Let's face it, they're letting it rip.

[ZednotZee]

Aren't they?

The vaccines aren't seemingly preventing transmission.

We are opening up on the 19th.

This is being done presumably as the public appetite for further lockdowns will be nil come October/November so best to get it over with now and have heard immunity come the autumn.

They won't say it but its becoming very clear that the immunocompromised need to continue to shield til the rest of us have contracted and got over the infection.

Epidemiologist Deepti Gurdasani argues this reasoning is flawed.

There are always conflicting opinions.

Implicit in Whitty’s reasoning is that opening up fully is to some degree a gamble, whenever we do it. Anyone adult not vaxxed right now is and always was low risk for serious outcomes. Better to trial it now, when the hospital system isn’t under the same pressure as it will be in the autumn.

I agree that some people will always be finding an excuse to wait ‘just a few more months’. At some stage we have to just do it.

@colouringindoors

Well allow me to reassure you that as things stand none of them are gravely ill.
My direct superior is in her fifties, BMI of 35, suffers from chronic obstructive sleep apnea and is apparently sailing through covid.
So on an individual level the vaccines do their job.

this is seriously scary

Not if they don’t require hospitalisation it isn’t

@Wakeupin2022

Europe doesn’t currently have 28,000 cases daily. They are running in the hundreds. They are opening up but keeping mandatory masking across many areas. Also their vaccination programme is fast catching up with U.K. Germany currently vaccinating approx 800,000 a day, U.K., 250,000.

Germany today has downgraded the UK meaning that Brits can travel to there again. (With some restrictions of course).

Delta is on the increase. Spain and Portugal have high numbers of daily cases and are not that far behind the UK re Delta spread. Greece had a massive rise in cases today.

They can't yet afford for it to spread as much as their vaccination rates are lower, but it won't be long now.

But it is spreading in Europe and the restrictions they have in place will do little to stop it.

Europe is behind us with Delta. Thats the thing driving the increase in the UK. Current restriction levels in much of the EU will be insufficient to prevent a significant uptick in cases as Delta spreads. So they are also going to face hard choices over whether to lockdown again or to plough through.

The fact that Germany has today downgraded travel restrictions from the UK - moving us and other countries including India - from a red list of countries with a variant of concern to a lesser catagory says a lot about where things are going with Delta. The policy from tomorrow is that double vaccinated Brits don't have to quarantine on entry.

The German government is well aware that they can't stop Delta. And they will be well aware of what that means for case numbers and how they too have little option but to fall back on to relying on the effectiveness of vaccines in the very near future. Like the UK.

Its a question of when cases will skyrocket rather than saying case numbers are still very low. Ours were very low just a few weeks ago.

I do actually think that Whitty was very honest about this at the press conference (see quote above) btw.

I know the thread has moved on a bit but thank you for the analysis @RedToothBrush. Interesting to get a pragmatic perspective on why they have decided to go now rather than the emotive language that so many use here.

"Letting it rip" is a bit of an exaggeration when the majority of people are vaccinated..

My understanding is no vaccine has been approved for any child under 12, we last saw the GOSH team on Monday, but I will ask again when we see them next week.

They haven’t been approved, but your consultant has the option of going off license if they feel the need is sufficiently great.

@gamerchick

Masks and SD in place

No indoor mixing.

No holidays

So what's stopping you doing all that? Crack on.

You do realise plenty of us are doing exactly this? Bit pointless if we end up with new variants due to high transmission rates.

Nothing more can be done.

Really? There are no options between full lockdown and the removal of all restrictions, masks and social distancing?

There’s absolutely no reason why masks should be done away with. There’s no reason why social distancing shouldn’t be maintained wherever possible. What is the motivation for doing away with it all at once?

People ask how long we should wait then - err, until the vaccination programme is complete, obviously! Why not?

The Tories are capitulating to voter pressure and their intentions are quite clear.

@mrsanflowerpot just wanted to say I’m really sorry you’re in this situation with your child. I know we can’t lockdown forever and I wouldn’t support that but it’s just a really horrible situation that we’re in this situation, that this happened and there are children that needed protecting. I hope you’re able to get a vaccine soon.

