Australia in a mess - NZ with a plan

[StartupRepair]

More than half of Australia is in lockdown now, sparked (imo) by the intransigence of the NSW Premier who ignored all warnings about Delta. Our procurement of and messaging around vaccines has been dangerously incompetent.
It all feels a bit bleak today. At least NZ seems to have a plan.

And imo NSW is where we were last year early on - at the point where cases outrun lockdown and tracing.

It is very easy to lose control of it. It was less transmissible but we had new cases arriving daily. Even if borders were shut we’d still have had this from food / freight transport.

Like a slow moving tsunami countries further away will be granted more time to gather together and learn from others by the time it hits. Whereas Europe and NYC were first.

It’s a paradox but a delta outbreak could be the best thing ultimately for NSW. Vaccination rates have shot up there since the outbreak. They have the highest rates in Australia and if they carry on they’ll reach a good level of vaccination quicker than anyone else. If you take the view that Covid is here to stay whatever you do and everyone in the world will catch it possibly multiple times over the next few years ( which I do) then arguably there is little to be gained, in a post vaccine world, from delaying the hard work of achieving a reasonable level of community immunity ideally with vaccines uptake. I think they are something like 50% adult single jabbed now which is not bad going (and they have delta to thank for that.)

Tatty we have relatives in the 6 lockdown area too and I agree they will be gettibg lockdown fatigue beforr even starting ther exit wave (and being unaware what that will entail I think.) It seems to me their media has been v anti uk throughout though as although v educated they have come out with some really bizarre criticisms of the uk (as well as the mn favourite "looking on in horror " at our unlocking. Without realising our set of circumstances and desire not to be locked down forever. Im not a big boris fan (understatement) but agreed with the "if not now (high vax, summer etx) when?" Statement. Also aware of other rising costs economic/mental health/businesses..)

Apologies a the missed letter typing on my phone . 🤦🏼‍♀️

Hope this gets approved and fast-tracked:

www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/csl-s-planned-mrna-factories-would-produce-50-million-doses-in-four-months-20210813-p58ijz.html

Yes to the "looking on in horror" type sentiment - for some there is some horror, others slight bewilderment and others somewhere between disbelief and envy (not suggesting there is loads of envy - I hate that arrogant concept and Australia's government have said too many times the word "envy" - but there is a little among a few, for instance my cousin, a travel agent, who is not particularly risk averse and does want to get on with things).

The main thing that causes the bewilderment is that fetishising of cases that can happen. We do that here a bit too of course, but if you do live in the UK you at least realise that many of those positives are from asymptomatic lateral flows for work, post holiday PCRs, no idea I had it but had to have a scan on my ankle and the swabbed me before they'd see me type scenarios.

It seems over there you get a PCR if you have symptoms, or perhaps if you have visited an exposure site or been a close contact but obviously the criteria is different here.

When my daughter got it they immediately assumed she was very ill and I had to put them straight and say no, she's 11, and doesn't have any symptoms at all. "How did she find out then" etc and I had to explain how her bubble at school burst and I tested her out of curiosity. My brother in Western Australia could not understand why the dentist would perform a tooth extraction on her on her 2nd day out of quarantine after "recovering". And he couldn't fathom us going to Europe on holiday the following month, or that we didn't go on to get it, which I admit was lucky!

It's all mindset really - in terms of personal mindset, it is shaped by what's around you, your own particular perception of risk and your news sources so there's no right or wrong really but the one thing we are all going to have to accept eventually is that it is here to stay.

NZ has been able to pursue a policy of elimination due to geographical isolation and a high level of self-sufficiency. They should have taken further advantage of this and started vaccinating people earlier and in higher numbers.

How many more times do we have to go through this? You can't vaccinate until the vaccine arrives in the country - what do you think they did in NZ, stockpile the vaccines in a warehouse somewhere?? We always knew the bulk wasn't arriving until late July, and yet somehow you expect miracles.

I think WA has quite a different attitude or mindset to Covid than say NSW, we have had ongoing outbreaks throughout which until now we have managed well. WA has barely had any cases at all.

I think as some pp have pointed out, it takes a very real outbreak to change the thinking, we have been in lockdown for 9 weeks (I think?) I've stopped counting, I'm pretty doubtful we will ever get to zero again so mindset has shifted to how do we reopen safely (vaccinate) and realisation that lockdown fatigue is well and truly here and we just want out.

I'm not sure how WA will cope with reopening when we get to 80% vax rate and international travel is to resume, at that point it will spread and not much can be done but prepare out healthcare system to cope.

I'm in my sixth lockdown here in Melbourne. Coming up to a total of 200 days. We have worked hard to stop the virus running rampant through out most vulnerable communities but our Federal government has not done their job and secured the. Vaccines in time. We could have all been vaccinated months ago.

It seems to me a bit that the rest of Australia is looking at NSW the same way Australia in general looked at the U.K. in 2020.
NSW will then get through the Covid tunnel to good immunity in the same way the U.K. has done and will in turn achieve the same mindset the U.K. has now.
The tables will then turn again to NSW looking at the rest of Australia with a “well what are you going to do now? We want to open up” attitude, similar to how the U.K. looks at Australia now.
Australia will eventually then look over at NZ still trying to maintain zero Covid and say “ well what are you going to do now?”
It’s the Covid attitude circle of life

The NSW government can't be trusted to control Delta so I think a lot of the vaccine hesitant will be running to get any vaxx available before it inevitably spreads here to Victoria and our numbers grow yet again.
Very sympathetic to all in NSW.

I just can't wait to book flights back home to the UK to see my family! It will have been 3.5 long years.

Yup, the only way is through now.

I am in Sydney, pretty much everyone I speak to has had at least one vaccine, some two and while most are OK with locking down to give everyone else a chance to get a jab, there is very much the expectation that after that 'we will take our chances'.

