Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

[quote lannistunut]@Tuba437 the scientific community, including government advisors have accepted herd immunity is not possible due to the increased transmissibility of Delta.

Where have you plucked your figure of Not suggest sub 10k cases but 15-30k cases wouldn't be horrendous or unexpected from?

In winter it will circulate widely, more widely than now. Whether that translates to hospitalisations remains to be seen, but I am not sure anyone is really expecting cases to come down.[/quote]
Why all the talk about seasonality. Super hot countries like Brazil and Jamaica etc are having clear waves and the climate is fairly similar all year.

If herd immunity is not possible then all the more reason to get on with life. We have protected who needed protecting and will co tinge to do so with boosters for years to come. What more do you want?

@lannistunut so turning down the COVID vaccine for children makes someone an ‘anti-vaxxer’ now? Don’t be ridiculous.

A recent study showed that children were at low risk of serious long term complications too.

www.kcl.ac.uk/news/long-covid-uncommon-in-children

@lannistunut well I work in aviation so my work life has been hit pretty hard currently.

@Mybalconyiscracking

Frankly I hope so! Apologies if that offends anyone but my priority now is my teens. They need their lives back and a shot at a decent future.

Yes, that is offensive. All ages matter.

@Blinky21

Not heard of 'long flu' causing disability though. The fact that other countries have such lower death rates than ours shows we shouldn't have to tolerate the number that we have

Long flu?

www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-17497-6

@Tuba437 I am not really sure what to say. You're not legally required to understand/believe the science, but surely you can see that because what you are thinking/saying has no scientific grounding, it is meaningless?

The CMO has explained cases will likely rise in winter, as with other respiratory illnesses and in part simply due to everyone being indoors with shut windows.

If herd immunity is not possible then it means more caution is needed - because we are more likely to get a bad variant if it is circulating very widely. The way to deal with that is monitor some cases.

These things are just scientific facts. Why waste your energy trying to believe something that is not true? The government may do away with testing. The government have been wrong all the way through this.

[quote Tuba437]@lannistunut well I work in aviation so my work life has been hit pretty hard currently.[/quote]
My DH lost his job too.

Is your loss of income why you want rid of restrictions? If so that would make sense - but still wouldn't mean it was sensible.

[quote bumbleymummy]@lannistunut so turning down the COVID vaccine for children makes someone an ‘anti-vaxxer’ now? Don’t be ridiculous.

A recent study showed that children were at low risk of serious long term complications too.

www.kcl.ac.uk/news/long-covid-uncommon-in-children[/quote]
I do not know if you are generally opposed to the vaccines or not? I was only going on you opposing them in your post.

UK is an outlier, almost all other countries with the means are vaccinating those over 12, to protect both them and the wider community.

The vast majority of parents of secondary aged kids would vaccinate their child. UK children should be able to access the vaccines.

I think we just have to get on with life
We can't financially afford any more lockdowns
Also potential explosion of mental health issues

@lannistunut well then you shouldn’t generalise and refer to people as ‘anti-vaxx’.

Perhaps a lot of parents aren’t aware how low risk children their children are? Or how many of them are already immune after being infected.

The UK or anywhere should not even be thinking about vaxxing children.

Ianistunnut the majority of parents of secondary age kids would NOT vaccinate their child. Who told you this?
Have you done a survey monkey?

Herd immunity isn't possible with Delta, @Tuba437.

www.politico.eu/article/herd-immunity-not-a-possibility-with-delta-variant/

www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1933

It really makes no difference if a person is anti vaxx as you label it. What matters is the welfare of children. A parent may wish to have the injection themselves. Their choice. The same parent may choose to not vaccinate their child. What label do you want to call them?

@Peteycat

Ianistunnut the majority of parents of secondary age kids would NOT vaccinate their child. Who told you this? Have you done a survey monkey?

the boradcast media told me this, there was opinion polling. Do you not believe in opinion polling, as well as published government stats?

Why are you opposed to an optional vaccine? Your child would not have to take it. My child is none of your concern.

Contacts have been found to have decreased since schools closed, @Quartz2208.

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/comix/Comix%20Weekly%20Report%2071.pdf

[quote bumbleymummy]@lannistunut well then you shouldn’t generalise and refer to people as ‘anti-vaxx’.

Perhaps a lot of parents aren’t aware how low risk children their children are? Or how many of them are already immune after being infected.[/quote]
It is hardly a huge insult, and you did sound rather opposed to the vaccine.

@powershowerforanhour

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths.

Of covid or with covid?

Precisely. You're not a Covid denier by the way as I see someone else has said further down thread.

@Peteycat

The UK or anywhere should not even be thinking about vaxxing children.

They have already done it in the US, Israel, Canada, Europe

If your child is none of my concern, why are you so interested if I am opposed or not to the vaccine?? If I can't be a busybody, neither can you!

Well no its not a huge insult I suppose, however I would like to think I'm a non judgmental, reasonable human that doesn't label or call names. I just calmly point out when others do because I don't think it's very nice. So I let you know.

@Peteycat

If your child is none of my concern, why are you so interested if I am opposed or not to the vaccine?? If I can't be a busybody, neither can you!

I'm not interested in what you would choose, I do not understand why it would matter to you if the choice existed.

You do seem very cross!

@Peteycat

Well no its not a huge insult I suppose, however I would like to think I'm a non judgmental, reasonable human that doesn't label or call names. I just calmly point out when others do because I don't think it's very nice. So I let you know.

I disagree with 'calmly'

@NannyAndJohn

What people are failing to realise is that this 30000 a day (which by itself is catastrophic) is merely the floor.

We are currently in the height of summer with minimal indoor mixing thanks to palatable weather and schools and universities being on holiday. When they return, and combining this with the start of flu season and waning vaccine immunity, it's going to be carnage.

Last summer cases were 100 times less than they are now. Remember what happened next?

Also - Variants and Long Covid.

@NannyAndJohn you are never happier than when predicting sky high cases. Monthly you’ve been almost gleefully predicting 100k a day cases which have not materialised. When will you accept that things might be on the mend?

You are interested because a few posts up you ask twice, once to me and once to another poster if we are opposed to the vaccine.

I'm not cross BTW! I'm allowed a different opinion to you! That doesn't mean I'm cross!