Zotter I don't disagree. And it is an incredible gamble.

I despise everything this govt stands for, but for some peculiar reason many people decided that a compulsive liar was best person to run the country.

It is scary, but of all the options available, I think this is the best one for now.

I also think we have reached a point where the general population are not going to comply anymore.

I do believe the mask mandate should have remained. I don't particularly like wearing one, but it's not really a massive inconvenience for many of us.

I actually think this is planned. They want cases to rise now. A mild dose of covid will act as a booster for many before we enter the winter and prevent deaths later in the year. Not saying I agree with this approach but it does seem a deliberate to get us to herd immunity more quickly.

I'd agree with this sentiment and I feel it's the right approach. A mild dose of Covid in it's present circulating forms could be protective against more dangerous future variants. The vaccines are working brilliantly to lessen serious illness.

There will be no safe time, unless people want to wait a few decades? We have to get on board with that and recognise the millions of people that have missed or delayed treatments and compromised quality of life/ shortened lives because of all the conditions then NHS have not been able to adequately address for so long.

Just bear in mind, immunity seems to wane after 6 months which takes us into the heart of winter when it's grim, ie jan/Feb /March

Some call it herd immunity I call it survival of the fittest. It is what it is - not ideal as supposedly government given up on containment (let alone zero Covid). Government is doing what it has always done worst. Incompetent and unfit for purpose surreal corrupt comedy act with seemingly good PR enough to win votes of the brainwashed or average public hard of thinking who have little analytical ability to see through the political gaslighting spin because of Brexit, vaccines (by scientists) and “freebies” such as furlough and no effective alternative opposition political options. We could have been Ardern New Zealand Covid good but instead joined Trump USA and Bolsonaro Brazil bad. Clueless and negligent as only experience note not expertise is in corruption and self enrichment. It’s basically by their own omission - “f…ing hopeless!” Good luck and stay safe as you have to look after yourself now especially as our unique English entitlement exceptionalism culture means no one else is going to care about your well-being as evidenced by fraudsters who lie about medical conditions to suite their personal convenience, can’t be bothered to test test test and more than contempt to pass the Covid tag baton to you asymptomatically.

Chris Whitty has been cautious and honest throughout in my view. If he considers that there is a decent argument for removing restrictions now then I'm willing to accept that view as reasoned and well considered.

That doesn't mean everyone will agree it's the right choice (something CW explicitly acknowledged) but if there is no real consensus at some point someone has to just make a decision and then stand by it.

@ResIpsaLoquiturInterAlia
Brilliant!!

I've been massively against lockdowns from day one however I do think - we have come this far and we have not yet done everything we can.

Restrictions shouldn't be fully lifted IMO until everyone has been offered a vaccine, both shots.

Beyond that, let it rip but it doesn't make sense before that.

The history books will not be kind to the UK. Lumped in with Trumps US and Brazil. Not great company.

err, until the vaccination programme is complete, obviously! Why not?

Because it won’t make an appreciable difference. If you’re an adult and still haven’t been vaxxed now, you were always very low risk of a serious case.

I read somewhere (maybe on here) that they wanted to wait until the 40-50 age group had 2 shots because under that age, the risks really are tiny. And I think I recall that 45 was round about the age where risks increased.

Obviously not nearly so much as when you get to 60s/70s, but it appears to be a boundary.

Just bear in mind, immunity seems to wane after 6 months which takes us into the heart of winter when it's grim, ie jan/Feb /March

That statement isn’t proven

My one beef with Ian Dunt's assessment isn't to do with medical science but behavioural science.

Parts of the northwest have been under restrictions since the end of last July. Restriction fatigue runs the risk of the spontaneous break down in compliance anyway. If we have restrictions we have to have public consent for them. They can not be enforced on a public who have burnt out from them. Otherwise you run the risk of civil unrest (which may include merely widespread civil disobedience).

In some respects I would argue we are in a position where we have no choice but to roll the dice for that reason. There are parts of the country which REALLY need a break.

This then gives us the option, should we need it in dire circumstances, to reimpose restrictions. I would argue that in that scenario we would get higher compliance than if we just plough on as we have been.

