JCVI expected to extend vaccine to 16 and 17 year olds.

[MareofBeasttown]

Good news. As some of us predicted, the JCVI has changed its mind.
This is behind a paywall, but I read the whole article on Twitter ( which I can't seem to paste here).

Anyway, the headline is self-explanatory.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/03/mass-vaccination-children-against-covid-planned/

I heard someone say not schools yesterday on R4 but didn’t catch name so can’t confirm it really

Older age groups do get benefit and it’s not so close in consideration

I thought the benefit to older people was found to be quite minimal in the last review due to the high uptake of vaccination in those groups anyway. Cases are dropping now too.

Cases are dropping now too

I wonder why?

"I heard someone say not schools yesterday on R4 but didn’t catch name so can’t confirm it really"

It will be very difficult to do some of the vulnerable 12-15 group other than in school so I hope it can be done for those children in school as are other vaccinations.

@Howshouldibehave

Cases are dropping now too

I wonder why?

Because over 93% of people over 16 have antibodies from either vaccination or previous infection? Clearly we don’t need To vaccinate 16/17 year olds to reduce cases. We haven’t even finished double vaccinating the adult population yet and cases are falling, even though a single dose isn’t as protective against delta.

I don’t agree it’s completely clear just yet. Given the massive impact this pandemic has had in every area from the economy to education I think a belt and braces approach is sensible, particularly with the real possibility of a hard winter on the horizon.

Cases are dropping now too

I wonder why?

Because over 93% of people over 16 have antibodies from either vaccination or previous infection? Clearly we don’t need To vaccinate 16/17 year olds to reduce cases. We haven’t even finished double vaccinating the adult population yet and cases are falling, even though a single dose isn’t as protective against delta.

Or because schools are out and schoolkids aren't doing their LFTs any more?

Because over 93% of people over 16 have antibodies from either vaccination or previous infection? Clearly we don’t need To vaccinate 16/17 year olds to reduce cases. We haven’t even finished double vaccinating the adult population yet and cases are falling, even though a single dose isn’t as protective against delta

Or it’s due to schools closing which I suspect is far more likely.

Cases in England started falling on July 15. The decrease was (and remains) driven by 20-24 age group.

These are not schoolchildren. Some of the young adults might be teachers but I doubt they account for a significant percentage of cases reported at the peak (4 days after the Euro final).

Going by the ONS survey, year 12- age 24 were coming up as the highest category around that time, closely followed by year 7-11 and then age 2 - year 6.

However there are more kids aged 5 - 16 than aged 17-24.

I think it is, being generous, at least a moot point that a lot or maybe most of the infections were in school kids (I defer to the people doing the maths on this thread).

Yes, I do not dispute that school kids inevitably get infected. I guess my point is they are not the driving force for increase and they are not the reason for the fall.

Schoolchildren have always been a lagging group. Cases always seem to first rise and fall in young adults. Every other age group (from school children to 60s+) follows the suit.

@TeenMinusTests

Cases are dropping now too

I wonder why?

Because over 93% of people over 16 have antibodies from either vaccination or previous infection? Clearly we don’t need To vaccinate 16/17 year olds to reduce cases. We haven’t even finished double vaccinating the adult population yet and cases are falling, even though a single dose isn’t as protective against delta.

Or because schools are out and schoolkids aren't doing their LFTs any more?

Well cases have fallen more than a reduction in testing would account for.

Re cases falling better to look to hospitalisation as this matters more and also reflects real falls rather than just people not testing.

It does appear to be dropping which is very good.

Deputy Chair of JCVI on The One Show now. Seemed very lovely and spoke sense.

*Or because schools are out and schoolkids aren't doing their LFTs any more?

Oh behave, cases haven't dropped from the 50k they were at to the 30k today because teens are no longer doing LFT, do you really believe that 20k cases a daywere came from teenagers testing in school?

Surely less testing in teens could have the reverse effect, ie positive asymptomatic teens spreading it the rest of the community thus increasing cases

Have absolutely no issue with this being offered, but with such a finely balanced risk/benefit it should be just that- an offer. With the level of coercion we have seen applied to the cohort above - 18-24s , with the PM even threatening to restrict their access to university lectures, I have absolutely no confidence that it will remain a genuine, unpressured choice for these youngsters. Will unvaccinated 16/17 year olds remain exempt under the new isolation rules for under 18s for example? Or, will they be required to isolate for 10 days as contacts if they don't take up the offer? These kind of consequences and implications need to be considered and discussed.

@wonderfullife123

Have absolutely no issue with this being offered, but with such a finely balanced risk/benefit it should be just that- an offer. With the level of coercion we have seen applied to the cohort above - 18-24s , with the PM even threatening to restrict their access to university lectures, I have absolutely no confidence that it will remain a genuine, unpressured choice for these youngsters. Will unvaccinated 16/17 year olds remain exempt under the new isolation rules for under 18s for example? Or, will they be required to isolate for 10 days as contacts if they don't take up the offer? These kind of consequences and implications need to be considered and discussed.

^this!

My 17 year old had her second Pfizer dose yesterday 4 weeks after her first. She is so pleased that she will be fully covered before she goes back to school. The positive rate amongst her class mates is going up exponentially

The positive rate amongst her class mates is going up exponentially

Good that they’ll all be immune before school starts back then. Less disruption for them :)

Good that they’ll all be immune before school starts back then

Who will all be immune before term starts?

Clearly we don’t need To vaccinate 16/17 year olds to reduce cases. We haven’t even finished double vaccinating the adult population yet and cases are falling, even though a single dose isn’t as protective against delta.

That's an incredibly strong, definitive statement to make without any evidence or appropriate training @bumbleymummy

The majority of epidemiologists are advising caution regarding transmission rates, it isn't possible to know currently whether vaccinate of younger age groups would be required to keep transmission at manageable levels

So tell me a disease that has similar low risk to children?
Rubella. Pretty much asymptomatic in children but given for the benefit of adult pregnant women.

vaccinating children will not be for their benefit but for the benefit of the wider society. Is it right that we make our children potentially sacrifice their health for the benefit of others?
They belong to wider society. Unless we can get herd immunity there will be no end to the testing, isolating, travel bans and all the other restrictions which impact children and their education as much as everyone else.

@FizziWater

So tell me a disease that has similar low risk to children? Rubella. Pretty much asymptomatic in children but given for the benefit of adult pregnant women.

vaccinating children will not be for their benefit but for the benefit of the wider society. Is it right that we make our children potentially sacrifice their health for the benefit of others?
They belong to wider society. Unless we can get herd immunity there will be no end to the testing, isolating, travel bans and all the other restrictions which impact children and their education as much as everyone else.

Yes

Posters who keep referencing the lower benefit/risk profile for children forget that they will be harmed by the impacts of uncontrolled coronavirus and substantial levels of illness and isolation required in the adult population.

It's isn't just the direct harms of coronavirus to children that we need to be worried about when considering the benefits to them of vaccination.

I agree. At 16-at any age in fact-if you had a chance to protect your parents and grandparents at very little risk to yourself, I can't speak for all but can for my DS and he wants to help keep us safer as well as himself.
Even at 16, he needs me for emotional support and life learning (*not to mention taxi of mum!)

I'm trying to persuade Dh to let me contact GP to ask re Ds1 and Ds2.