Let's face it, they're letting it rip.

[ZednotZee]

Aren't they?

The vaccines aren't seemingly preventing transmission.

We are opening up on the 19th.

This is being done presumably as the public appetite for further lockdowns will be nil come October/November so best to get it over with now and have heard immunity come the autumn.

They won't say it but its becoming very clear that the immunocompromised need to continue to shield til the rest of us have contracted and got over the infection.

@GoldenOmber

Oh so you agree with me?

Well you should have said so, it didn't really need to be qualified.

This is the right time to do it. it has to be done now. We can't keep this yo-yoing. Keeping every one under restrictions just incase some one might get ill whilst lives and business are crumbling around every one has to stop. The vaccination program has been brilliant. We need to start be brave and stepping forward.

The stats show that kids are largely unaffected by this. In fact the majority of the population is.

@TempsPerdu

Agree that this is what they are probably doing, and that they should be more transparent about it. But I keep seeing posts like this, on MN and elsewhere, where posters urge a slower pace of unlocking, more caution, ongoing restrictions etc… but are always very coy about suggesting when it should all end. In truth it will never just be ‘a few more weeks’. It’s been ‘a few more weeks’ since April 2020, and yet here we are. There will always be a new variant; an unexpected surge somewhere in the country; a new booster dose that’s required; calls to vaccinate the entire world population before we can reopen…

I actually find it quite disingenuous in some cases, where the people being so stubbornly vague about timescales for their desired restrictions clearly mean they should be in place forever but just won’t admit it, as on some level they must know that this means a reduced quality of life for the entire population.

The government, and we as a society, are in a very unenviable position. There are no good answers here. What’s clear to me, though, is that we can’t live indefinitely under a ‘tyranny of safety’, where we continue to chase the impossible dream of zero covid deaths ever. It won’t happen; we will never be collectively ‘safe’ from covid and people will continue to die - it’s horrible but it’s inevitable.

Like everyone else on this thread I feel terribly for the CEV/immunosuppressed, who should be getting way more honest information and support, but, like it or not we are having this third wave, and surely better to relax things in the brief window of opportunity we have now than in the autumn, when other winter viruses begin to surge again.

Totally agree with this. Two more weeks, two more. 'Until we have more data'. There will always be two more weeks and there will always be more data. We can't live like this.

It does feel like we are all part of a big experiment. I feel so sorry for those who are CEV or could not have the vaccine. They are projecting 100,000 to 200,000 cases per day at the peak. With the vaccine the death rate is only 10% of what it was in January but this still means 300 to 600 deaths a day due to the high number of cases.

On the plus side though we should have high levels of immunity going into the winter.

@TheKeatingFive

I actually find it quite disingenuous in some cases, where the people being so stubbornly vague about timescales for their desired restrictions clearly mean they should be in place forever but just won’t admit it, as on some level they must know that this means a reduced quality of life for the entire population.

Very well observed, I totally agree.

I dont think they give a shit tbh. I think restrictions actually suit quite a lot of people.

No win situation

If the economy is not opened soon, the problems of the past 18 months will pale into insignificance

Vaccinations currently work. Two more months or so all adult population will be double vaccinated. To stop such things as mandatory masking in crowded indoor places at this stage when nearly there is reckless and unnecessary.

@scrambledcustard

You do? Thats interesting.

In what way?

I think the 19th should be pushed back until September. The government are dealing with a public who are increasingly frustrated with restrictions but that doesn't mean what they're doing is correct. We need more vaccinations to reach herd immunity to protect the cev.

So open up to coincide with the usual autumn/winter surges and pressures on hospitals? No. What they’re doing is far smarter than that.

If our scientists and medical officers were solely in charge of this decision I doubt they'd choose now as the time to take the brakes off.

Go and read what Chris Whitty is saying about this. He’s very clear about why this is the optimal time.

@BeckyWithTheGoodHair5629456

Confused by this thread. If you're CEV, then you can still wear a mask, social distance, stay away from crowded places. No one is forcing anyone to stop doing those things. The rest of us, who are comfortable with it, need to get back to some semblance of normality before we all lose our businesses, jobs, homes etc.

