The UK may have got it right

[VioletRiemelt]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-57911032

Australians back in lockdown, while our restrictions are gone. Our exit wave could be over by September.

Those numbers were hard to read so am reposting.

I am returning to say I am hopeful following media reports that this 3rd wave is travelling in the right direction (down ) which would be amazing news not just for this country but globally.

However, we can't count our chickens yet. People on ventilator beds:
26-07-2021 820
25-07-2021 779
24-07-2021 755
23-07-2021 715
22-07-2021 699
15-07-2021 551
08-07-2021 417
01-07-2021 300
26-06-2021 256

So it obviously went up a lot in the last month, with an additional 121 needing ventilators in the last 5days. The pattern is still broadly comparable (for people on ventilation) to the second wave in October:
25-10-2020 828
01-10-2020 341
but considering the number of cases have been decreasing for the last week this may mean that it doesn't translate into an overwhelmed health service.

Next couple of weeks are crucial.

@Sunshinegirl82 The bit I struggle with is keeping a few restrictions in place that have little to no impact on the growth of cases but have a negative economic impact

Which restrictions do you refer to here?

Official cases still coming down

People needing ventilation are still tracking October numbers but hopefully vaccinations are slowing and reducing how many will need this:

30-10-2020 979
30-07-2021 889

By the end of October 2020 there were 11,788 people in hospital with Covid at the end of July 21 it was 5,943 less than half the number.

[quote RumblyMumbly]**@Sunshinegirl82* The bit I struggle with is keeping a few restrictions in place that have little to no impact on the growth of cases but have a negative economic impact*

Which restrictions do you refer to here?[/quote]
Restrictions possibly keeping out more variants?

I was referring to an argument that we should have kept restrictions as they were at stage 3 (when cases were rising with those restrictions in place in any event) and not proceed to stage 4. That, to me, was pointless.

In any event stage 4 has gone ahead and so far cases are not rising to the levels that were anticipated by some so that's really positive.

@Sunshinegirl82 surely you don't think wearing masks and distancing (the main tools in hands, face, space) are pointless?

Agree it's really positive that with nightclubs open etc the cases haven't spiked yet which is promising

[quote RumblyMumbly]@Sunshinegirl82 surely you don't think wearing masks and distancing (the main tools in hands, face, space) are pointless?

Agree it's really positive that with nightclubs open etc the cases haven't spiked yet which is promising[/quote]
I think they weren't sufficient to stop case numbers from rising exponentially (as they were doing when we were moving from step 3 to step 4). Together with a package of other measures they have impact but on their own the impact is low.

If we wanted to drive cases down we needed to increase restrictions. Keeping a few restrictions that achieved very little (but had significant financial impact) seems like the worst of both worlds to me.

Restrictions possibly keeping out more variants?

So if, say, people have to wear masks on trains and can't order a drink at the bar then hypothetical 'new variants' will be 'kept out'? But if they don't, they won't?

If there are any 'new variants' they're not going to be 'kept out', certainly not by half arsed measures whose main effect is to damage the economy. Not even the draconian policies followed in Australia have managed to do that.

Hospital admissions are going down now!

Number in hospital on 02/08/21 6,099 last time it was around that figure was end of March so towards tail-end of 2nd wave
on 2nd November it was 13,105 so less than half that.

02/08/21 895 patients with covid on ventilators so not jumping up as with previous waves and continuing to be a manageable number nationwide.

@Sunshinegirl82 from the World Health Organistion '"If COVID-19 is spreading in your community, stay safe by taking some simple precautions, such as physical distancing, wearing a mask, keeping rooms well ventilated, avoiding crowds, cleaning your hands, and coughing into a bent elbow or tissue. Check local advice where you live and work. Do it all!"
Personally I would rather everyone on public transport still had to wear masks (except those exempt) especially for the sake of CEV people or those who can't have vaccines and would remove that measure when Covid cases are lower in the community.

Most importantly we don't want to import a new variant in large amounts so it seeds in the community:
Wave 1) Feb 2020 half term ski-ing in Italy (educational disruption Mar-July)
Wave 2) Summer 2020 summer holidays wave 2 morphing into Alpha here (educational disruption Autumn term then homeschool Jan-March)
Wave 3) unrestricted travel from India March/April 2021(lots of educational disruption again 1in 7 children isolating at end of term)

SAGE have already identified international students in Autumn 21 and international summer hols this summer as potential means of transmission of new variants. At least we have testing capacity now it should be picked up earlier than previous waves and finally some testing at the border.

We can't maintain social distancing and masks forever, at some point they have to go. I can't personally see the point in retaining masks in a few settings when cases are growing exponentially regardless. It seems as though it's bordering on theatre to me.

In any event we didn't retain a mask mandate and after an expected increase cases are now falling, in spite of a reduction in mask use/general removal of the restrictions. The vaccines are doing their job. I think any reintroduction now is very unlikely unless there is a very significant wave over the winter so it's a moot point.

Yes at some point, but at the point with 50,000 new cases per day? When 1 in 75 people have Covid
www.channel4.com/news/one-in-75-people-in-england-has-covid
it seems sensible to have as much protection when sitting on a crammed bus or a train with sealed windows. Why do you think secondary school pupils were instructed to wear them in classes? So they could repeatedly reenact a scene from the Handsmaids Tail?!

