Australia in a mess - NZ with a plan

[StartupRepair]

More than half of Australia is in lockdown now, sparked (imo) by the intransigence of the NSW Premier who ignored all warnings about Delta. Our procurement of and messaging around vaccines has been dangerously incompetent.
It all feels a bit bleak today. At least NZ seems to have a plan.

Why has Australia been so slow to vaccinate? It is the size of the country?

Sorry for my ignorance - I've been trying not to look at corona news!

@sashagabadon

It’s quite annoying from a U.K. POV to see Australia and NZ now pivot to following the U.K. vaccine policies. Both countries were hugely publicly critical of our emergency approval of the vaccine ( we’ll sit back with front row seats, it’s not a race etc) and the dosing gap / possible mix and match ( WE will follow the manufacturer) but now both 180 degree flip. Perhaps a message to learn generally is don’t comment negatively publicly on other countries when you don’t really understand what you are commenting on to avoid egg on face when you copy them.

None of that rings any bells

Firstly, Australia and New Zealand are separate and distinct countries that are independently governed. They have employed different tactics to manage the pandemic. So very ignorant of you to roll them into one.

Secondly, NZ is not critical of the UK vaccine roll-out. Goodness, it's weird the way so many posters think other countries are focused on the UK. They're not. Generally countries are busy enough with their own stuff.

And NZ is not "copying" the UK system. What a silly thing to say. Are you 11?

An outsider perspective on Australia by the way. Covid is highly transmissible, Delta moreso than other variants that have come along so far. Criticising any governments for a few hundred cases per day, especially when you consider the built-up nature of NSW, seems grossly unfair. We see it in the UK all the time with the same more deprived communities being hit over and over; because it spreads more easily with lots of household members, close living with shared spaces around flats, and people who have to work out of the home in close proximity with many others. It spreads through superspreaders more than each individual infection; when just one is missed who has higher infectivity you will get tens of infections. It's hard to see what the Australian path out can be if people can't tolerate any cases, because as above it is now impossible to only vaccinate your way through.

@Shellfishblastard the slow rollout was based on all eggs in the SZ basket. We produce it here.

They were slow off the mark and then when the clotting risk came up they did a 180 and said only over 60s could have it.

Then we couldn't get enough Pfizer because of long wait times,

Nobody really cared because we had lived almost Covid free since may last year, almost no lockdowns except the poor victorians of course.

Now of course delta is here and we are struggling to suppress it, cases are rising daily and there's urgency we didn't feel before.

@MRex the party line still has to be zero Covid as that's the federal government plan, however I doubt NSW willl ever be back down to that again.

I expect it's suppress as best we can while still keeping the economy going on a skeletal crew, hit our vaccination targets and say great, let's get on with it.

The hatchet job on AZ was a grave mistake. Presumably Aus could have had a very significant proportion of the country jabbed by now if they’d avoided that and prioritised vaccination.

Absolutely, you are right but at the time the risk from serious illness from the vaccine was greater than the risk of Covid. That only changed with the introduction of the delta variant. You have to make allowances for the psychological impact.

Hindsight in this pandemic I think we can all agree is a wonderful thing

I cannot see NZ ever being able to open it's borders. Even if they achieved 100% vaccination the vaccine does not prevent infection with Delta. In most cases it prevents hospitalisation but it would still rip through the country.
Anecdotally I know more people now with covid than at any time in the pandemic, all of whom are fully jabbed. Including me.

50ShadesOfCatholic

Goodness, it's weird the way so many posters think other countries are focused on the UK. They're not. Generally countries are busy enough with their own stuff.

I don't think that NZ is totally focused on the UK, but they definitely talk about it. I watched the two hour live stream with the main scientists and Jacinda Ardern this week and the UK was mentioned a lot, not always favourably.

@CatAlice

I cannot see NZ ever being able to open it's borders. Even if they achieved 100% vaccination the vaccine does not prevent infection with Delta. In most cases it prevents hospitalisation but it would still rip through the country. Anecdotally I know more people now with covid than at any time in the pandemic, all of whom are fully jabbed. Including me.

