If you think cases are exploding and vaccines are ineffective, what’s to be done?

[IrmaFayLear]

I see a number of posters are keen to draw attention to a huge rise in cases, plus new variants coming in too. They are also eager to point out vaccine failure.

I would be interested to know what their personal view is of our medium to long-term prospects. If no end is in sight and vaccines do not work, do they foresee societal collapse?

Prognoses for the future, that is, not for my “wind up me” problem!

I most certainly do not. I just want to know what some posters think our way out is.

I agree with TheClaws. I think your intent isn't great.

The 'close the borders' approach is a truly bizarre level of stupidity. How can anyone think it'll work?

Australia is up shit creek because they took the 'close the borders' approach but vaccination has been very slow and people are reluctant. So how long do they keep their borders closed for? Years? There will always be unvaccinated people, there will always be covid in the world. So what's the end game? Just make Australia an isolated prison?

Closing borders is pure and utter nonsense. At some point borders have to open again and then the same variants will move around. Closing the borders just delays the problem, it doesn't remove it.

Societal collapse? No. Societal shift? Possibly.

Right now what is happening with the numbers was expected to some extent, we have unlocked a great deal compared to how things looked back in Jan/Feb so an increase in cases was to be expected even with the vaccine roll out, we also have more testing too. What wasn’t anticipated was a strain more infectious than the Kent one which had helped drive our winter wave in the first place.

Delta is a problem because of the surge in cases from its higher infection rate, more cases is not good news. High levels of virus in the general population means more of the vulnerable vaccinated and those who can not be vaccinated are still at risk, efficacy for them is still not guaranteed so we have a problem. High virus levels also provide more opportunities for mutations, for better or worse.

The vaccines we have now are not a cure. It is true We need to learn to live with Covid but we also must appreciate that living with Covid will require some changes in our behaviour. We can not live with Covid like it’s 2019 again, it just can not happen simply because the stakes will be too high for too many people. Of course some will try but it will become crystal clear soon enough that we must compromise, and that is going to be a hard pill for some to swallow.

I did read about future vaccines working better against all variants. It was interesting.

I still maintain we vaccinate only the more vulnerable whatever happens. There are too many unknowns to vaccinate those who don’t need it or want it. I am also —and I say this a lot - wiling to bet my last face mask - that natural immunity is more beneficial against variants because of T cell immunity.

I think we let as many kids get it as possible over the summer so this winter is better all round

@Thewiseoneincognito

Societal collapse? No. Societal shift? Possibly.

Right now what is happening with the numbers was expected to some extent, we have unlocked a great deal compared to how things looked back in Jan/Feb so an increase in cases was to be expected even with the vaccine roll out, we also have more testing too. What wasn’t anticipated was a strain more infectious than the Kent one which had helped drive our winter wave in the first place.

Delta is a problem because of the surge in cases from its higher infection rate, more cases is not good news. High levels of virus in the general population means more of the vulnerable vaccinated and those who can not be vaccinated are still at risk, efficacy for them is still not guaranteed so we have a problem. High virus levels also provide more opportunities for mutations, for better or worse.

The vaccines we have now are not a cure. It is true We need to learn to live with Covid but we also must appreciate that living with Covid will require some changes in our behaviour. We can not live with Covid like it’s 2019 again, it just can not happen simply because the stakes will be too high for too many people. Of course some will try but it will become crystal clear soon enough that we must compromise, and that is going to be a hard pill for some to swallow.

Your last paragraph is utter bollocks. People drink, smoke, drive too fast, ride motorbikes, take drugs, engage in risky sex, do dangerous sports, fail to take necessary medication, self-harm etc etc etc. The idea that they'll take inconvenient precautions against one single virus forever is bonkers.

the few people who have been hospitalised after double vaccine are those whose immunity system is compromised ie on chemo etc or other multiple co-morbidities. Most people who have had double vaccinated have not got covid not even a milder case - a few might get very mild or asymptomatic

@TheDailyCarbunkle most of those things you have listed are regulated by the government, it’s illegal to smoke in public buildings, drugs are illegal, we have speed limits with fines, risky sex has legal parameters, self harm is seen as mental illness. So yes people do engage in those activities but society in general frowns upon them.