Masks are not theatre, they are one of a combination of measures that help combat Covid spread. The less covid, the less disruption to to our daily lives.

@RumblyMumbly

Yes at some point, but at the point with 50,000 new cases per day? When 1 in 75 people have Covid www.channel4.com/news/one-in-75-people-in-england-has-covid it seems sensible to have as much protection when sitting on a crammed bus or a train with sealed windows. Why do you think secondary school pupils were instructed to wear them in classes? So they could repeatedly reenact a scene from the Handsmaids Tail?!

Masks are not theatre, they are one of a combination of measures that help combat Covid spread. The less covid, the less disruption to to our daily lives.

But it's done now isn't it? Decision made. And despite that decision, cases have fallen and hospitalisations appear to be following.

I take the view we had to take the leap at some point, I think the point where more than 90% of the population are estimated to have antibodies is a reasonable place to do so. I accept you would have made a different choice and if masks had been retained for a few more weeks fine, but they weren't. It is what it is.

If there's one thing Covid has taught us it is not to be complacent. Cases dropping and fewer people needing hospital care is fantastic news but we are far from home and dry!

Schools go back in a month, the country needs a very low prevalence in the community at that point. I really do hope vaccinations alone can allow us to lead normal lives and that children will be able to access onsite education and spend time in person with their friends from now on.

@RumblyMumbly

If there's one thing Covid has taught us it is not to be complacent. Cases dropping and fewer people needing hospital care is fantastic news but we are far from home and dry!

Schools go back in a month, the country needs a very low prevalence in the community at that point. I really do hope vaccinations alone can allow us to lead normal lives and that children will be able to access onsite education and spend time in person with their friends from now on.

If things change and restrictions become insufficient to keep hospitalisations at manageable levels then taking additional steps will need to be reconsidered.

However, as things stand there is no reason to reimpose restrictions, which is great. Hopefully the planned booster programme will help the vaccines to continue doing the heavy lifting for us and we won't need restrictions again. If we do, we do and we can cross that bridge when we reach it.

@Sunshinegirl82 I agree booster programme and imminent vaccines for children 16+ both sensible measures and should help keep Covid in check over winter(and hopefully some people who were undecided on vaccines will see the difference they make and take it up).

If we do, we do and we can cross that bridge when we reach it This is where early intervention is absolutely needed as each wave previously the Government acted too late, ending up with the NHS in crisis necessitating long lockdowns / pupils at home instead of at school. So they need to keep their eye firmly on the bridge before they reach it.

[quote RumblyMumbly]@Sunshinegirl82 I agree booster programme and imminent vaccines for children 16+ both sensible measures and should help keep Covid in check over winter(and hopefully some people who were undecided on vaccines will see the difference they make and take it up).

If we do, we do and we can cross that bridge when we reach it This is where early intervention is absolutely needed as each wave previously the Government acted too late, ending up with the NHS in crisis necessitating long lockdowns / pupils at home instead of at school. So they need to keep their eye firmly on the bridge before they reach it.[/quote]
I'm just going to enjoy the better times whilst they're here and deal with what comes when it comes. I make it a rule not to borrow trouble if it can possibly be avoided.

These threads were jam packed with people saying 19th of July would definitely be a disaster and there was no possible way it could be ok, but here we are. The numbers continue to be monitored, so we wait and see.

I think delta and Australia have taught us that we can’t keep new variants out even with stringent border controls. We might be ablee we to slow them down but that’s it

@Sunshinegirl82 I think it depends on personal circumstances how jumpy you get about things going 'tits up' again.

July 19th was an educated gamble - the Gov and the CMO / CSO said so much - and no-one globally knew what would happen beyond that but thankfully the immediate outcome appears better than anyone predicted. However, only being a couple of weeks in, and the good weather meaning more outdoor meet ups etc, and schools which aid community spread being largely on hols it's hard to foretell what will happen beyond.

I will be so relieved when the 16th arrives and isolation ends for contacts (unless ill yourselves). I am jumpy as have friends we were supposed to meet this week who couldn't meet as they have Covid in their household. One of my DC had a rubbish start to the school hols in isolation. We are due to go on our UK hols next week and the spectre of isolation hangs over it! I will properly enjoy things when I can book them and not worry about losing money or not being able to go! We got away last summer and it was a lovely break and felt very normal, am sure it will be the same this time as long as none of us get told to isolate before going.

I don't know your family circumstances but I am guessing you don't have children in exam years? The stakes are high for these children. I still have the psychological scars from homeschooling episodes over the last 2 academic years (while working!) for both my DCs. I know people have been through far worse than me during this time but I cannot shrug my shoulders at the prospect of any more educational disruption. The Gov said they would prioritise education, they need to act on their words.

I am really pleased to have this summer. Even accepting winter may be worse I agree with the "if not now (ie with high vaccinationation rate) when." The break in the link between high rates and high hospital rates has been great.

There has been so much sacrificed for the lockdowns and who knows whwerethe future lies. Now is a summer to enjoy imo.

Number of people on ventilators has slightly dropped too

04-08-2021 881

Patients in hospital with Covid has dropped too

All excellent news

Number of positive PCR cases has picked up again though
from 22,000 on 2nd and 3rd Aug to 30,215 on 5th

@GiantToadstool the phrase 'make hay while the sun shines' is pretty apt this summer!

Today’s cases are still slightly lower than last Thursday.