I cannot imagine a double vaccinated population continuing to repeat lock down when the freedoms granted are no more than in other countries.

In fact less if you count strict border control.

I think it’ll be a gradual switch but I’m surprised JA said crush it still. I wonder when that will be dropped from speeches etc

I don't know enough about the different approaches to have an informed opinion, but wasn't Australia initially one of the countries help up as a good example of how things should be done.

It seems those countries that did best early on are suffering most now?

NZ are now extending the dose gap from 3 to 6 weeks despite Jacinda publicly declaring that NZ would follow the manufacture guidelines. That is most definitely copying the U.K. whether it can be openly admitted or not. My point is that Jacinda should not have commented at all negatively about the U.K. extending the gap when she did as now she has rowed back from that position. A wiser head would have said nothing at the time the U.K. made the announcement. It’s all politics.
The health officer Skegg I think his name is, in NZ has only this week said that NZ “allies” have let NZ down. I presume he is referring to the U.K.and Us and maybe Australia. Why make that comment? It lacks political nous and seems an idiotic thing to say when you have no idea yourself how Covid will play out over the next year in your own country.
Hipkins the health minister commented negatively on the U.K.” freedom “ day. Also foolish when you cannot be sure NZ will ever get to the vaccination levels of the U.K. to enable your own country to open up. What if you don’t?

I think it was always fairly clear that the most difficult period for any country with a zero covid strategy would be the exit. It's why I have always found it a bit frustrating when definitive comparisons have been/are made now between zero covid/other strategy countries when all strategies are still partway through.

The U.K. exit wave was fairly significant in terms of case numbers and that wave was limited by both vaccination and natural infection immunity (I think more than 90% of the population is expected to have covid antibodies).

Aus and NZ will obviously have almost zero naturally acquired immunity so it seems likely that the exit wave in those countries will be more significant. Hopefully the vaccines will minimise severe cases/deaths sufficiently well enough for it to be manageable in terms of healthcare provision. I think it will be an adjustment psychologically though.

Absolutely, you are right but at the time the risk from serious illness from the vaccine was greater than the risk of Covid

But that’s not how the risk profile of vaccines work. In the case of most vaccines it’s about guarding against future exposure, not playing off risk right now.

With something as contagious as covid, it feels like a grave error of judgement.

@ExpressDelivery

I don't know enough about the different approaches to have an informed opinion, but wasn't Australia initially one of the countries help up as a good example of how things should be done.

It seems those countries that did best early on are suffering most now?

"Suffering most" is a relative term. Go and say that in Indonesia, Namibia, etc...! Australia has a few cases and are struggling with the psychological impact rather than the care of those patients; even by 100k population there aren't nearly as many severely unwell as in the UK right now. Both Australia and New Zealand are lagging in vaccination, but that's because the Australian vaccine didn't work so they were later in the queue, as well as because low infection rates encourage too relaxed an attitude to vaccination among the public. Suffering is being caused by conflicting aims and demands, as well as nobody wanting to admit and accept that there will ultimately be covid deaths, they just get to pick the timing to minimise them.

I'm unable to retain from commenting there has also been severe suffering of children and parents kept apart by the intolerable border policies, as well as adult families kept apart. I have a couple of friends who are severely struggling from this policy. But that's a side issue. Maybe.

*refrain not retain!

You’ve had 16 months living a more ‘normal’ life than most of the world and it’s fair to say that what works for one country, won’t work for another anyway. One ‘wrong’ decision can be disastrous but can equally turn out to be a blessing in disguise in the long term - people will be able to judge it in 20 years, I guess.

