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Original poster

I don’t understand why infections are rising so sharply

208 replies

MissChanandlerBong22 · 14/07/2021 15:08

Just looking at the stats for my area. 60% of adults double jabbed. 80% have had one jab. Yet cases aren’t much lower than they were during the height of the pandemic in January.

I appreciate that hospital admissions and deaths are much lower of course. But I’m struggling to understand why cases are still so high. Is the virus spreading wildly among the 20% of unvaccinated adults? Or among the 20% of unvaccinated adults and the 20% of single jabbed adults? Or is it still circulating around everyone, but people who’ve been jabbed generally aren’t developing symptoms?

OP posts:
itsgettingwierd · 14/07/2021 19:14

@amicissimma

Have a look at the heatmap on the gov dashboard. For your LA it will show you which age groups are the majority testing positive.

In mine it's overwhelmingly the 15-29 age group, with the most (2-4x) in the 24-29 group. This group has the highest percentage unvaccinated and a stroll around town on a Friday or Saturday evening shows that they are mixing freely and very closely, with lots of singing and shouting close together.

People who've had the jab can still pick up Covid - they don't get a force field round them to keep it away. The idea is that their immune system, being primed, will deal with it before they get very ill. Some work quicker than others and hardly feel unwell at all, others a little slower and have a period of mild/moderate illness. And, of course, a minority are very unlucky and have no response to the vaccine. All these, if tested when the virus is in their nose/throat, even while the body is neutralising it, will produce a positive test.

But, in my area at least, these are the fewest. (Rate for older people is about 4% of what it is for the 24-29s.)

This.

Heat map for my area shows nearly all infections are 10-24 age group with most in schools aged 10-19.

Very few above 30 years old and that will be the population currently double jabbed.

The number of infections in the 0-9 age group is starting to increase.

Although the figures looks scary we are having 40 ish infections a day in a population of 120k and evidence is most of those are within school buildings and probably taken back home.

gogohm · 14/07/2021 19:18

The common cold was very serious when explorers contacted tribes for the first time (eg Amazon basin) because they had no immunity. Because we often get colds we build up a residual immunity so even though the virus mutates, it's similar enough that we don't get seriously ill unless there's underlying health factors.

Covid is the same, we had zero immunity in Europe, now many of us have some either from infection or vaccine, this means even though we will catch the virus it's more like a cold, a bit annoying but you get on with life. Not sure if it's the case as I've not had antibody testing, but despite having risk factors, my brush with covid in the first wave was barely noticeable, but I had suspected sars in the early 00's was living where there was an outbreak, wasn't too bad but a few days in bed. I think it's possible I had some underlying immunity

JassyRadlett · 14/07/2021 19:28

Taking the study that Israel has recently done (on more than a week’s worth of data) they found that Pfizer was still 64% effective in preventing infection against delta.

It will be interesting to keep comparing the U.K. data vs the Israel data to see the impact of a 21-day gap between doses with the 8-12 week gap in the UK. But our different schedule means we should look first at our own data.

Pixxie7 · 14/07/2021 19:48

No evidence for this but I am wondering if the efficacy of the vaccine is declining.

Tealightsandd · 14/07/2021 19:50

In America, where the majority of vaccines given are the mRNA ones (Pfizer and Moderna) 99.5% of the deaths are in the unvaccinated.

It might be that (when we get more supply) we need to give mRNA boosters to the people who've had Astrazeneca.

CookieClub · 14/07/2021 19:53

@ZZTopGuitarSolo

It's not quite harmless to children.

In Mississippi (population 3m) there are currently 7 children in the ICU with Covid, 2 on ventilators.

Yes horrible, but 7 out of 3 million is barely anything.

I know a young adult that took that life recently, another child that died of an asthma attack and another who was very close due to appendicitis.

Covid has a 98% survival rate. We need to live, we can't continue living boring restricted lifestyles, it's ridiculous

Tealightsandd · 14/07/2021 19:53

@Pixxie7

No evidence for this but I am wondering if the efficacy of the vaccine is declining.
I read something earlier about this possibility.

Israel has these concerns and I think they are starting to give 3rd boosters to their vulnerable. I don't know if they're basing it on any studies or whether it's a just in case decision.

CookieClub · 14/07/2021 19:57

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sleepwouldbenice · 14/07/2021 19:59

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Thewiseoneincognito · 14/07/2021 20:00

If the cases are this high in summer WITH restrictions and a fair amount of vaccinated adults imagine the mess we’ll be in by autumn.

If it gains the ability to evade the vaccines we will take a few very large steps backwards.

ZZTopGuitarSolo · 14/07/2021 20:01

Yes horrible, but 7 out of 3 million is barely anything.

I know a young adult that took that life recently, another child that died of an asthma attack and another who was very close due to appendicitis.

Ah so they're also 'barely anything'?

colouringindoors · 14/07/2021 20:05

Only around 50% of the total population have had 2 jabs.

Kids are indoors, in school with almost no mitigations.

Some research (from Israel) indicates 2 doses of AZ vaccine only 64% effective against Delta variant.

