covid cases rising

[essexgirl58]

I just read online that cases are rising and the Government are going to review the situation on Monday to make a decision as to what to do on the 19th July and if despite this if they still continue to relax things finally on the 19th July then I will have lost all respect for this UK Governemtnt and Boris should be sacked immediately, together with the Health Minister

The final step of unlocking is expected to go ahead as planned on 19 July in England. It will be confirmed on 12 July after a review of data.

I'm just keeping everything crossed that England lose tomorrow so everyone slumps off to bed at 10pm instead of going on the lash infecting each other.

If we go for a complete free for all on 19 July it eventually won't be able to cope and so we will have another lockdown in the winter

We won't if hospital numbers stay manageable. We cannot keep these restrictions until winter. The economy is tanking. Other things matter - if there's no money being made - who will pay for the NHS?
We cannot relax in winter as it would be the worst time to do it. Better to do it now while hospitalisation are low and people are mainly vaccinated. Numbers won't just keep on rising and rising, it will peak and hopefully drop before winter (look at India). Don't forget school holiday will help mitigate this somewhat (kids not mixing).

Now is the time to do it. It is somewhat of an experiment yes, but hopefully one that will work - in the sense that there has to be some balance now between other things as well as covid deaths.

Can someone explain to me how showing a graph from last autumn and comparing it to one for this summer, is showing the link is broken.

I don't understand the 'let's have the peak now'. Well, I get its better to have a peak now, rather than in winter. But that's doesn't mean there won't be a winter peak.

I don't believe we will really know how effective the vaccine programme has been until we get through winter. Winter is always the NHS most difficult time, pre covid.

But to be honest, I have expected so.e back tracking once to football finished. Its really clear there could be more restrictions. All the talk of it being 'personal' responsibility.

They are just setting up so they can blame the public if its gets out of hand again.

@NannyAndJohn

I'm just keeping everything crossed that England lose tomorrow so everyone slumps off to bed at 10pm instead of going on the lash infecting each other.

If England lose tomorrow then you really think people won’t go on the lash. Probably more reason to. Nobody is going to bed at 10pm regardless of result.

@Sparklingbrook you are right. There will be a huge amount spent this weekend. Either people getting food and drink in or people going out to watch it.

People will drink in celebration or to commiserate.

@leafygarden42

Wowzers - all the smartasses who know best on this thread as well. But if you say 'Good morning' it's okay??

Some people will be anxious about this but the tide is turning from everyone having to pander to that to them having to learn to cope with their anxiety.

I hope that the government panders to my anxiety. I work in a hospital and yes, we're seeing A LOT of covid cases and it is PUTTING PRESSURE ON BEDS. I've put that in capital letters as some people STILL believe that this is not true and we just need to steam ahead and ignore the plain facts.

@TheReluctantPhoenix is 100% right. You may not like facts, but it is what it is. And yes, there is a direct correlation between hospital admissions and deaths. No klaxons needed.

I feel that this post needs to be repeated for truth.

One of the most disconcerting aspects of the last nearly 18 months is the ability of so many to simply refuse to accept facts - because they don't fit their preferred narrative, which of necessity involves denial. And around and around it goes.

[quote Romanoff]@Sparklingbrook you are right. There will be a huge amount spent this weekend. Either people getting food and drink in or people going out to watch it.

People will drink in celebration or to commiserate.[/quote]
They really will. They are already out at the pub.They booked Monday off work especially. Their team lose? Get those beers in! No ‘slumping’ off home.

@NannyAndJohn

I'm just keeping everything crossed that England lose tomorrow so everyone slumps off to bed at 10pm instead of going on the lash infecting each other.

That's mean. Come on we've got to have something go right to get us through this nightmare!

"09:03Doublestar

If we go for a complete free for all on 19 July it eventually won't be able to cope and so we will have another lockdown in the winter

We won't if hospital numbers stay manageable. We cannot keep these restrictions until winter. The economy is tanking. Other things matter - if there's no money being made - who will pay for the NHS?"

The government has said all along that protecting the NHS is of primary importance. As regards paying for it, we are in a similar situation to a war, it has to be paid for afterwards via government bonds etc. A free for all in the summer will do nowhere near enough to rescue the evonomy. The government are bowing to the pressure of their financiers - big business. Yes, we do need to open the economy and let businesses take advantage of summer trade, but if we remove all mitigations they will end up having to lock down all the sooner. For instance, masks in shops, supermarkets and on public transport give people more confidence in using them, so probably increase rather than reduce trade, so it's pointless removing this mitigation.

