Will this level of cases now just be acceptable?

[Tuba437]

Just having a think to myself. We're now at around 30k cases a day in general. The 7 day average daily deaths is about 89 (this was for around 45-50k cases a day). We can assume that I a month or so deaths will be at around 60 a day.

Over a year that works out at about 21k worth of deaths. Will this just be the acceptable number. We know the vaccine doesn't stop the spread so I highly doubt were ever just going to get down to sub 5k cases a day again.

21k is considered a very mild flu death rate for the year. We have a new virus around now so more deaths a year are going to be a thing whether we like it or not.

I also think red list countries should only be for countries with worrying variants. If I don't have to isolate if my wife tests positive (just daily testing) then why on earth would I have to spend 1500 on a government hotel to quarantine as I've been to a country with a lower covid rate than us?

Sorry about the rant.

I meant that sitting in the gazebo is objectively less risky/sensible than sitting indoors

And only eating at home, with your own family, is objectively less risky than eating in the gazebo.

This thread is getting a bit silly.

There is nothing wrong with eating inside. Yes, it is ‘riskier’, but it is within the parameters of what we are allowed to do, and allows an important sector of the economy to survive.

What is silly is people not wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces (such as the tube, where it is actually still mandatory) or a theatre. This is a low level inconvenience and protects you and others, as well as making many feel more comfortable.

Equally, giving people you don’t know space is sensible and considerate, no more than expecting men not to ‘manspread’.

It is all about balancing health and ‘life’ and getting to a sensible compromise (some of the government’s weird contradictory advice and outright hypocrisy has not helped).

It's not silly for people to not wear masks. Who told you that none sense?

It may be a low level inconvenience for you, but for others a very different story.

Not everyone has to make others feel comfortable as you say, if it is detrimental to their wellbeing.

Nonsense meant to say**

I will not wear a mask. It is not a low level inconvenience, it's a real struggle for many people, it's unnatural and mostly ineffective.

thank you traumatised noodle

@Peteycat,

This aversion to masks is very Anglo Saxon

There just does not seem to be an issue with them in Asia or even France.

I don’t know why so many in UK and US have a massive issue with masks. I suspect it may be correlated to our high level of obesity.

And they do work, all recent studies have shown that they reduce transmission.

I think I agree, in that while it is fairly easy to 'rank' risks - 'It is riskier to eat indoors than outside' - the value judgement that puts a specific line in place 'It is risky to eat inside so it is sensible to eat outside' is subjective and personal.

It's particularly difficult when, as is inevitably the case in real life, there are multiple factors in play - 'It is riskier to eat inside, but since X is in a wheelchair and therefore relatively immobile and tends to chill, and it's a cold day, on the balance of risks we are choosing to eat inside today', or 'I am OK with a party of 30 18 year olds but a family party of 30, including some very elderly great grandparents, we may choose to add further risk mitigating measures'.

As all these are allowable within the law, it becomes a matter of personal choice and risk assessment, rather than there being an absolute line between 'risky;' and 'safe' or 'sensible' and 'not sensible'.

this is getting a bit silly

Yes, people will be arguing that not eating at all would be safer soon.

These are the 3 Cs mentioned by JVT, which is a good way of thinking about it.

www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2020/10/12/what-are-the-three-cs-mentioned-by-professor-jonathan-van-tam/

what are the three Cs?

– Closed spaces: it cannot be assumed that large rooms are safe, or that small rooms are unsafe. Instead, ventilation is very important.

– Crowded places: avoiding crowded spaces and making room for other people – ideally two metres or more.

– Close contact settings – avoiding conversations in close contact settings, as the virus can be spread through droplets created by speech.

It's not an absolute rule and isn't law. These are scientifically based recommendations for avoiding getting infected with respiratory type infections and avoiding passing on infection, as much as is feasibly possible. If you can. While getting on with your life.

The thing about science-based principles is that even if you don't like them much, and even if they aren't currently they still remain inconveniently rather true, insofar as they as evidence-based. Science tends to be like that.

[quote TheReluctantPhoenix]@Peteycat,

This aversion to masks is very Anglo Saxon

There just does not seem to be an issue with them in Asia or even France.

I don’t know why so many in UK and US have a massive issue with masks. I suspect it may be correlated to our high level of obesity.

And they do work, all recent studies have shown that they reduce transmission.[/quote]
Very, very sadly, it seems to have become party political.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/aug/18/ministers-accused-of-putting-staff-at-risk-by-not-wearing-masks-in-commons

I was thinking this morning that we need some advertising encouraging mask-wearing as the polite and British thing to do, Like queueing, apologising profusely to each other as you gesture for the other person to go first, drinking tea and listening to the Shipping Forecast.

oh and I meant to write "even if they aren't currently enforced by law" in the last but 1 post.

By all means wear a mask, but please stop moaning about others not wearing them. I'm lost for words with the Anglo Saxon comment.

