The UK may have got it right

[VioletRiemelt]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57911032

Australians back in lockdown, while our restrictions are gone. Our exit wave could be over by September.

Just checked and copied stats from Twitter guy I follow:-

So yes 66% all adults BUT look at full vaccine coverage in the highest most at risk of death groups ( better than I thought!) and I think age 50’s are in the 80% plus

Two doses:

80+: 92.4%
75-79: 100%
70-74: 96%
65-69: 94%
60-64: 97.5%
Nursing home residents: 93.3%

The best comparator is Japan not Singapore.

@LemonRoses well we aren’t really comparing Singapore to U.K. - just saying that they are following the ‘live with Covid’ approach the U.K. is doing but had to put the breaks on because they hadn’t vaccinated enough (and certainly not their most vulnerable elderly - 30% of whom are not vaccinated).

Thanks for the facts @sashagabadon

I haven’t been following Japan but will check them out. I’m desperately hoping they catch a break with the Olympics. I could cry for the organisers trying their utmost and the competitors. Really hoping it goes well.

@sashagabadon me too. They all have a public holiday tomorrow and Friday and seem so excited.

Singapore isn’t a good comparator for all sorts of reasons. My understanding from people living there is they took a far, far more rigorous track, trace and enforced isolation approach which saw reduced numbers.

Japan is a more densely crowded island nation with higher population. Their management has been exemplary and their results are tribute to this.

Jersey has done exceptionally well because they have planned for it since 2016 and had an epidemiologist in charge. Follow the science and data is clearly the answer - but not one our government likes.

@sashagabadon

I just think some are determined that the U.K. is doing things wrong when clearly we are doing a lot right. It really angers some people, hence the silly comments, lord knows why

20/10/20 start of the second wave 698 on ventilators - distancing, masks enforced, wfh advice in place, call for more restrictions ignored, lockdown light then full lockdown with education and healthcare disruption

20/07/21 start of third wave 618 on ventilators and this week all restrictions removed, nightclubs reopened,large events on...what will come next?

Timing is crucial in pandemic response and personally I get angry each time the Government act too slowly as the wore the wave, the worse the effects and time taken to get out of crisis point

Aside from vaccine take up (mostly due to the present danger of getting Covid in the UK) what is 'clear' about what 'we' are doing right?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/i-work-in-an-nhs-covid-ward-and-i-feel-so-angry

Don't think think this NHS consultant agrees that we're doing the right thing.

@MissJSmith someone might have said this already (I'm skimming) but that's total amount of lockdown. Not all in one go. Vic had an epic lockdown last year but the others have been shorter. In between they have been able to travel interstate and to NZ when the restrictions allowed.

Nobody has got it all right or all wrong, IMO.
It's a complex and fast evolving situation.
Time will tell what the bets approach is/was.
(FTR, I think the government has made some bad decisions, I am not defending them)

Total Covid deaths per million pop

Australia 36
UK 1923

And yes we do have a different demography and geography but I’m still not sure those numbers should confer some sort of ‘win’ over Australia. We’re all losers in this pandemic, unless you’re Matt Hancock’s sister...

@LemonadeFromLemons

Total Covid deaths per million pop

Australia 36
UK 1923

And yes we do have a different demography and geography but I’m still not sure those numbers should confer some sort of ‘win’ over Australia. We’re all losers in this pandemic, unless you’re Matt Hancock’s sister...

Exactly

@LemonadeFromLemons or Matt Hancocks old publican

[quote RumblyMumbly]@LemonadeFromLemons or Matt Hancocks old publican[/quote]
Or Baroness Harding and her husband.

@LemonRoses

Singapore isn’t a good comparator for all sorts of reasons. My understanding from people living there is they took a far, far more rigorous track, trace and enforced isolation approach which saw reduced numbers.

Japan is a more densely crowded island nation with higher population. Their management has been exemplary and their results are tribute to this.

Jersey has done exceptionally well because they have planned for it since 2016 and had an epidemiologist in charge. Follow the science and data is clearly the answer - but not one our government likes.

You've confused Guernsey with Jersey there. However, comparing the two is an interesting comparison. One went with following the science and data, the other went with an approach that is more similar to the UK.

Sadly I think the UK will prove NOT to have got it right. The rest of the world are looking on pretty aghast. This is a massive gamble. Holidays abroad should be an absolute no for this year.

Loving the positive spin from the OP there with 'our restrictions are over' - as though that wasn't a totally insane decision by the government.

