Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

[boys3]

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Or to put it in more blunt North East parlance

don't post shite

OPs excluded obviously

Does anyone have the deaths per month numbers from March 2020 to June 2021, please?

@NannyAndJohn are you laughing at Brazil? Were you laughing at India?

No of course not. Other countries are looking at us I suspect warily and with caution because they know full well they could be next. It is more fear I would have thought like we did with Italy

The US has cases rise 10% this week and the busiest week of travel it has had since mid 2019. They are moving everywhere will little to no restrictions.

As much as it seems it is just us because that is where we are - it isnt. Delta is now at least 50% of the countries in the world.

@SecretKeeper1

Does anyone have the deaths per month numbers from March 2020 to June 2021, please?

Do you mean overall? www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence

@JanFebAnyMonth

Hi! Ok thanks, but school is a nightmare. I think we only have about half of the staff and children in this week.

Thanks for those charts Boys, I'm personally in the absolute thick of it.

In September we had a huge spike but it was mostly students. There are some student areas affected, the ones where they live in houses rather than student accommodation, but the difference is this time it's very much throughout all areas and now starting to be through most age groups.

My concern is that we aren't as ahead of vax as some places. Possibly younger age range?

So far hospitals ok but it's the very sharp increase that's a bit worrying. Health leaders seem confident we are ok though. It's schools and kids that this is really causing issues for and then obviously nhs staff, drs etc.

We've had a lot of pop up vax sites.

Annoyingly some areas don't break up for school hols till 23rd July, Newcastle is one of those. I think Gateshead too. NT is 16th.

Wondering what the impact of all restrictions lifting and schools still open for a week with high rates will have.

(Though most will be isolating at this rate!)

@nordica

I think it was Robert Jendrick who said on TV this morning there were 50,000 people from groups 1-9 who finally came forward for their 1st vaccine this past week. The unvaccinated cohort will include all the most resistant people so there just won't be the same demand now as there was when the booking first opened to each age group.

Going back a couple of pages, and my observations rather than hard data.

Sitting on a wall waiting for Dd18 to emerge from vaccine centre and a steady stream of vaccinees.

Mostly youngsters. Girls, had booked, boys had just turned up. They were running a fully flexible session this weekend.

Of others, notable were old unfit men turning up for their first, and forty something women who all requested assistance due to anxiety. Also a couple of young women with teeny babies, just born.

Just an interesting snapshot as to whom is left to vaccinate.

Wondering what the impact of all restrictions lifting and schools still open for a week with high rates will have

There are almost no restrictions that are relevant to the age group other than isolation, the actual measures that are being relaxed (nightclubs and weddings etc.) will not make a material difference in a week, I just can't see how.

Israeli health ministry data out today states Pfizer is only 64% effective against the Delta variant. Similarly, a separate study from the Hebrew University claims Pfizer is 60-80% effective.

This is against symptomatic illness. Protection against serious illness has dropped from 98 to 93% effectiveness over the last month as Delta has spread.

www.timesofisrael.com/ministry-data-said-to-show-pfizer-shot-blocks-majority-of-serious-delta-cases/

I would argue that if effectiveness is around 64% we need -more than ever- to keep the basic hygiene protocol in place (mask, SD, clean hands/most used surfaces, ventilation).

I think UK is letting it rip through a population who are:

• half vaccined
• even that is mostly with a less effective vacc
• huge demographics are totally unvaxed (and won't have an option to get a vacc.)

This feels insanely stupid.
Not for a second do I say we need to lock down. I hate it as the next person. But there will be no other mitigation measure left to use because all the free/easy/common sense ones will not be used.
How is this good for individuals, society or economy? I am not a big fan of conspiracy theories (to say the least) but it feels like there is some sinister alternative motive or sheer stupidity. Can't decide.

I am wondering if the UK vaccine effectiveness numbers (was it 80%?) are higher due to the longer gap between the two doses. I was a bit skeptical when one of SAGE members mentioned the 8 weeks "sweet spot" for the mRNA vaccines (not just AZ) but he might have actually known what he was talking about.

a bit more on the North East.

From the NHS report last Thursday, so a bit of a lag as the data cut-off is the previous Sunday. Although the vaccine effect is not immediate so the lag is probably not really an issue. And its a nice simple "one file with everything"; the dashboard of course will have the very latest figs for each individual council; however this is an easier way to show them all together.

Anyway all the North East Councils, plus the region, England overall, and the median for English Councils for 1st Dose and 2nd Dose vaccination uptake by age band.

Council age band shading relative to all other Councils in England; region shading just against the figures for the other English regions.

I am not a big fan of conspiracy theories (to say the least) but it feels like there is some sinister alternative motive or sheer stupidity.

I do not think anyone is disputing the need for ventilation:). This is the only non controversial point supported both by lockdown skeptics and zero Covid proponents. Everyone loves fresh air!:)

Re: masks and social distancing - the government knows they no longer have got the party majority to keep the restrictions for longer.

