I don’t understand why infections are rising so sharply

[MissChanandlerBong22]

Just looking at the stats for my area. 60% of adults double jabbed. 80% have had one jab. Yet cases aren’t much lower than they were during the height of the pandemic in January.

I appreciate that hospital admissions and deaths are much lower of course. But I’m struggling to understand why cases are still so high. Is the virus spreading wildly among the 20% of unvaccinated adults? Or among the 20% of unvaccinated adults and the 20% of single jabbed adults? Or is it still circulating around everyone, but people who’ve been jabbed generally aren’t developing symptoms?

Does make me question whether being double jabbed does cut down much on transmissions?

People are mixing more. Delta is more transmissible.

@lightand

Does make me question whether being double jabbed does cut down much on transmissions?

It probably cuts the chances of catching it and passing it on by about 75% but a lot of that could be negated by people taking more risks because they think they're completely immune.

Short answer is that having the vaccine doesn’t stop you catching the virus. Just means you’ll suffer less severely. The more we open up, the more people will catch it. Many won’t even know they have it.

@MissChanandlerBong22

It's really interesting , isn't it. 60% sounds a lot. If you work it through though - if you had 200,000 adults in the population, that means 120,000 (60%) are double jabbed. If vaccines are around 90% effective 108,000 of those will develop immunity, leaving 10% - 12,000 not protected. 40,000 people have had one jab, so about 50% of them, 20,000 are not protected. And then the remaining unvaccinated 20% or 40,000 adults are also not protected. That adds up to 72,000 adults, that's almost exactly one third of the adult population not protected. Then add your under 18s and, depending on how the population in your area is made up, maybe getting on for half your population has no protection.

Yes! That was what surprised me so much, because 60% sounds so high - and a further 20% having one jab sounds even higher.

But as you say, when you work it through - add the under-18s in, take account of the unvaccinated adults, take account of the fact that no vaccine is 100% effective - then you realise actually 60% of the adult population isn’t such a huge number after all.

The way it's being commented on abroad is 'Wow, England is reopening completely despite the fact that 50% are not fully vaccinated, and cases are dramatically rising."

Whereas when I see it talked about on places like MN everyone's focused on the fact that 80% of over-18s have had at least one vaccination, as if that's all it takes to keep rates down and you don't need to worry about the fact that schools are full of non-vaccinated students who are mixing without any social distancing or much masking.

@MissChanandlerBong22

Just looking at the stats for my area. 60% of adults double jabbed. 80% have had one jab. Yet cases aren’t much lower than they were during the height of the pandemic in January.

I appreciate that hospital admissions and deaths are much lower of course. But I’m struggling to understand why cases are still so high. Is the virus spreading wildly among the 20% of unvaccinated adults? Or among the 20% of unvaccinated adults and the 20% of single jabbed adults? Or is it still circulating around everyone, but people who’ve been jabbed generally aren’t developing symptoms?

If you ignore the

"Woooo! Bigger numbers sound better"

Government spin designed to market removing covid measures to us

And think of it in real terms:

52.4% of the U.K. population double vaccinated is clearly not enough to stop Delta all by itself.

And the more cases the government allows, the higher the R number and the further away we get from crossing the herd immunity threshold so by allowing higher cases than ever before soon we're making the vaccine coverage we do have less effective

Which is why we should be supporting our vaccination programme with all the other measures we know help reduce spread and keep cases low - -such as working from home, masks, ventilation in schools etc.

'
We'll all have our own reasoning why we want different restrictions - usually we want restrictions on things that affect others, not us!'

Absolutely. All of the people I knew IRL who were calling for schools to be closed last year were key workers who were safe in the knowledge that their children would still be benefiting from a full week at school

All I know from word of mouth is its suddenly rife in schools after masks stopped and all the mixing for those not fully jabbed e.g. with the football. Heaps of young people still only had one jab at most, which obviously isn't that effective.

And yet apparently we should get rid of masks 🤷‍♀️ such fools

Is there some sort of trolling or people deliberately spreading fake news on this thread - there is dangerous misinformation on here

@lughnasadh

It really doesn't matter how many recorded infections there are, as long as deaths fall.

Some people will never be immune, some can't be vaccinated, loads of children will catch it and develop immunity. That's the best way.

The common cold infects millions with no drama. A few die. People will always catch viruses, generally with no harm. We can't actually do much to help those who are harmed by even the common cold.

We're going that way with Covid. It's becoming harmless.

"It's becoming harmless" as I wonder, nearly a year and a half after I first caught it, whether I will ever be off heavy medication.

"It's becoming harmless" as my whatsapp is currently pinging from people swapping funeral preparations for another friend who has died.

Yeah, sure, whatever.

We currently have two staff members isolating following lateral flow testing. One feels lethargic, the other has zero symptoms. We didn’t have access to LFTs in January (at my work place, I’m sure some did). So there’s 2 infections that would never have been picked up a fee months ago. I’m not saying all infections are this mild, but I sure they won’t be the only ones who wouldn’t even know they had it without the automatic testing.

