I don’t understand why infections are rising so sharply

[MissChanandlerBong22]

Just looking at the stats for my area. 60% of adults double jabbed. 80% have had one jab. Yet cases aren’t much lower than they were during the height of the pandemic in January.

I appreciate that hospital admissions and deaths are much lower of course. But I’m struggling to understand why cases are still so high. Is the virus spreading wildly among the 20% of unvaccinated adults? Or among the 20% of unvaccinated adults and the 20% of single jabbed adults? Or is it still circulating around everyone, but people who’ve been jabbed generally aren’t developing symptoms?

Having the vaccine doesn't totally prevent you catching it.

I'm double
Jabbed. Caught it about 10 days after second jab...

Because not everyone is protected and at the same time restrictions are almost non-existent already.
Pubs open, huge mass events, people who are fed up, etc.

The Delta variant is much more transmissible than previous variants we have known and hated. It is also better at overcoming a single vaccination (not so much two). In January we were in lockdown, so there was much less mixing going on than now.

More transmissible + more mixing = rising cases, even with a majority of people double jabbed.

Children? It's spreading around schools here.

Viruses gon' virus

It really doesn't matter how many recorded infections there are, as long as deaths fall.

Some people will never be immune, some can't be vaccinated, loads of children will catch it and develop immunity. That's the best way.

The common cold infects millions with no drama. A few die. People will always catch viruses, generally with no harm. We can't actually do much to help those who are harmed by even the common cold.

We're going that way with Covid. It's becoming harmless.

When you add together the 40% of adults who aren't fully vaccinated and all of the unvaccinated children, that's a significant chunk of the population who aren't well protected. Especially as one jab doesn't protect well against the delta variant, and even some of the double jabbed adults will not have had the two weeks post jab to build up their immunity. Add that to the fact that it is possible, though less likely, to catch and transmit the virus even after having been double jabbed, and the rates really aren't that surprising.

The ones we really need to watch are the hospitalisations and deaths. Deaths are still very low, which is great, but I'm concerned about the hospitalisations. The NHS could still quite easily get overwhelmed if we are not careful.

It's becoming harmless.

The dozens of scientists who signed an open letter voicing deep concern this week would not agree.

there is a scary graph on here regarding what happened in Netherlands. They started off at a lower level than we are at stage 4.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-can-the-uk-avoid-reimposing-coronavirus-restrictions-after-theyre-lifted-12355210

Really what do the Gov think is going to happen? I almost cannot bear to watch

@chamberofhorrors

there is a scary graph on here regarding what happened in Netherlands. They started off at a lower level than we are at stage 4.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-can-the-uk-avoid-reimposing-coronavirus-restrictions-after-theyre-lifted-12355210

Really what do the Gov think is going to happen? I almost cannot bear to watch

So what do you suggest?

With 500+ patients being admitted to hospital every day, and rising, I don't think we can say that it's harmless yet. Much less harmful than it was, for sure.

There are 33,000 children in the UK suffering from Long Covid,

I read a few weeks back that one expert believed that almost all of us would catch the delta variant but for the vast majority of us it will do no harm. I guess, as pp said, like the common cold.

I just see the vaccine as giving people a better chance of only being mildly affected. Not as something that protects you from CV (esp delta variant) altogether.

Had my first jab and have managed to catch it. I’m suffering quite badly with it too. I think the government is nuts to go opening everything up…but then after all of the Euro celebrations and crowds of the past few weeks, a lot of the damage is done so I guess we might as well go all out.

I definitely agree that schools are a Covid pit!

So what do you suggest?

Restrictions

@chamberofhorrors

So what do you suggest?

Restrictions

For how much longer? People have given up 18 months of their lives for something that 99% of people won't suffer from. No more!

Children are protected by their immune systems and reality. They are not at all at risk.

I didn't say they were. The OP was asking why case rates were so high despite a majority of adults being vaccinated, and I noted that unvaccinated children account for some of that spread.

Children are at very low risk from covid overall, but some vulnerable children will sadly die. And many more might be affected with long covid. I don't think we can afford to be complacent about this.

The UK's vaccine roll out was aged based. Therefore there is a significant proportion of younger people who are not yet fully vaccinated. Younger people tend to socialize with other younger people. This means that there is a large pool of susceptible people hanging out together which means that the virus can transmit easily amongst that group.

The result is a large number of infections, primarily in the younger populations, as seen in the statistics.

Breakthrough infections (ie those who are post two weeks double jabbed) do happen, and will become more common as there is a greater number of cases circulating. However, the vast majority of these will be mild or asymptomatic.

Have a look at the heatmap on the gov dashboard. For your LA it will show you which age groups are the majority testing positive.

In mine it's overwhelmingly the 15-29 age group, with the most (2-4x) in the 24-29 group. This group has the highest percentage unvaccinated and a stroll around town on a Friday or Saturday evening shows that they are mixing freely and very closely, with lots of singing and shouting close together.

People who've had the jab can still pick up Covid - they don't get a force field round them to keep it away. The idea is that their immune system, being primed, will deal with it before they get very ill. Some work quicker than others and hardly feel unwell at all, others a little slower and have a period of mild/moderate illness. And, of course, a minority are very unlucky and have no response to the vaccine. All these, if tested when the virus is in their nose/throat, even while the body is neutralising it, will produce a positive test.

But, in my area at least, these are the fewest. (Rate for older people is about 4% of what it is for the 24-29s.)

They’re going up because people aren’t social distancing indoor and outdoor mixing is up not everyone is protected.
Large parts of society seem to think this is over
other people think the rules don’t apply to them
The vaccination program has lured some people into a false sense of security despite the fact that it does not stop transmission

It’s all pretty obvious and predictable unfortunately

Good news so far hospitalisations and deaths remain low hopefully that will continue

@chamberofhorrors

There are 33,000 children in the UK suffering from Long Covid,

What's the source for that please?

Children, young people and vaccinated can still get a positive

Which is why it’s good link with hospitalisation is weakened

@AlexaShutUp

With 500+ patients being admitted to hospital every day, and rising, I don't think we can say that it's harmless yet. Much less harmful than it was, for sure.

Don’t forget - many of those people are not being admitted with Covid. They are being with something else then testing positive once in there.

A couple of weeks ago one of my daughter’s housemates went to A&E following a nasty fall. He fractured his ankle and tested positive for Covid (no symptoms) and so will have been included in the stats. He’s now back home and feeling fine - apart from having his leg in plaster

Lots of indoor and outdoor mixing, lack of social distancing.

I went on a tram yesterday that was jam-packed with teenagers (going to school) standing in every possible space. By my reckoning 25% weren’t wearing masks.