DH is NHS frontline. I am a senior leader in a school, DD is in a secondary school with 0 cases last Monday and 47 today, DS is 7 and in primary. My sister is double jabbed and has had a positive delta variant case as of last week, none of us would have to isolate from her even after close contact come next month.

DS is CEV - due to age no vaccine and no choice, will be in a school bubble of the whole school with no restrictions as will DD and I (and DH in hospital). For those like him some restrictions would make the world of difference when he and the rest of us are all in the firing line.

I'm not sure it's the right decision to drop all restrictions but if you are talking about people who are CEV mask wearing and limiting numbers indoors etc is irrelevant anyway. It doesn't make it completely safe for them to go out. It just slows the spread amongst the rest of the population.

I'll happily continue to wear a mask and be cautious, despite being double vaccinated but it is going to be with us forever and we can't go on and on with restrictions.

I think restrictions actually suit quite a lot of people.

There’s that too. I’ve no time at all for that, they can live however they like without dragging the rest of us along with them.

It would have been worse to lift restrictions on autumn/Winter. Now is the best time. When else do people suggest? If you want restrictions to stay in place, when do you think is a good time to lift them?

I feel for anyone with close family that cannot medically cope with vaccination but at population level, it needs to progress, so that people who can't have any vaccine are better protected from the risk. If I am vaccinated, I am unlikely to pass it on, so you are safer... I have had, being old, two shots. Heck I am even going to visit friends (of my age) in a COVID hotspot... and you know what, I am not even worried. I will see and embrace them (they are even a little older than us), we shall have dinner togther, and yes we shall wash our hands before eating, because everyone civilised washes their hands before eating.

The problem is that we will likely never reach 100% anti-body levels by the vaccine programme alone. We can't wait until we do. Its unrealistic and god knows when it will be.

The data tomorrow is likely to show we are at, or as near as damn it to the 90% mark, with another 2 weeks to go until the 19th.

ZednotZee your number of 14% needing to be extremely careful is based on flawed logic.

Many of those who don't have any antibodies will be in low risk groups and some of those who are high risk do have antibodies but these will be insufficient to help.

We also have a sizeable chunk of the population who will survive getting covid but are vulnerable health wise for other reasons. Arguably this number is much higher than those with no immunity to covid at this point.

We also have a group who are very vulnerable to covid, but also very vulnerable to restrictions so effectively are in a camp where they don't win either way - because they are so vulnerable. In this sense quality of life rather than risk becomes relevant and shouldn't be forgotten.

The argument against delaying further largely rests on the problem that we can't stop the Delta wave - only delay it especially because of the increased level of transmittability (and those who will suffer badly from it are in essence fucked either way - whether they get it now or in three months time)

Counter intitatively we might save lives if we go now rather than waiting because of the compound effect of seasonal illnesses in the winter with covid. The argument is along the lines of how when hospital beds become too full, survival rates of covid and other health issues decline due to staffing pressures. Thus in reopening earlier we give the vulnerable a better chance of survival, if they do have the misfortune to get Delta.

This seems to be the logic of where Whitty and other members of Sage are, and the latest Imperial University projections are also consistent with this.

You have to keep in mind here that Alpha couldn't be reduced by the pre-Christmas level of restrictions. The extra transmittability meant we had to up restrictions. Delta is even more transmittable. Arguably, in that context, how much of a difference are masks and social distancing going to help us? We still are going to get an R way above 1 with them.

The alternative is another - VERY strict lockdown over the next 6 weeks.

I'm not sure anyone is really going to seriously argue for that.

We are between a rock and a hard place and what we almost need to do is to get demand for the NHS to 'pass the thread through the eye of the needle' in terms of capacity over the coming months to prevent a 'car crash' in January. Thats basically trying to spread demand over as long a period as we can and getting the covid peak to hit at just the right moment, because deaths are already 'baked in' as they like to call it.

Its a gamble. There's also few other alternatives. And even fewer actually viable ones.

@mrsanflowerpot good point - thank you for sharing, I absolutely hadn't considered that kind of situation.