I suppose time will tell how we get on with living with Covid. I suppose one form of compliance will be proving your vaccination status to travel, it’s a fairly broad step towards regulation of Covid, are you going to comply with that?

@TheDailyCarbunkle

The 'close the borders' approach is a truly bizarre level of stupidity. How can anyone think it'll work?

Australia is up shit creek because they took the 'close the borders' approach but vaccination has been very slow and people are reluctant. So how long do they keep their borders closed for? Years? There will always be unvaccinated people, there will always be covid in the world. So what's the end game? Just make Australia an isolated prison?

Closing borders is pure and utter nonsense. At some point borders have to open again and then the same variants will move around. Closing the borders just delays the problem, it doesn't remove it.

This is why vaccines are the solution. Australia is vaccinating while the borders are closed. The borders will begin to open when the population reaches a good level of vaccination, particularly among key sectors. Not "bizarre stupidity" at all, and I can't imagine why you'd describe at such unless you have some kind of odd agenda.

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@TheDailyCarbunkle most of those things you have listed are regulated by the government, it’s illegal to smoke in public buildings, drugs are illegal, we have speed limits with fines, risky sex has legal parameters, self harm is seen as mental illness. So yes people do engage in those activities but society in general frowns upon them.

I suppose time will tell how we get on with living with Covid. I suppose one form of compliance will be proving your vaccination status to travel, it’s a fairly broad step towards regulation of Covid, are you going to comply with that?[/quote]
I agree that a lot of those things are regulated by the government, but plenty of people still do them - my point is that even if some extremely anxious people want everyone to join in with their anxiety with pointless covid theatre, many people simply will not comply.

I'm not being vaccinated no matter how much coercion the government tries to apply.

Australia has very tough border (even within the country between states) but still they have escaped cases at the moment. As the vaccine take up is quite low they will eventually have an issue. When they fully open not enough people would have had the vaccine or the disease to stop a fully fledged epidemic.
There is evidence that having a case of covid doesn't necessarily mean long term immunity - hence why they want people who have had the disease to still get vaccinated.
I worry about countries where there is either a reluctance to get vaccinated or there is not enough vaccine.

@TheDailyCarbunkle, I have PM'd you (nothing bad!). I hope you don't mind.

@IrmaFayLear

I see a number of posters are keen to draw attention to a huge rise in cases, plus new variants coming in too. They are also eager to point out vaccine failure.

I would be interested to know what their personal view is of our medium to long-term prospects. If no end is in sight and vaccines do not work, do they foresee societal collapse?

I've seen a lot of people use straw-man arguments like this to dispel any attempt by others to point out that caution is required, rather like Leavers have used the lack of WWIII starting to justify Brexit success, despite nobody in the Remain camp ever mentioning a war!

It's been crucial all along that we get our vaccination program to a certain point BEFORE a new variant, capable of substantially beating them could get in. It's much harder to deal with a variant already here in large numbers than to fight a new one trying to get in.
When Delta arrived we didn't know the extent to which vaccines suppressed transmission of it (we still aren't certain) so caution was essential. It's still essential - a large wave of infections is still a problem, but we may be getting closer and closer to herd immunity now.

If everything goes well, post July we'll still need to monitor new variants when they pop up abroad and take measures to stop them arriving in the UK and/or dealing with them here if they do, but with a population largely immunised, that will be much easier to do than currently.

@Roonerspismed

I did read about future vaccines working better against all variants. It was interesting.

I still maintain we vaccinate only the more vulnerable whatever happens. There are too many unknowns to vaccinate those who don’t need it or want it. I am also —and I say this a lot - wiling to bet my last face mask - that natural immunity is more beneficial against variants because of T cell immunity.

I think we let as many kids get it as possible over the summer so this winter is better all round

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/previous-covid-infection-may-not-offer-long-term-protection-study-finds

@TheClaws 3% of Australian adults are currently fully vaccinated. That's 3 per cent. People are cancelling AZ appointments in high numbers. So what are they going to do? Force people to be vaccinated?