I work in a secondary school. Loads of kids off at the moment either with covid or isolating as they've been in the same class. We've also recently had two members of staff catch it despite being double jabbed.

It's not quite harmless to children.

In Mississippi (population 3m) there are currently 7 children in the ICU with Covid, 2 on ventilators.

@lughnasadh

It really doesn't matter how many recorded infections there are, as long as deaths fall.

Some people will never be immune, some can't be vaccinated, loads of children will catch it and develop immunity. That's the best way.

The common cold infects millions with no drama. A few die. People will always catch viruses, generally with no harm. We can't actually do much to help those who are harmed by even the common cold.

We're going that way with Covid. It's becoming harmless.

“it’s becoming harmless”. Tell that to anyone with long Covid..

@lughnasadh

It really doesn't matter how many recorded infections there are, as long as deaths fall.

Some people will never be immune, some can't be vaccinated, loads of children will catch it and develop immunity. That's the best way.

The common cold infects millions with no drama. A few die. People will always catch viruses, generally with no harm. We can't actually do much to help those who are harmed by even the common cold.

We're going that way with Covid. It's becoming harmless.

Apart from the ones that get long covid, or the one in 7000 who end up in icu...

Funny how nobody said the same about polio or mumps. Fine if you survive, just a little bit of lifelong disability / infertility that you'll have to live with...

Does make me question whether being double jabbed does cut down much on transmissions?

Why?

It’s clear from the data that this wave is demographically really different from the previous waves.

There is also good data that vaccines prevent the majority of infections (and if not infected, there’s nothing to spread) and that even in the minority who are infected, the secondary transmission rate is significantly reduced even for high risk contacts.

I'm sure deaths will be much lower this time - that's good news.

Hopefully we don't get another 'UK Variant' spread around the world as a result of the infections being allowed to spread unchecked. And if we do, hopefully the vaccines still work against it.

It's a little nerve-wracking watching from outside the UK.

@ParadiseLaundry

' We'll all have our own reasoning why we want different restrictions - usually we want restrictions on things that affect others, not us!'

Absolutely. All of the people I knew IRL who were calling for schools to be closed last year were key workers who were safe in the knowledge that their children would still be benefiting from a full week at school

Same with people who have secure jobs that aren't affected by covid calling for pubs and restaurants to remain closed, and people who have lovely homes with dedicated office space not understanding why working from home doesn't work for everyone.

Ultimately everyone is selfish and wants others to restrict their lives to keep them feeling comfortable and safe.

Round here it's the schools. In November and January - they were closing when they had cases. 18 cases at daughters school and they are being told to stay open. Total change in response.

• If you ignore the

"Woooo! Bigger numbers sound better"

Government spin designed to market removing covid measures to us

And think of it in real terms:

52.4% of the U.K. population double vaccinated is clearly not enough to stop Delta all by itself.

Yes. I think what I’m taking away from this thread is that the main answer to my question is that I failed to understand the headline vaccination numbers. 60% of adults double jabbed doesn’t equal 60% of the population double jabbed. Only around 52% of the population are fully vaccinated and restrictions are being released. When you put it like that, rising infections don’t seem remotely surprising!

Delta is more transmissible and being vaccinated doesn’t mean you’re 100% not going to get it or spread it.

It's mostly school kids and young adults. At one point 1 in 5 kids at the high school were positive along with most the staff under 30 and the school was closed for 2 weeks

Work in a secondary school. All we've done the last few weeks is send students home to isolate. Not bubbles, close contacts.

Lots testing positive on lateral flows and then PCR's. Main symptom is a sore throat.

Some staff are off and are very very poorly despite being double jabbed.

Having worked all through this last year as well, this is by far the worst it has been, and it's scary.

I am also off isolating now as came into contact with 4 positive students yesterday.

Some parents refuse to accept that a sore throat is worth testing. They don't even want to test with the 3 main symptoms. They get pissy with isolating. They still don't know the rules either.

What a shower of shit.

If I was to make a guess as to how this happened, might have started around the time masks were ditched in schools.

And come Monday, well, I think we can imagine how that will play out...

Delta is more transmissible and being vaccinated doesn’t mean you’re 100% not going to get it or spread it.

That I understand. I was just surprised that it hasn’t had a more appreciable effect on transmission rates (in addition to death and hospitalisation rates) though.

@JassyRadlett

Does make me question whether being double jabbed does cut down much on transmissions?

Why?

It’s clear from the data that this wave is demographically really different from the previous waves.

There is also good data that vaccines prevent the majority of infections (and if not infected, there’s nothing to spread) and that even in the minority who are infected, the secondary transmission rate is significantly reduced even for high risk contacts.

Israeli data is not so reassuring.