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Original poster

I don’t understand why infections are rising so sharply

208 replies

MissChanandlerBong22 · 14/07/2021 15:08

Just looking at the stats for my area. 60% of adults double jabbed. 80% have had one jab. Yet cases aren’t much lower than they were during the height of the pandemic in January.

I appreciate that hospital admissions and deaths are much lower of course. But I’m struggling to understand why cases are still so high. Is the virus spreading wildly among the 20% of unvaccinated adults? Or among the 20% of unvaccinated adults and the 20% of single jabbed adults? Or is it still circulating around everyone, but people who’ve been jabbed generally aren’t developing symptoms?

OP posts:
JassyRadlett · 14/07/2021 23:06

Maybe the Israeli suspicion is right. Efficacy wears off after a certain amount of time?

I think there are too many factors at play to be able to leap to that - the big shift is obviously delta becoming dominant in Israel, but also need to have data on behaviour shifts for vaccinated v unvaccinated, and it will be so interesting to see how the different vaccine schedules perform in the medium term.

It feels like, given the other data we have, that delta is probably playing a bigger role than time, but we obviously can’t know yet.

SonnetForSpring · 14/07/2021 23:09

Delta is highly transmissable. The vaccines are not enough. We need behavioural restrictions too.

Changechangychange · 14/07/2021 23:34

@Tealightsandd

I wonder why though in America almost all the deaths are in the unvaccinated. I thought it might be better protection from mRNA vaccines but perhaps it's something else. Maybe the Israeli suspicion is right. Efficacy wears off after a certain amount of time?
I suspect that in the US, there is a correlation between being vaccinated and being insured/being in a higher socioeconomic group. So unvaccinated patients would be more likely to die of all causes.

Those Israeli stats don’t look half bad to me, assuming we are talking about the same figures. If we had a case rate of 34/100,000 in this country, with no restrictions, we’d be laughing. And they are only 60% double vaccinated.

Wildewoodz · 14/07/2021 23:48

Only half of the population (including kids) have had both jabs. The gov’s figures are deceiving and for adults only.

Some double jabbed can still catch it and transmit it.

We have far less restrictions than January

Delta is more transmissible.

The last three outweigh the first.

ZZTopGuitarSolo · 14/07/2021 23:50

@JassyRadlett

Maybe the Israeli suspicion is right. Efficacy wears off after a certain amount of time?

I think there are too many factors at play to be able to leap to that - the big shift is obviously delta becoming dominant in Israel, but also need to have data on behaviour shifts for vaccinated v unvaccinated, and it will be so interesting to see how the different vaccine schedules perform in the medium term.

It feels like, given the other data we have, that delta is probably playing a bigger role than time, but we obviously can’t know yet.

I agree - there are so many factors to account for.

The UK is providing an interesting case study for other countries to watch - opening up with only half the population fully vaccinated, and with a very high and rising case rate, and a new very transmissible variant.

But other countries are also different so what happens in the UK won't necessarily happen there.

PrincessNutNuts · 14/07/2021 23:53

@SonnetForSpring

Delta is highly transmissable. The vaccines are not enough. We need behavioural restrictions too.
I can't tell you how much I admire and highly value that kind of to the point succinctness.

That's what I wish I'd posted.

I'm an only partially rehabilitated rambling recidivist. Blush

Tealightsandd · 15/07/2021 00:23

Thanks yes good points re America.

The UK is providing an interesting case study for other countries to watch - opening up with only half the population fully vaccinated, and with a very high and rising case rate, and a new very transmissible variant.

The Netherlands has already done that. With inevitable consequences. The government had to apologise to the public.

We don't need a case study. We know what will happen. As do all the experts around the world, including the WHO.

ZZTopGuitarSolo · 15/07/2021 00:30

In terms of what happens in the US you can't generalise as things are so different state by state.

The prediction is that cases will rise fairly slowly in the highly vaccinated states, but much more quickly in the less vaccinated states, but honestly I really don't know. As I said above, Mississippi has 7 kids in ICU, and 2 of them on vents.

My state is one with the a relatively high rate of vaccinations, but Delta is now resulting in rising infections. So maybe we'll go back to mask-wearing and social distancing. Our experience has been that some form of mitigation makes a difference, and that full lockdown was only needed briefly, so maybe we have less 'mitigation fatigue'? We'll see.