@TheKeatingFive

I actually find it quite disingenuous in some cases, where the people being so stubbornly vague about timescales for their desired restrictions clearly mean they should be in place forever but just won’t admit it, as on some level they must know that this means a reduced quality of life for the entire population.

Very well observed, I totally agree.

Well, it depends on what you mean by restrictions.

It sounds as though there will still be face masks in hospital, for example, after July 19th. So we will still have restrictions in some places, because it makes sense.

If we are going to have to live with covid, then some things are going to be a bit different.

I don't think you can say, oh it will be different/ this restriction should end in July or September or January next year.

I'm thinking some things will continue a bit different and we may get a lot closer to the old normal eventually but it will take time.

What is disingenuous and in some ways unhelpful is having a Freedom Day in a couple of weeks. We can change our behaviour but the virus will still be about. More freedom for some people will mean less freedom for others, and in some cases illness and death.

I can see that people in some sorts of businesses might think that a pay off still worth having.

I'm not against vaccinating 12+ if it protects them from Covid and if the risks of Covid are greater than the risk of the vaccine.

I do not agree with vaccinating children because too many adults have failed to get vaccinated and we then use the children to get herd immunity.

And if you think that across Europe similar decisions are being made regarding opening up, well you are naive to say the least. We are just doing it a bit earlier than most due to our vaccination campaign. And we do have the benefit of summer.

British Medical Association disagree with some of government’s plans:

“Responding to the announcement that wearing face masks will no longer be mandatory from 19 July, BMA council chair Dr Chaand Nagpaul said the emphasis on personal responsibility is ‘incoherent’ as the measure protects others, as opposed to the individual.

He said: ‘This cannot be about “personal choice” when the risk comes from others around you not wearing them.

‘It is inconceivable that the Government would allow for people, many of whom have no choice but to get public transport or be in confined places, to have to take the risk of becoming ill, particularly those who have not been fully vaccinated or cannot take the vaccine for health reasons.”

www.pulsetoday.co.uk/legal-requirement-to-wear-face-masks-to-end-when-covid-restrictions-lifted-says-pm/

[quote BeckyWithTheGoodHair5629456]@mrsanflowerpot good point - thank you for sharing, I absolutely hadn't considered that kind of situation. [/quote]
This has actually warmed my heart - thank you so much for saying so

My concern is about the idea of 'personal responsibility' and 'individual risk assessments' which in group terms simply won't work. With a highly contagious airborne virus often spread asymptomatically how can we have individual responsibility for the safety of ourselves (and others?)

I agree with the OP that it is a veiled herd immunity approach, and it's been wrapped up in this emotive 'freedom day' language as a vote winner.

I do expect there will need to be new restrictions in the winter.

What concerns me is the distrust of 'experts' in this populist post truth rhetoric. It feels like public compliance is going to wane (more than it already has), even when it's really needed.

Xiang, I'd like worry less about washing hands and more about opening windows or eating outside because the virus comes from the mouth and nose.

At some point this wave will peak then start to fall. Far better it peaks in August when the NHS should be able to cope than in Dec/Jan when it just won’t. I think for once the government have made the right call.

@Zotter

No win situation

If the economy is not opened soon, the problems of the past 18 months will pale into insignificance

Vaccinations currently work. Two more months or so all adult population will be double vaccinated. To stop such things as mandatory masking in crowded indoor places at this stage when nearly there is reckless and unnecessary.

I actually think this is planned. They want cases to rise now. A mild dose of covid will act as a booster for many before we enter the winter and prevent deaths later in the year.

Not saying I agree with this approach but it does seem a deliberate to get us to herd immunity more quickly.

If Covid is a huge threat to a clinically vulnerable child then I cannot understand why their Drs wouldn’t be exploring all avenues possible to get them a vaccine. It is approved for over 12s and channels exist to give it to under 12s if needs be.

And if you think that across Europe similar decisions are being made regarding opening up, well you are naive to say the least.

Europe doesn’t currently have 28,000 cases daily. They are running in the hundreds. They are opening up but keeping mandatory masking across many areas. Also their vaccination programme is fast catching up with U.K. Germany currently vaccinating approx 800,000 a day, U.K., 250,000.