The other states will do the same eventually. We held it off well, but zero covid is over now.

Agree! Everyone I know is 1 or 2 vaccines down or waiting for their apt. I don't know anyone not eager to have it.

And yes, we can all see the only way out is for vaccinations to be done and then expect we will all likely then catch it at some point over the next six months, hopefully milder though if vaxxed.

Pleased to hear that mnetters in Oz are getting the vaccinations.
At what point have they suggested that things can open up again? Unlike the UK few Australians will have developed immunity through infection which is surely going to make it all very dicey.
I read this morning that in the UK in early July up to 63% of 16-17 year olds now have antibodies. Hardly any of them will have had the vaccine in early July. That’s a heck of a lot of poorly kids.

@TattyDevine

Yes to the "looking on in horror" type sentiment - for some there is some horror, others slight bewilderment and others somewhere between disbelief and envy (not suggesting there is loads of envy - I hate that arrogant concept and Australia's government have said too many times the word "envy" - but there is a little among a few, for instance my cousin, a travel agent, who is not particularly risk averse and does want to get on with things).

The main thing that causes the bewilderment is that fetishising of cases that can happen. We do that here a bit too of course, but if you do live in the UK you at least realise that many of those positives are from asymptomatic lateral flows for work, post holiday PCRs, no idea I had it but had to have a scan on my ankle and the swabbed me before they'd see me type scenarios.

It seems over there you get a PCR if you have symptoms, or perhaps if you have visited an exposure site or been a close contact but obviously the criteria is different here.

When my daughter got it they immediately assumed she was very ill and I had to put them straight and say no, she's 11, and doesn't have any symptoms at all. "How did she find out then" etc and I had to explain how her bubble at school burst and I tested her out of curiosity. My brother in Western Australia could not understand why the dentist would perform a tooth extraction on her on her 2nd day out of quarantine after "recovering". And he couldn't fathom us going to Europe on holiday the following month, or that we didn't go on to get it, which I admit was lucky!

It's all mindset really - in terms of personal mindset, it is shaped by what's around you, your own particular perception of risk and your news sources so there's no right or wrong really but the one thing we are all going to have to accept eventually is that it is here to stay.

My family is very much of the ‘looking at horror at the rest of the world’ types. Neither of my parents have ever travelled outside of Australia.

I tried to argue that once vaccine levels are high enough we just need to get on with life and accept that even if vaccinated, we’ll all get Covid eventually. They of course thought my attitude was extremely cavalier and wishing certain death on people. My mum also told me, ‘I don’t feel restricted at all’. That’s easy for a retired person but don’t young people deserve to live their lives, travel, go to clubs and festivals etc even if she’s happy pottering around at home?

One thing that helped me that whilst I am Aus / Brit in London my family are English in Aus. So at least they didn’t do the same level of watching in horror stuff. As they get the geographical differences.

Although I did laugh with them at the beginning that they couldn’t live somewhere safer in a pandemic. Which has pretty much held.

@Emsmaman

By this logic wouldn't everyone be in permanent lockdown? I'm shocked that Australians aren't questioning this more tbh (well aware some are but majority support it). I'm an Australian in England so well aware of the issues.

There are some of us in Australia that question the Covid hysteria here but it’s hard to voice your opinion without being called a granny killer or being told ‘do you want to be like US, India etc’.

When you’re retired or work from a large home it’s easy to forget the real harm lockdowns are doing. If nothing else we’ll run out of money to fund all this eventually.

We have two levels of vaccination in the roadmap out set by the federal gov, 70% where lockdowns are a last resort and vaccinated have more freedoms, then at 80% borders begin to reopen.

@beingsunny

We have two levels of vaccination in the roadmap out set by the federal gov, 70% where lockdowns are a last resort and vaccinated have more freedoms, then at 80% borders begin to reopen.

Only problem with this is we all know that some premiers are going to take no notice of the roadmap. Mark McGown in WA has already said he’ll still have lockdowns with 80% vaccinated.

Yeah, I'm not really sure how that works in the longer term. My partner is Australian and keeps saying the state premiers have all the power, seems crazy that half the country can decide to remain closed for years to come and the prime minister can't do anything about it. I'm still confused at times by Australian politics

80% is an over simplistic approach, and is under estimating the impact on remote rural and indigenous communities, as can be seen by today the AMA stating today that NSW healthcare can no longer manage now that its reached Dubbo and the regions. There needs to be a concerted effort to overcome the perfectly understandable distrust of the government. NT has had success with payment for vaccines and involving Aboriginal elders, the federal and other state governments should consider something similar.

The states all have very different needs and geography. WA is by far the biggest state, to give you context its over 20 times size of England, with 3 million population. Getting healthcare to remote communities is extremely difficult to manage, and the risks of it getting to them is exacerbated by the fact that a lot of the FIFO town hubs also cater for the indigenous communities. Economically WA has actual been doing well, lots of companies have mandated FIFO now be based in the state, and all the CUBS ( cashed up bogans) can't spend their money on Bali holidays.

@beingsunny

Yeah, I'm not really sure how that works in the longer term. My partner is Australian and keeps saying the state premiers have all the power, seems crazy that half the country can decide to remain closed for years to come and the prime minister can't do anything about it. I'm still confused at times by Australian politics

Believe me, Australians are confused by Australian politics too

This is how they will get to 80% vaccinated. No jab no work!
In regards to testing, in order to leave certain “areas of concern” for essential work you need to be PCR tested every 3 days. They call it surveillance testing. Covid fines are now $5000 and from Monday police are commencing operation stay at home targeting compliance.
I don’t recognize my country anymore and to think most Australians want the jab but it isn’t available. There is no need for this strong arm tactics.