This might be a silly question, but if the aim is now to vaccinate people and then open borders again, how are people in Australia feeling about Covid flying around unchecked? Psychologically, it will be very challenging as the control has gone and the vaccines reduce risk rather than eliminating risk. Do you think people are ready to accept this or will there be a fight to keep borders really controlled for longer? Also, if anyone could explain what NZ’s long term plans are, I would be interested to hear. If it is ‘zero Covid’, will borders remain closed for years? Apologies for my ignorance and I could Google it but thought this thread was interesting as it shows the thoughts of people who are in NZ and Australia.

@Sunshinegirl82

I think it was always fairly clear that the most difficult period for any country with a zero covid strategy would be the exit. It's why I have always found it a bit frustrating when definitive comparisons have been/are made now between zero covid/other strategy countries when all strategies are still partway through.

The U.K. exit wave was fairly significant in terms of case numbers and that wave was limited by both vaccination and natural infection immunity (I think more than 90% of the population is expected to have covid antibodies).

Aus and NZ will obviously have almost zero naturally acquired immunity so it seems likely that the exit wave in those countries will be more significant. Hopefully the vaccines will minimise severe cases/deaths sufficiently well enough for it to be manageable in terms of healthcare provision. I think it will be an adjustment psychologically though.

I agree with this. It’ll be a tough few months in New South Wales while the vaccine is rolled out, but I think the fact that Australia and NZ avoided spread at a time when there was no vaccine means they won’t suffer the death toll that the UK (and a lot of Europe) has. Moving from no community transmission to community transmission but with vaccines will be an adjustment but it had to come sooner or later.

@sashagabadon I don’t think they have egg on their faces! I have elderly relatives in Australia, who would be vulnerable to covid and I’m really happy that the Oz strategy has meant that they weren’t exposed to covid in pre-vaccine times.

@ExpressDelivery

I don't know enough about the different approaches to have an informed opinion, but wasn't Australia initially one of the countries help up as a good example of how things should be done.

It seems those countries that did best early on are suffering most now?

Here we go again.

I really wish people who know nothing about Australian culture, geography, politics or health care would stop commenting this shit on these threads.

Just like London isn't the only place in the UK, Sydney isn't the whole of Australia.

No, we're not fucked. No, we don't wish we were the UK. No, there's no animosity between states.

I think if any of the other states had taken in the enormous number of returning travellers, etc, as NSW - in particular, Sydney - did, they would be most likely struggling with their own outbreaks.

That's a very generous interpretation, IMO. Given one decent face mask and one mandatory jab, Australia might look quite different at the minute.

(Tired of all the "heavy lifting" rhetoric too, FWIW - ever think of doing it properly? Rgds, millions of fed-up Melbourne residents)

I wondered if the move from 3 to 6 week gap between vaccinations was as a result of the Tauranga situation that unfolded over the last week. That was a close call and I reckon it stirred things up a bit.

@userhuman I don't know how you got any of that from my post.

NZ news is full of U.K. and US stories. They follow the royals more than we do here. At least their news outlets do, even if the people themselves don’t. Anyone saying the opposite just needs to look at any NZ news website.
I have relatives in NZ and they have spent the last year telling my mother what is happening in the U.K. and what a shambles it is from NZ new sites. They still think the same now but they still have a very 2020 mindset where they think the world looks enviously at them and that the world is moving on. My mother told my aunt of her September travels in Germany on a river cruise and they can’t believe it will happen but I am 100% sure it will. My NZ cousin has plans to come to Scotland for the Edinburgh festival in 2022. I am pretty convinced he has no chance of returning to NZ without MIQ whereas he thinks he will. We have a £50 bet is on!

No, there's no animosity between states.

Except a bit surfacing on here?

Although I get it. When coronavirus appears it can be natural to look for blame.

It’s a natural health crisis, which can be managed to a certain degree but not always contained, but we’ve had a good year of people talking about U.K. negatively.

From here and o/s. Personally I found it irritating, all those who would post ‘watching in horror’. Finally, we’ve moved out if it tg.

Rgds, millions of fed-up Melbourne residents

Okay...? I'm not actually Gladys.