From the twitter account of Tom Newton Dunn (the Times Radio correspondent):

Scientific opinion differs widely. Ministers also privately admit it's a bet, and they don't quite know either. They also concede they no longer have enough Tory MPs' support to keep restrictions any longer.

What does Chris Whitty say on masks? SD comes at a cost generally.

I suppose he hasn’t stated his position but he does talk about using summer well so maybe this is a factor.

I would argue that if effectiveness is around 64% we need -more than ever- to keep the basic hygiene protocol in place (mask, SD, clean hands/most used surfaces, ventilation)

But that becomes increasingly irrelevant when all schools/uni's close, thereby placing more people back in their homes, where masks, SD, etc is obviously not practiced. It still remains true that the majority of infections are acquired within the home, brought in by a single person, and going through the household, and none of your mitigating factors have any effect in that environment.

Thanks Boys.

I don't know what to think about those vax rates. I'd prefer better tbh. Time will tell.

These are the highest rates we've had across all areas; however I don't know if there's been an impact on data of lateral flow tests.

Although we do have the highest rates in primary age children.

When a school bubble is closed here, they're strongly recommending that all children in the bubble get a pcr test, even if not poorly. Not sure if that's something across the country at the mo?

@wintertravel1980

I am wondering if the UK vaccine effectiveness numbers (was it 80%?) are higher due to the longer gap between the two doses. I was a bit skeptical when one of SAGE members mentioned the 8 weeks "sweet spot" for the mRNA vaccines (not just AZ) but he might have actually known what he was talking about.

Yes, I was wondering the same thing. Only thing I can think of that would explain the discrepancy.

@WarriorN

Thanks Boys.

I don't know what to think about those vax rates. I'd prefer better tbh. Time will tell.

These are the highest rates we've had across all areas; however I don't know if there's been an impact on data of lateral flow tests.

Although we do have the highest rates in primary age children.

When a school bubble is closed here, they're strongly recommending that all children in the bubble get a pcr test, even if not poorly. Not sure if that's something across the country at the mo?

That's recommended here, we had a letter from LCC public health about it

@wintertravel1980
I do not think anyone is disputing the need for ventilation. This is the only non controversial point supported both by lockdown skeptics and zero Covid proponents. Everyone loves fresh air!

You would be surprised!!

@BigWoollyJumpers
Ok, fair enough. But there is always 1 starting point within the household who is infections because of having been exposed to it outside of the home.
Whilst mitigation measures are unrealistic in the home, outside they would be still viable and would reduce the numbers. So I don't really see your point.

Someone earlier said "would you like to live in Singapore" and atm I'd rather be living in a closed off country where the focus is on keeping the citizens alive and healthy than in the UK. But it's very subjective. And there are lot more nuances inbetween the 2 very approaches that could yield a better result than what we have now.

but back to the numbers. Usually when things start to go sideways or in a good directions the lovely people here make informed (but biased) bets on how things will follow.

What are the outcomes that you think are possible given what we see of the trajectory now?

Anecdotal but I thought interesting as to spread…

Have heard nothing of covid in schools round here recently (Worcestershire but also close to Birmingham). Then this week my teacher friend’s bubble burst, she is primary teacher, now all have to isolate.

Then today we found out through Facebook (not the school!!), that my daughter’s year (year 6) has lots of positive cases. There are 2 classes in the year, one has half now isolating, other has couple of positive cases but are not isolating the class.

They have a play this week, a theme park day, an awards ceremony, a picnic day and a prom. All still going ahead 🙄🙄🙄

@TheSunIsStillShining

but back to the numbers. Usually when things start to go sideways or in a good directions the lovely people here make informed (but biased) bets on how things will follow.

What are the outcomes that you think are possible given what we see of the trajectory now?

I’m not great at maths but I’m guessing 60,000 cases a day and around 60 deaths a day by 19th July?

Which I assume the government will say is ‘reasonable’.

Then SD etc will be stopped (press conference tonight so will see exactly what is said then), which will make cases rise, but schools (in England) will shut for Summer so should bring cases down?

Re: vaccinations and North East:

Thanks for the tables, boys3. I guess the last screenshot illustrates why I do not think the Newcastle situation is particularly unusual. It seems to have the lowest vaccination rates in "older" groups in comparison to other local authorities in NE.

It is a very fair point that mass seeding of Delta in Newcastle was different from Blackburn. The initial big spike seen in the first half of June was driven by students rather than returning travellers. However, both places seem to have relatively large pockets of "older" unvaccinated population so we are seeing Covid spillovers into those categories.

Observation, rather than data, but I would say that take up of vaccine amongst younger people is heavily related to other demographics. Those at, or heading to, uni and those with family support, steady jobs etc.

Once again, those with complex lives, and less likely (or less able) to observe precautionary measures are less likely to be vaccinated.