NLD~ITA~ESP~MLT~BEL~PRT~DNK~IRL~European+Union

70% partly vaccinated, 60% fully.
Think I read we need to get into the 80% range of fully vaccinated?

Yes 92% of adults single dose - not fully as in pp

But it indicates we will be very high in the coming weeks as second dose is administered.

Far in advance of next Summer, winter even.

So I still would say it’s bonkers to delay that long and keep restrictions which come with a cost.

Under 12 won’t have it so you are delaying for 12 to 15 who may not get vaccine anyway, and will have delta which us very transmissible.

I don’t that it’s a view from pp that is based on scientific reality actually.

I respect Whitty too, I just think the political scene in UK is what it is, and that sets certain parameters. We have the leaders we have, the electorate we have and the culture we have, and all of that contributes to where we are.

I am very glad the 100k cases did not materialise, even though I thought they potentially would. I do have a (moderately) pessimistic view, but am happy to benefit when things go better than I expect.

Australia and New Zealand weren't locked down all the time though so shouldn't they have had normal amounts of flu. So we should be able to have a reliable flu jab based on them.

I know that they managed to keep covid out mostly but flu should still have been circulating shouldn't it?

@minipie

Well far more than 21k die of cancer in a year, yet I don’t see many advocating taking more steps to prevent these deaths.

An even better comparison is with air pollution which is believed to cause premature death in about 40,000 each year. A few lockdowns per year would certainly help hugely with air pollution, and yet nobody says we should have lockdowns to avoid those deaths. Because usually we prioritise jobs, life, trade, mental health etc for the whole population over the prevention of every (possibly) preventable death. About time we do the same for covid.

Absolutely. But even asking people to stop churning out the shite from their hygge log burning stoves or start walking to local places if they are able to and you get the most colossal hissy fit. But apparently demanding that people remain indoors and out of the workplace has a nicer ring to it when you are protected from the cascade of unintended consequences.

@User135644

It's manageable at the moment. The issue is when the kids go back and all start catching it again in September.

Back in the winter there were 40k people in hospital with covid. We currently have 8 times less than that (5k ish). This is from a time where cases were around 50k a day ( 30 days ago). To reach the hospital levels of covid we had before we would need to be seeing 200k+ cases a day for a few days running, which just won't happen.

We have created this NHS backlog with lockdowns. Any future lockdowns will just increase this problem. Unless you are solely locking down so the NHS can catch up which will just never happen.

@CarlaH

Australia and New Zealand weren't locked down all the time though so shouldn't they have had normal amounts of flu. So we should be able to have a reliable flu jab based on them.

I know that they managed to keep covid out mostly but flu should still have been circulating shouldn't it?

No, they’ve had much less flu. www.smh.com.au/national/seasonal-flu-nowhere-to-be-seen-in-australia-20210612-p580gk.html

@Peteycat

User136544

Hospital capacity isn't just about covid. As other posters have said, operations and appointments are backlogged.

How do you know the kids will start catching it September? How do you know, maybe people should stop catastrophing.

As soon as the schools shut the case numbers dropped off a lot.

It stands to reason they'll fly back up when unvaccinated children are back in packed classrooms at the start of respiratory virus season (and University campuses).

Doing something now because you don;t want to wait is not a good scientific argument

But society isn't run according to 'scientific arguments'.

The economy, education, mental health, people's need to socialise and so much else also have to factor in. "The science" - which is always open to interpretation and practical application - is only one of the factors which need to be taken into account.

Keeping restrictions until 'next summer' - by which time another excuse will be found to postpone yet again - would have enormous costs for society.

@ParityJ What can be done to stop cancer? Are vaccines and hand washing useful for it? And social distancing? Can it be helped by very simple actions most people should be easily capable of?

But social distancing, hand washing etc., haven't stopped covid, have they? The only thing that has stopped and reduced the spread of covid has been lockdowns. Every time we've come out of lockdown, case numbers have risen fast again, even with other restrictions such as closed pubs/restaurants, etc.

We need to be realistic here. If we want to reduce covid infections and deaths, we need a lot more than masks and handwashing and social distancing. People need to be honest and accept that it means closing hospitality, stopping large sports gatherings, stopping theatres/cinemas and maybe as far as closing non essential shops, maybe even schools again.

Is that what they want?

I don't live my life being governed by science. There is a hell of a lot more to this situation than locking down. That is not the answer I'm afraid.

The amount of elderly people I know who are now completely agarophobic, or can't walk anymore is really upsetting me. Ladies who were well into their nineties, used to go out shopping, lunch or to garden centres are now unsteady on their feet from being trapped inside. How is that a good outcome?

I know a dentist who says small children are terrified of her. They haven't seen other adults most of their life. How is that a good outcome?

@Peteycat

I don't live my life being governed by science. There is a hell of a lot more to this situation than locking down. That is not the answer I'm afraid.

The amount of elderly people I know who are now completely agarophobic, or can't walk anymore is really upsetting me. Ladies who were well into their nineties, used to go out shopping, lunch or to garden centres are now unsteady on their feet from being trapped inside. How is that a good outcome?

I agree. My 80 year old MIL is a shadow of her former self because of shielding and the lockdowns. Pre Covid she was independent, went everywhere by bus, did her own shopping, went to the bank herself to pay bills & transfer money, sorted out her own medical appointments and prescriptions, etc.

She shielded due to covid (as instructed), we did her shopping for her, we sorted out her prescriptions, we helped her pay bills etc.

Now she's completely incapable of doing any of that herself. We take her to the bank and she stands at the counter, completely lost as to what she's there for. She runs out of tablets and doesn't know where/how to order her prescription. We've tried taking her shopping, but she doesn't know what she wants, has no idea where things may be (i.e. last time she was looking for milk in the soft drinks aisle!). She decided to go to town by bus, but couldn't find the bus stop, not that she'd taken her bus pass with her anyway.

Pre covid, momentum kept her going. She had her routines and coped with day to day stuff absolutely fine. Once she got out of the habit, she just can't get back to any of that.

@Tuba437

"We have created this NHS backlog with lockdowns"

The NHS backlog is not due to lockdowns. The backlog is due to the immense pressures placed on the system during periods of high COVID admissions. During these times, routine procedures need to be cancelled so that staff who usually work on more routine services can be redeployed to emergency areas (eg ITU) to deal with the increase in cases.

The doctors and clinical staff who are normally performing surgeries to treat cancer etc have not been sitting around on furlough. They have been working in COVID wards overrun with critically ill patients.

The only way for the NHS to catch up is to keep COVID numbers and hospitalisations low so that staff can continue to tackle the backlog instead of having to focus on keeping critically ill COVID patients alive.

Lockdown helps the NHS by reducing numbers in the community. Raging COVID cases hurt the NHS.

User 149 I'm so sorry to hear that about your mum. I truly hope she can get back to where she was before this. X

Whatshouldicallme, that is your opinion but I think you may find most people now are of a different opinion to you.

Doing something now because you don;t want to wait is not a good scientific argument

Agree up Iced post

Plus this doesn’t stack up using any argument. Scientific or otherwise.

Instead it sounds more like pp just want to do this with not much reason.