People I know who got a 'restrictions reprieve' just before Christmas, seemed to fair better than those stuck in restrictions pergatory.

Again in this sense, because of the behavioural implications I would argue that continuing with low level restrictions could be counter productive and be a gamble in its own right in the event we get a variant type spanner in the works.

Indeed Whitty has said that he does expect Covid to throw up one last surprise between now and next Spring, so if that is in his conscious, I would imagine that this concern is factored into why they have made the decision they have and rolled the dice.

It is scary. It is on a knife edge in terms of how this could go.

The point here is we don't have the benefit of hindsight and we have very few options left to us too. We need to acknowledge this position and the decreasing ability for government to intervene further even if they want to.

[quote Notsowise]@mrsanflowerpot just wanted to say I’m really sorry you’re in this situation with your child. I know we can’t lockdown forever and I wouldn’t support that but it’s just a really horrible situation that we’re in this situation, that this happened and there are children that needed protecting. I hope you’re able to get a vaccine soon.[/quote]
Thank you very much! I absolutely agree we can't lockdown forever and that some elements of life need to open up - and I won't be a hypocrite as both children have gone back (as have I!) with the restrictions in place in schools, although as a family we don't have physical contact - other than in our garden! - other than that, and DH lived away to work on the frontline for most of the heightened lockdowns (March - June 2020 and Dec - March 20/21). I am a secondary teacher and we have a couple of students with long Covid, have lost two staff to Covid and am aware that this plus my personal circumstances makes me bias. But I wish they would consider what things are actually like in schools - and other spaces - and open with safeguards in place. I understand why people don't want them, but we have safeguards for many other things and so as an educationalist I find it very hard to understand the reticence in this area.

Having said that - I do, as I say, recognise my bias - so will leave my thoughts there! 🌈 to all

Agree with you OP

This doesn't make any sense logically To remove restrictions with cases on the rise unless the government have gone back to a herd immunity strategy. (They want people to catch it) this would also fall in line with the new measures of not self isolating if you've had two jabs and have had exposure to someone positive.

What worries me is there lack of information - they aren't informing the public enough about their strategy and the risk this means. Having two jabs especially for the vulnerable doesn't make you immune and doesn't mean you aren't contagious.
Where as I have seen people acting as if Covid no longer exists as soon as they have been double vaccinated.

A Greater number of people with the disease leads to increasing risk of producing more variants. (Some of which could me more resistant to the vaccine).

Also scientists don't seem to have any understanding on the impact of Long Covid - all these kids catching it and passing it around - with no class room restrictions any longer there will be many more Long Covid cases in the younger generation - which no doubt will have a severe impact on the NHS in years to come.

Covid is going nowhere we can't lockdown and restrict the country forever .
If I was CEV I would just minimise the risk by my behaviour .

Interestingly this is a quote from Whitty today:

Speaking to the Local Government Association's (LGA) annual conference, Professor Whitty said: 'There will almost certainly be a Covid surge [in winter] and that will be on top of a return to a more normal respiratory surge.

'It's going to take quite a long time, I think, to get back to normality and I certainly would be surprised if we got back to what most of us would see as a kind of status quo — before the pandemic — by the next spring.

'Because I think we’ve got this current wave, hopefully there will be a period of quieter Covid after that, and then it will still be quite a difficult winter, especially for the NHS – then by next spring I’m hoping slightly more into a more predictable pattern.'

So the idea that the 19th is 'Freedom Day' couldn't be further from what Whitty is saying. Its a tabloid construct, which is possibly quite unhelpful.

I think Johnson has started to also put some distance between himself and that concept in what he's said and the tone of what he's said.

I'm always astounded at the lack of curiosity that we're the ONLY COUNTRY IN THE WORLD taking this approach.

Even Israel has re-introduced masks.

And we don't exactly have a good track record. It's unbelievable.

Someone twitter said the problem with covid is that you're taking personal responsibility for other people's health, not your own.

The callous disregard for the health of children and vulnerable people by a large proportion of the population has been something that has taken my breath away time and again.