If you think cases are exploding and vaccines are ineffective, what’s to be done?

[IrmaFayLear]

I see a number of posters are keen to draw attention to a huge rise in cases, plus new variants coming in too. They are also eager to point out vaccine failure.

I would be interested to know what their personal view is of our medium to long-term prospects. If no end is in sight and vaccines do not work, do they foresee societal collapse?

Hopefully, if the booster vaccine for the most vulnerable is not Pfizer, there will be enough to reduce the disruption of education in the autumn / winter.

[quote Crackbadger]@Thewiseoneincognito what sort of compromise in our way of life are you thinking of?[/quote]
In all honesty it’s impossible to speculate at this point because the public doesn’t really know very much aside from cases are increasing and ‘Freedom’ day is coming in July.

The vaccines appear to be holding down the death rate and hospitalisations seem stable for now according to the numbers that have been released. The risk will be the amount of cases present in the population as I mentioned before, thousands of cases per day leaves us vulnerable to a few potential issues.

Us living with Covid means living with the ebb and flow of the waves, but left unmitigated what does that risk once numbers are rising? The only way we can slow down rising numbers is to make compromises, social distancing, capacity limits, masks and so on. It is illogical to assume because we are fed up of Covid that we can simply wish it away, some effort will be required on our part.

Compromise will also be needed to keep any vaccine resistant variants from spreading as and when they appear in the world, because once that happens we risk going back to square one and it may be a fairly rapid reversal without any precautions in place to protect the progress we’ve made so far.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Stop talking sense!

I do find it funny though that the same “live with covid” is used by people to mean completely different things. I’m obviously on your side of it, mitigation is living with covid. But I do find the people who say it to mean, back to pre-pandemic life, and the consequences are irrelevant, “wish it away”. Spot on.

Bono is making an announcement in a few weeks.... not saying the rise in numbers go hand in hand but......

If a CV mutant strain escapes vaccines then, without mitigation, it has the potential to overwhelm health systems.

It works both ways, those that don’t agree with restrictions need to explain how they would manage the impact on the NHS (in the face of such a hypothetical strain). Plus how many deaths are acceptable before they might consider restrictions.

Not Bono although maybe I meant Bojo 😣

"Even NHS staff think these people should remain at home if infected and not seek treatment (except those with medical reasons why they can't have the vaccine)."

Any nhs staff or any other medical personnel thinks like that, then they are in the wrong job. They generally take their oath seriously and treat these who need it irrespective of why they need it. They don't get to judge.

@XenoBitch

According to nurse relative, most of those in hospital have chosen not to be vaccinated, despite being offered vaccine. We must no longer set national policy to protect people who choose to take their chances with the virus. Even NHS staff think these people should remain at home if infected and not seek treatment (except those with medical reasons why they can't have the vaccine)

The HCPs who hold such views that unvaccinated people should be denied treatment should be struck off. Such a slippery slope.

Absolutely this!

#Bono4PM

19:16cantkeepawayforever

I think it is a shame that the JCVI is not taking into account the indirect effects of high infections in schoolchildren, in terms of repeated isolations.

I agree. Children are bearing a huge cost in this pandemic, especially those of school age. Their education and social development have been turned upside down and there's no end in sight with no vaccine plans confirmed for children. It's scandalous.

@WokeGroaker

19:16cantkeepawayforever

I think it is a shame that the JCVI is not taking into account the indirect effects of high infections in schoolchildren, in terms of repeated isolations.

I agree. Children are bearing a huge cost in this pandemic, especially those of school age. Their education and social development have been turned upside down and there's no end in sight with no vaccine plans confirmed for children. It's scandalous.

I remain appalled by this. It feels as if the two courses of action available are:

• Keep isolating for positive cases, despite the educational and emotional disruption this cases (to pupils, parents and staff - it's not comfortable keeping a phone on my desk at all times, ready to close my bubble at any moment)

• Stop isolating for positive cases and allow Covid to spread freely in schools, which may reduce some educational disruption but has more health implications for staff, families and pupils (as well as risking the creation of further variants)

The much more sensible options of a) vaccination and b) effective mitigations in schools seem to have been entirely disregarded.

Vaccination has been disregarded for now as several children would be seriously ill or die from myocarditis. For a disease which is mild for them. Can you imagine the horror of doing that to our young? What parent would consent unless their DC was highly vulnerable

The question is whether the mental and physical harm - and damage to future prospects - caused by significantly disrupted years of education (in September, children will be entering the third year of education that has been affected by Covid, despite the very best attempts of many schools to limit the impact) is worth putting into the equation?