The vaccines do work.

But we need 87% fully vaccinated to get R below 1.

We're only half way there.

@Thewiseoneincognito what sort of compromise in our way of life are you thinking of?

I don't know whether I count in the doom-monger camp?

The vaccine roll-out is amazing BUT we need to think about it sensibly and calmly, rather than assume that 'being vaccinated' = 'being safe to act completely as normal'.

We have to think about those who are not immune, whether they have been vaccinated and this has not been effective (most likely in the elderly and immunocompromised, already vulnerable); whether they have been partially vaccinated (having had only 1 vaccination or not yet having had time for their vaccines to have full effect); or whether they are not vaccinated at all (most probably due to age).

In a 'normal' scenario, those without immunity are well separated in society, so if someone is infected, the infection does not spread rapidly from them because of the protective 'ring' of those with immunity.

In the 'Covid immunity created by vaccine' scenario, while those who have not developed good immunity after vaccination are fairly randomly distributed, the unvaccinated are all gathered together in particular places (schools and colleges, for example). This means that while percentage fully vaccinated in some groups within society is reaching enough for herd immunity, there will not be genuine herd immunity until there is the right percentage vaccinated / have gained immunity via infection in certain groups, and unfortunately these are also the groups gathered for long periods daily in the most Covid-unsafe environments such as schools.

so vaccinations WILL be effective, of that I am confident. however, to truly achieve herd immunity, either those uder 18 will have to be fully vaccinated too, in numbers enough for herd immunity, OR we must still go through the very painful process of allowing Covd to naturally infect 80-90% of children and young people - with all the possibilities for mutation and infection of others that presents.

We will be OK in the end, but we are further off the end than many people think.

Worst case scenario it will burn itself out in a few years like every other pandemic has. It isn't the first time we've had this and it won't be the last. Googling historical pandemics is really interesting.

@TheDailyCarbunkle Yes and how long will foreign born NHS workers be prepared to stay here with the prospect of not being able to go and visit their families for an arbitrary length of time.

Once I’ve got my second dose. People can do what they want. Knock yourselves out.

@HolidayAtHome

The vaccines we have do work against the variants in this country.

The key thing is not to let any other variants into the country. So the government need to stop the stupidity about getting foreign holidays happening again. It is a lot cheaper to support the travel industry financially while closed due to border closures than to support the entire economy while closed due to another national lockdown (apart from pubs obvious because BJ promised that was irreversible )

Exploding case numbers are among school children, yet the Pfizer vaccine is licensed in over12s in the UK and is being given to over-12s in the US and EU. For some reason (antivaxxers in government) even optional vaccination of over12s is being blocked by the government.

According to nurse relative, most of those in hospital have chosen not to be vaccinated, despite being offered vaccine. We must no longer set national policy to protect people who choose to take their chances with the virus. Even NHS staff think these people should remain at home if infected and not seek treatment (except those with medical reasons why they can't have the vaccine).

It's not anti vaxxers in government blocking vaccines for 12-18 year olds

It's the JCVI. They have said that vaccines should not be given to that age group. That decision would have been made by weighing up the risk of Covid to under 18s (flu is more deadly) versus the risk of side effects from vaccination (the stats from the CDC re myocarditis in teenage boys is particularly worrying after Pfizer). It would have also been based on supply. We were relying on AZ to complete the task, but that can't be used for under 40s, so now we have to use what little Pfizer we have to finish all adults. Over 18s are more at risk than under 18s so this is a sensible approach.

Membership of the JCVI:

Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
Professor Lim Wei Shen, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
Dr Kevin Brown (Public Health England)
Dr Rebecca Cordery (Public Health England)
Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
Alison Lawrence (lay member)
Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals)

I think it is a shame that the JCVI is not taking into account the indirect effects of high infections in schoolchildren, in terms of repeated isolations.

But I do know that they are supply limited, so have to focus on where the direct benefits are greatest.