And as for Our exit wave could be over by September really? you think as schools reopen agian that cases will start to go down?

Yeah, I really feel for Australia, they must look at us with envy

@LemonadeFromLemons

Total Covid deaths per million pop

Australia 36
UK 1923

And yes we do have a different demography and geography but I’m still not sure those numbers should confer some sort of ‘win’ over Australia. We’re all losers in this pandemic, unless you’re Matt Hancock’s sister...

You have to take JVT comment from the other day. Safest way to have protection is to be in a meadow in the middle of nowhere with no one around.

Australia is the proverbial meadow here. We need to realise that we likely had thousands of cases circulating before we even discovered our first 1 (you can't blame this on the government as testing wasn't a thing back then) We are a travel hub with millions coming and going each week.

Australia has much less people coming in and out so likely had hardly any cases to deal with when most of this took off so was much easier to control)

Yes our death rates etc are much worse but we are likely to come out of this much sooner than Australia will. Their vaccine programme is shocking and yes they couldn't have predicted about delta but poo pooing AZ may come back and bite them hard in the ass ( I really hope it doesnt)

@Twillow

Sadly I think the UK will prove NOT to have got it right. The rest of the world are looking on pretty aghast. This is a massive gamble. Holidays abroad should be an absolute no for this year.

They really aren't. No other country gives a hoot about what others are doing. They are likely looking at us hoping it works so they can adopt similar approaches when they reach our vaccination levels.

No other country gives a hoot about what others are doing. They are likely looking at us hoping it works so they can adopt similar approaches when they reach our vaccination levels.

Hmm, no.

NZ - covid advisor did the rounds on Monday, was politely negative but face was
USA - stuck us straight on the 'do not go to plague island' travel list on Monday
Israel - "school capsules to return, not to follow the dangerous path of Britain"
Ireland - we will not take risks with our children
etc etc

People are no doubt going to watch us, but our vax rates are not THAT much higher than many other countries but they do not want to risk the health of their young people, so we are the guinea pigs of rthe world - thanks for that Johnson!!

No other country gives a hoot about what others are doing. They are likely looking at us hoping it works so they can adopt similar approaches when they reach our vaccination levels.

www.cnbc.com/2021/07/16/englands-lifting-of-covid-lockdowns-a-danger-to-whole-world-experts.html

@Charliebradbury

I don't think anyone can actually know which countries have done "best" at this stage surely. So the UK handled it terribly with lockdowns then no lockdown then locldown again. However we have done vaccination well. My sister lives in Australia she is in her late 40s and clinically vunerable and isn't vaccinated yet, she refuses to get AZ as the media/govt over there is constantly talking about the side effects etc but she can't get a pfizer vaccine as they do not have enough. She said she doesn't know a single vaccinated person. So what is the exit strategy? They can not keep borders shut forever but opening up before vaccinations are at high levels will be a disaster but no one seems to want the vaccines. Its quite a conundrum.

Really? I'm also in Australia, late 40s, CEV, and have not long had my first Pfizer vaccine. Most of my peers have had theirs also, and my parents have as well (a long time ago actually). A mass vaccination centre recently opened near me and the booking system crashed. So your "no one seems to want the vaccines" is not my experience at all.

Meanwhile, a view from Asia (who are not watching so that they can copy the UK):

www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/uk-freedom-day-covid-19-restrictions-lifted-vaccination-rate-15248612

And in Singapore, 179 new covid cases - 179 - among the new infections that caused restrictions to return after a few days of loosening; UK daily cases upwards of 50,000 meanwhile.

www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid19-singapore-jul-21-jurong-port-ktv-marina-bay-sands-casino-15261182

www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/ong-ye-kung-covid-19-jurong-port-market-cluster-phase-2-ktv-15263610#cxrecs_s

I do not think they will be following the UK as a guide forward, either. Most countries are far more sensible in what restrictions they remove or relax.

You've confused Guernsey with Jersey there.

No, I’m meaning the Bailiwick of Jersey. One of highest testing and lowest infection rates in Europe. Testing put in place early at point of entry. Early border closure. Lots of very good practice sufficient healthcare infrastructure to cope.

I mean I'm just going on what my sister told me. She said her friends have been offered the AZ like her and won't take it but she can't get a pfizer appointment till at least September. That is what they told her at the vaccination centre. Slshe lives in Queens land so maybe it's different in different areas.