BTW I'm not obese or overweight. I see fat people, skinny people and average weight people mask less.

Your doing that judgy thing again.

I don’t know why so many in UK and US have a massive issue with masks. I suspect it may be correlated to our high level of obesity

Do you understand why human beings have faces???? Or do you just find them totally redundant? Honestly people are out of their minds.

Bizawit good post. We will end up with a generation who can't read facial expressions.

@Peteycat

By all means wear a mask, but please stop moaning about others not wearing them. I'm lost for words with the Anglo Saxon comment.

BTW I'm not obese or overweight. I see fat people, skinny people and average weight people mask less.

Your doing that judgy thing again.

It's hilarious how people on MN think that only people in GB have a 'problem' with masks and that in every single other country everyone is amazingly 'mask compliant'.

In reality, most British people wear masks when they're compulsory, but many don't when they're not. Similar to most parts of the world I should imagine.

The obesity comment is idiotic and yes, very judgy.

I think this is like any situation in life. You get your finger pointers and curtain twitches. I'm just glad I'm not like that. Can't say I never judge, but I try my best not to on a very conscious level.

It's interesting that the most judgemental posts on here seem to be by posters accusing other posters of ...being judgemental.

Herecomethsun, I will say someone is judging if they are. Others agree with me.

@Peteycat

Herecomethsun, I will say someone is judging if they are. Others agree with me.

You get your finger pointers and curtain twitches. I'm just glad I'm not like that.

Can you not see that this is very judgemental?

Thought the ONS data released today about mask wearing was very interesting - that 9 in 10 people are still wearing face coverings at least some of the time. 89% said they'd work a mask while outside the home in the last week. 91% said wearing one while shopping was important. 87%, interestingly, said that social distancing from people not in their own home was also important.

Really highlights that the non-mask wearers (and I do not include those exempt for genuine reasons in this) are just a noisy minority.

Really highlights that the non-mask wearers (and I do not include those exempt for genuine reasons in this) are just a noisy minority

No it doesn't. It highlights that a small amount of people are asked a question and they know the "right" answer to give so they give it.

The numbers over the past week aren't that encouraging atm.

It remains to be seen what happens in a couple of weeks but the Scottish data has picked up loads of new cases in the 10 - 19 age group as schools have had back to school testing a week or so ago. Thats a mixed bag because it suggests that theres been a lot of undetected cases going on (note here that there hasn't been too much of a shift in hospital cases yet).

The english data has picked up a big spike in this age group in the SW and the SE last week. This hasn't been replicated in other areas yet though so its something of a curiosity still and it needs to be determined whats going on.

And after something of a dip in hospitalisations, numbers are starting to creep up in England again.

This could be behavioural complacency creeping in or weather related somehow (its been wet in the north of England but not as dreadful as the se or sw i believe). We don't know.

I have always been fine about the reopening and thought it necessary but have always been slightly nervy about September / October.

And i have to say that I'm beginning to start to definitely feel that. Moderate data commentators on tweeter who have been reasonable fine about the schedule are also starting to get nervy too which isn't helping.

The data on waning immunity is making me nervy too, when there seems to suddenly be a dithering and hesitation on this put of the blue. And theres a nervousness about Delta and children starting to creep in.

I wouldn't be at all surprised by the announcement of a vaccination role out to 12 - 15 year olds in the coming couple of weeks which delays a booster programme starting - at least for the 50 - 60year old group.

I also am expecting the booster programme to be a cross dose programme where if you have had pfizer you get AZ and vice versa in over 50s. Where it gets more tricky is what do you do for under 40s who had Pfizer but are either vulnerable or key workers so eligible for a booster. The data seems to suggest that Pfizers effectiveness drops more steeply than AZ so although its initially more efficient that AZ it doesn't seem to last as long and AZ has greater longevity. Research also seems to be hinting that AZ is better for T Cell immunity.

So i think theres a lot of things hanging slightly in the balance atm and the numbers are not quite on the side of things that I and others (who i regard as quite sensible headed) would like.

Going into Autumn that raises more questions than Id like. The case rate itself isnt something im overly concerned about. Id like it to be lower. Whats bothering me is the direction of travel, and where its likely to go in the next couple of weeks and months.

I think half term could yet prove to be rather more fraught than im comfortable with. And certainly going into December and January im definitely feeling considerably more anxious than i was a fortnight ago.

I basically think we are just hitting choppy waters and the plain sailing is about to be cut short.

Make the most of the next 10 days - 14 days. September could get 'interesting'.

That's interesting [smaile]

Do you have a link?

The spike is largely it seems due to Boardmasters festival in Cornwall, with the biggest spike in SW and next biggest in SE - most of the festival goers unvaccinated 15-18 year olds. There is a Twitter thread on this linked on the data thread

twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1428407480556601345

@Ontopofthesunset,

There were an estimated 53,000 attendees at the Boardmasters’ festival, so unless they virtually all got COVID, it is unlikely to account for a national spike.