I know quite a few people with cancer though, and illnesses (including mental) that aren't being treated bc of the backlog

Whose treatment will be futher delayed beecause of high case numbers.

@Sparklingbrook I tried to book Monday off. Unfortunately, I have to leave the house at 3.30am as I need to travel for a meeting.

I am gutted, I am not even English, a football fan or a big drinker. But did plan on watching and having a late night anyway with a couple of drinks.

Sunday may even save the economy single handedly

I'm just keeping everything crossed that England lose tomorrow so everyone slumps off to bed at 10pm instead of going on the lash infecting each other.

I'm not sure this analogy works - most people will already be at the pub at 10pm if they have the inclination to get pissed (I'm making no judgement here - unlike most of MN I'm quite enjoying the football but prefer to watch at home) A percentage will go home straight after the game, some will carry on drinking regardless of the result.
What I dont imagine is people watching at home until 10pm and then deciding to go to the pub. (I wouldnt be surprised if pubs limited entry after a certain time anyway) The fact weve got to the final means more people will be out mixing with others. In that respect the result is largely irrelevant.

People will have been at the pub a long time before the match even starts too.
I am expecting the usual tabloid pics of people not socially distancing or wearing masks when they should do so we can be all outraged over football a bit more.

What we know (I think): cases are going up because Delta is more transmissible I.e. one case infects more on average than Alpha variant. Full course of vaccines prevent about 9 in 10 people catching it (approx - based on the different studies etc of effectiveness of vaccines reported in the press) so of the 35 million vaccinated 3.5 million can still catch it. Plus about half of the 45 million or so partly vaccinated, all of the 7 million (?) unvaccinated and 14 million children and young people. This adds up to more than estimated UK pop of 67 million but I guess the vax ones are based on GP registrations and the others ONS so okay these numbers are a bit ropey but just to give us an idea they'll do. So say about 45 million can still be infected, which would seem to be at least half of the population.
This level of coverage doesn't appear to have stopped cases increasing and given the now high number of active cases that are out there vaccination doesn't look like it's going to stop cases increasing in the short term.
Widely reported in press that vaccination prevents serious illness and hospital admissions and deaths appear to be remaining relatively low compared to previous curves and other countries, but this doesn't seem to me to be well quantified and I don't think we know, at least from anything in the public domain, what the likely impact of extremely high case rates will be on hospital admissions and deaths.
Impact of isolation measures likely to affect many. When daily case number of 50-60k ONS reported 1 in 45 had covid, so could this also double when number of daily cases reaches 100k? Some would be asymptomatic and not identified but if say 1 in 30 knew they had covid how many would be isolating? If isolation measures are scaled back what would the impact be on infections?
Sorry for the long post. My point is it's complicated and there's a lot we don't know. I think it is a bit of an experiment on behalf of govt. There's a reasonable chance it will pay off, looking at admissions/deaths, but no one could say this was playing it safe. The masks thing seems bonkers and unjustifiable to me.

@NannyAndJohn

I'm just keeping everything crossed that England lose tomorrow so everyone slumps off to bed at 10pm instead of going on the lash infecting each other.

Dude! I mean I’m all for being aware of the dangers but too far!

(Plus the snotty, crying messes won’t be much good for transmission either)

It is an experiment I agree. Where we will fall though is not including children in our vaccination program. We may see a peak in August and then cases start falling but there will be no time at all before schools reopen and it starts up again. But we'll still be at a relatively high starting point again with cases.

Some people will be anxious about this but the tide is turning from everyone having to pander to that to them having to learn to cope with their anxiety

Which tide? The majority support keeping restrictions for longer.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow
Where is that poll from? I'm amazed at the percentage of people wanting permanent restrictions ...10pm curfews and no nightclubs, permanently? ....as a short person, I kind of like the idea of social distancing at concerts or sports venues and the journey home would be more pleasant if not crammed onto a trainer tube like a sardine....but i can't imagine promoters thinking its s good idea, unless they double the ticket prices!

Trainer tube = train or tube!!

Ipsos Mori for The Economist yesterday or the day before.

Those shouting for lockdown can fuck the fuck off.
Time to get on with life. Cant keep putting everything on hold. Fucking ridiculous. Time to accept some people will die. Covid is here to stay.

I’ve read somewhere that Boris has been ‘spooked’ by it.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’ve read somewhere that Boris has been ‘spooked’ by it.

You’d hope most people would be spooked by that. Who ARE the 19% of people who want a 10pm curfew forever?

People who read ‘Thr Economist?’

I don’t know!

No, it was a phone poll! I would hope for better of Economist readers (maybe wrongly, I dunno)