Our advantage is that school finished a while ago, so spread is not happening so much among under-12s. But school will be restarting in September...

Tealightsandd · 15/07/2021 00:34

Yes cases in America are rising in the less vaccinated states.

We also know that, so far, 99.5% of the deaths (in America) are in the unvaccinated. Vaccinated people are still catching it sometimes, but they're not getting seriously ill.

Tealightsandd · 15/07/2021 00:38

Sorry didn't read your post properly! You're in America. Serves me right for posting when I'm tired.

Awful about those kids in Mississippi.

Is the CDC currently recommending masks?

ZZTopGuitarSolo · 15/07/2021 00:39

They're rising in all states now I believe.

Last week my state was one of only two where cases were not rising, and we are now seeing our 7-day rate going up fairly quickly.

I am very heartened by the fact that deaths among the vaccinated are low, but I live in the oldest state in the US, and among other things we want infections to stay low so that people can continue to visit their families in care homes.

ZZTopGuitarSolo · 15/07/2021 00:41

@Tealightsandd

Sorry didn't read your post properly! You're in America. Serves me right for posting when I'm tired.

Awful about those kids in Mississippi.

Is the CDC currently recommending masks?

Cross-posted :-)

IIRC the latest is that the CDC is not recommending masks unless you are an individual who is at risk (eg immunocompromised or unvaccinated), or in a crowded indoor setting.

They have come up with some quite complex recommendations for schools, which will be a nightmare to implement.

Tealightsandd · 15/07/2021 00:42

I hope they can help those children pull through and make a good recovery.

Tealightsandd · 15/07/2021 00:45

Thanks @ZZTopGuitarSolo

It's good to hear from people in other parts of the world.

I hope your state is able to keep cases down.

borntobequiet · 15/07/2021 07:39

Schools, mostly.

SirVixofVixHall · 15/07/2021 08:38

The more infections, the more chance of vaccine resistant strains, so death and serious illness rates now are not the only issue, we also have to be aware that a mutation could take everything back to the beginning.
I think we need to proceed very cautiously.

lightand · 15/07/2021 19:52

In which case, surely the world is doomed, as apparently there have been 180 million cases so far...

There will always be mutations...

Canigooutyet · 15/07/2021 21:14

Mutations are one of the reasons why scientists keep developing vaccines and treatment and making tweaks, introduce boosters at times etc. People really don't think that influenza (yes I know it's not the flu) is the same original strain do they? They do realise that the flu vaccine has been tweaked when needed because of new strains?

Has their been any illness in history that eventually turned vaccine resistant? I am aware that illness themselves can develop into antibiotic resistant, didn't realise this could also be the case with vaccines.

Heyhohi · 15/07/2021 21:25

Taken from Sage meeting minutes no 9 "The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge."

www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021/sage-93-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021

3asAbird · 15/07/2021 21:40

Who decides, knows and stress tests what our NHS can cope with ie covid plus all other illness and emergency.
Do they look at bed capacity or staffing levels.
What if their modelling has got hospital admissions vastly wrong what then?

PrincessNutNuts · 17/07/2021 14:10

@3asAbird

Who decides, knows and stress tests what our NHS can cope with ie covid plus all other illness and emergency. Do they look at bed capacity or staffing levels. What if their modelling has got hospital admissions vastly wrong what then?
The NHS CEOs look at all of that,

And the modelling did under-estimate it by the look of things.

I don’t understand why infections are rising so sharply
eggman007 · 17/07/2021 14:22

I must say I did think that our vaccines would be better at preventing transmission than they appear to be.

One silver lining may be that, with such easy transmission, there will be little pressure for the virus to further mutate - why would it bother?

Of course, I've probably got this arse about tit, it was just a thought. One scenario may be that we'll just end up being stuck with the mighty Delta and have to rely on good vaccinations/treatments to render it as harmless as possible.

luckylavender · 17/07/2021 14:33

@Maggiesfarm - who said the effects of the new variant are milder?

Maggiesfarm · 17/07/2021 15:34

[quote luckylavender]@Maggiesfarm - who said the effects of the new variant are milder? [/quote]
I read it but we read different things every day. I'm prepared to be wrong about this but trying to be positive.