1200 scientists have now signed the letter requesting 19 July delay for a reason.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 14/07/2021 20:07

I thought Israel had only used Pfizer

Tealightsandd · 14/07/2021 20:09

I thought so too. Pfizer in Israel.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 14/07/2021 20:09

CookieClub
A lot of people don't realise the vaccine is in medical trials until the year of 2023...so everyone having it is literally agreeing to be a human guinea pig. There have been hundreds of thousands of side effects reported and over a thousands deaths. But yet people still want to take it, even though it clearly isn't making people as invincible as the government had them believe

And how many millions have died of Covid around the world? Is it 4 million…..? And you talk about a 1000 deaths…

CookieClub · 14/07/2021 20:10

@ZZTopGuitarSolo

Yes horrible, but 7 out of 3 million is barely anything.

I know a young adult that took that life recently, another child that died of an asthma attack and another who was very close due to appendicitis.

Ah so they're also 'barely anything'?

Clearly not, don't be hysterical. But unfortunately we are never going to banish covid from our atmosphere. Sadly there will always be people that die from it...like they continue to die from flu every winter despite a long-term vaccine against flu.

The frustrating thing is people thinking that we should live restricted lives/lose freedoms...for what??
There will never be zero covid deaths. If they're confident the vaccine works, then it needs to be allowed to be 'spread' and a degree of natural immunity needs to build up also.

The majority of people will not be unwell, or have longterm affects.

Scaremongering is an earner to some sectors...just saying....

CookieClub · 14/07/2021 20:13

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

*CookieClub A lot of people don't realise the vaccine is in medical trials until the year of 2023...so everyone having it is literally agreeing to be a human guinea pig. There have been hundreds of thousands of side effects reported and over a thousands deaths. But yet people still want to take it, even though it clearly isn't making people as invincible as the government had them believe*

And how many millions have died of Covid around the world? Is it 4 million…..? And you talk about a 1000 deaths…

And how many millions die from cancer, suicide, diabetes complications, heart disease etc....the issue is covid being seen as an instant death sentence - which it is not for 98% of people that contract it.

There are worse virus' out there than covid...some of them work in our government Grin

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 14/07/2021 20:14

Covid has a 98% survival rate. We need to live, we can't continue living boring restricted lifestyles, it's ridiculous

As long as you’re not in the 2%. Which is actually quite high.

Tealightsandd · 14/07/2021 20:14

@Thewiseoneincognito

If the cases are this high in summer WITH restrictions and a fair amount of vaccinated adults imagine the mess we’ll be in by autumn.

If it gains the ability to evade the vaccines we will take a few very large steps backwards.

We mustn't forget too the predicted hot weather coming up.

Hospitals are increasingly busy in summer dealing with heat related illnesses.

Heat stroke can cause heart attacks and strokes. As can Covid. I hate to think of the combination. Lethal for many. How horrendous too for staff and patients stuck in our overheated poorly ventilated hospitals.

Tealightsandd · 14/07/2021 20:19

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Covid has a 98% survival rate. We need to live, we can't continue living boring restricted lifestyles, it's ridiculous

As long as you’re not in the 2%. Which is actually quite high.

Ah but Covid death and disability happens only to Other People.

millions die from cancer, suicide, diabetes complications, heart disease etc

Indeed. Hence why we really could do without our hospitals being overrun with Covid patients, and HCP off sick with Covid, Long Covid, or PTSD. Else there's no beds or staff free to treat anyone for anything else.

CookieClub · 14/07/2021 20:19

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Covid has a 98% survival rate. We need to live, we can't continue living boring restricted lifestyles, it's ridiculous

As long as you’re not in the 2%. Which is actually quite high.

Thankfully I wasn't. Had covid, fully recovered, mild illness = natural antibodies.

I feel for anyone that has lost a loved one, or suffered, but given how the powers that be have behaved, I think they have a cheek expecting us to continue to stick to all their rules.

donquixotedelamancha · 14/07/2021 20:26

The common cold was very serious when explorers contacted tribes for the first time (eg Amazon basin) because they had no immunity. Because we often get colds we build up a residual immunity so even though the virus mutates, it's similar enough that we don't get seriously ill unless there's underlying health factors. Covid is the same, we had zero immunity in Europe, now many of us have some either from infection or vaccine, this means even though we will catch the virus it's more like a cold, a bit annoying but you get on with life.

There is a problem with this analogy- the common cold is a myth.

There are a hundredish viruses which cause cold/flu symptoms and it's true that some are covid-level dangerous in populations with no historic immunity to related viruses.

The problem is that they generate some level of lasting immunity but Coronaviruses don't. The jury is still out about whether Covid-19 would ever drop to the level of 'just another type of flu' without a vaccine or whether it would become the main killer of the vulnerable, even after a decade. Certainly, at the moment, there is nowhere near enough immunity from a one or two bouts of it to do what you say.

Fortunately the fact that it's just one virus means the vaccine will (hopefully) have it down to a tolerable level of deaths by winter 21/22. A tolerable level of deaths will, I think, still be very bad.

Tealightsandd · 14/07/2021 20:31

Had covid, fully recovered, mild illness = natural antibodies.

You can catch it more than once. Particularly new variants. And there's no guarantee it will be mild the second (or third) time.

Gwenhwyfar · 14/07/2021 20:31

"A couple of weeks ago one of my daughter’s housemates went to A&E following a nasty fall. He fractured his ankle and tested positive for Covid (no symptoms) and so will have been included in the stats. He’s now back home and feeling fine - apart from having his leg in plaster"

That was outpatient though presumably, not a 'hospitalisation'.