So on the one hand there is

1. the harm from Covid (small)
2. the impact on children of harm to family and others to whom children may pass Covid
3. the harm to life prospects and mental health from repeated unplanned isolations (necessary to keep 2) to an acceptable level)
4. the ongoing harm to CEV children, who are either at risk in school or wholly isolated at home for many months

On the other hand we have

1. the risk of myocarditis from one of the vaccines proposed for this age group

At a practical level, we also have to cut our coat according to our cloth - give the vaccines where they bring most benefit. However, once supply limitations have been overcome, then the other factors do have to be offset against each other. Certainly another good vaccine, or more studies / tweaks to existing ones, might completely swing the balance over to vaccination of children

(Also, if the skyrocketing rates of infection in school age children do lead to more direct harm from Covid to this age group, the balance again shifts towards vaccination)

*I still maintain we vaccinate only the more vulnerable whatever happens. There are too many unknowns to vaccinate those who don’t need it or want it. I am also —and I say this a lot - wiling to bet my last face mask - that natural immunity is more beneficial against variants because of T cell immunity.

I think we let as many kids get it as possible over the summer so this winter is better all round*

This makes a lot of sense and sounds very balanced.

What and where did you read about future vaccines being more effective against variants @Roonerspismed?

We have 84% 1st vaccination and 68% 2nd vaccination in our area. There are no patients on ventilation in the main county hospital ( the only ICU) and 4 patients on the covid ward, down from 6 last week. Cases are rising but only in the 0-59 age group. No cases in the over 60s. Heat map shows the majority of cases are in 20-30 yr olds, still pretty low. They are now offering vaccination to under 20s, DS 16 had his first one 2weeks ago.
I think the vaccination is working.

@Roonerspismed

Vaccination has been disregarded for now as several children would be seriously ill or die from myocarditis. For a disease which is mild for them. Can you imagine the horror of doing that to our young? What parent would consent unless their DC was highly vulnerable

@Roonerspismed vaccines for children have been disregarded? I hadn't heard that, do you have an authentic source for that?

@Angrymum22

We have 84% 1st vaccination and 68% 2nd vaccination in our area. There are no patients on ventilation in the main county hospital ( the only ICU) and 4 patients on the covid ward, down from 6 last week. Cases are rising but only in the 0-59 age group. No cases in the over 60s. Heat map shows the majority of cases are in 20-30 yr olds, still pretty low. They are now offering vaccination to under 20s, DS 16 had his first one 2weeks ago. I think the vaccination is working.

Our vaccination stats are similar, open to 18 year olds now.

Cases up over 100%, to higher than any time since last summer except for a few weeks in January.

Patients in hospital up over 200%.

No secondary schools fully open - there is one year group that is disrupted in every single local school.

I am aware of the risks re heart inflammation and did monitor DS and will do after the second dose. There is probably around 0.006% chance of this complication (rough fag pack calculation based on American population data). Mortality rate for Covid is quite a bit higher.
It’s all about risk assessment. There is a very small risk of death with the vaccine but the chances of dying with the disease is much higher, albeit still very small. So why not limit the risk. We limit risk in so many ways while still allowing children to enjoy activities that carry risk, for example wearing a cycle helmet, it won’t stop them having an accident but if they do it may prevent a severe brain injury or death.
Unfortunately the art of risk assessment is no longer encouraged.

Statistics are wonderful tools. Our cases are up by 200% from 8 to 32. You would only need another household for hospital cases to increase by 100%. Look at the actual figures not the %.

Covid itself causes myocarditis.

www.healthychildren.org/English/tips-tools/ask-the-pediatrician/Pages/Does-the-COVID-19-vaccine-cause-myocarditis-in-teens-and-young-people.aspx

Especially with the more contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 now circulating, the risks of being unvaccinated and becoming ill with COVID-19 are far greater than any rare side effects from the vaccines.

Thousands of children have been hospitalized, and hundreds have died after being infected with COVID-19. Some children who have recovered still experience lingering symptoms. In fact, getting infected with COVID-19 itself is much more likely to cause myocarditis than the vaccine.

Based on the latest evidence, myocarditis appears to be an extremely rare side effect—one that pales in comparison to the potential risks of COVID-19 infection. The CDC, along with the American Academy of Pediatrics and other major medical groups, continues to recommend COVID-19 vaccination for people 12 years and older.

The problem isn't the vaccines, it's that not everyone eligible has been jabbed. I persuaded someone to get one today, he was 48 so eligible for months, he was scared of the side effects

@hopeishere

The vaccine does not stop you getting covid. It reduces the chance of serious illness.

This.

I know two people who had Covid last year, have been vaccinated, and now have Covid for a second time (presumably Delta variant this time). However, neither of them is seriously ill.

The vaccines are proven to reduce hospitalisation.