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Why are all the Covid conspiracy theory’s coming true?

620 replies

sunnnysideup · 21/06/2021 22:24

Honest question?

OP posts:
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5
ollyollyoxenfree · 23/09/2021 21:46

These findings can be contrasted against two of the large RCTs findings null effects of ivermectin. For example- the Together trial:

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777389

Evidence was found for a protective effect of fluvoxamine which is excellent news, not sure why the anti-vax crowd have no interest in this. It truly is a bizarre state of affairs.

IncredulousOne · 23/09/2021 21:49

@Finknottlesnewt

FACT CHECK.

Office of national statistics.

Number of deaths from Covid between Jan -July 21 of those not vaccinated. 38, 964.

Number of deaths from Covid from those who had had 2 doses. 458

Sunnysideup you are talking bollox. Sorry if that is blunt but the figures speak for themselves.

I agree - anyone who says that the vaccines don't work is wrong. But I think people need to be given the full picture.

For example, you've missed out the 1-dose figures from that data:

Unvaccinated: 38964
1st dose: 11677
2nd dose: 640

The ONS themselves state that you are at most risk in the 21 days after the first dose. Presumably, the immune system is flat out fighting the spikes but hasn't yet developed antibodies, which leaves you vulnerable to an opportunistic Covid infection. After that 21 days, you've developed antibodies and have a significant level of protection.

From an epidemiological point of view, it is worth noting that this data goes from January (when almost no-one was vaccinated) up to early July (when we'd vaccinated as far as about 40+).

I'd also note that this time span pretty much only covers the alpha wave. Delta took off in July. The vaccines appear to be considerably less effective against infection and transmission of the delta variant.

However, this does NOT mean "the vaccines don't work". They do still offer a good level of protection against hospitalisation and death (which is important for not overwhelming the NHS, but not much help in controlling the spread).

At least we can all hope that this level of protection continues.

IncredulousOne · 23/09/2021 22:04

@ollyollyoxenfree

These findings can be contrasted against two of the large RCTs findings null effects of ivermectin. For example- the Together trial:

jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777389

Evidence was found for a protective effect of fluvoxamine which is excellent news, not sure why the anti-vax crowd have no interest in this. It truly is a bizarre state of affairs.

The sample size was similar to the paper I referenced. The study showed a 2 day reduction in average time to resolution with Ivermectin (10 days Vs 12 days). It showed slightly higher % of patients (82% Vs 79%) had resolution at 21 days with Ivermectin.

It's not setting the world alight, but it is evidence of a small positive effect. (And getting patients out the door 2 days quicker might actually be really helpful if the health service is stretched).

Different doses/use of adjuvants might improve those stats to something more significant.

As I've tried to repeatedly make clear - I'm not saying it's a magic cure. I am saying there is evidence that it can have a positive effect, and to simply try to shut down all such discussion as conspiracy theories or horse dewormer has the opposite effect to the one you are intending.

For the record, I'm also not advocating that people rush out and buy horse dewormer and then try and guess what fraction of a horse dose is applicable to a human. But I do note that many countries include Ivermectin in their treatment regime - not as a sole cure, but as part of a range of treatments that can be used.

IncredulousOne · 23/09/2021 22:19

@ollyollyoxenfree

Just noticed you're also peddling HCQ as a COVID treatment. Jeez *@IncredulousOne*

That isn't even in question anymore - it's categorically been proven to not to improve COVID outcomes.

All the claims you come out with are propagated from the same groups though, so it's unsurprising you're also repeating this piece of misinformation.

For the record, I'm not peddling HCQ. I said

"I would for balance note that some of the studies used to discredit treatments like Ivermectin and HCQ have used inappropriate doses at inappropriate stages of treatment."

I was attempting to put into context the quoting of studies that had shown no benefit for Ivermectin by highlighting that there have been studies for both Ivermectin and HCQ that have shown no benefit because the used inappropriate doses at inappropriate stages of treatment. I mentioned HCQ because the study which was most heavily publicised to discredit HCQ was flawed in this way.

As it turned out, the evidence for HCQ is generally that it has little to no benefit, but by using a treatment protocol that was doomed to failure before the test even started, all that was achieved was giving ammunition to those who thought it's use was being malevolently suppressed. And it took other studies to actually prove that it didn't work.

ollyollyoxenfree · 23/09/2021 22:20

@IncredulousOne

and to simply try to shut down all such discussion as conspiracy theories or horse dewormer has the opposite effect to the one you are intending.

Hmm at no point have I done either of these things - I've pointed out when you're posting misinformation (when not deleted by MNHQ). I've repeatedly brought the discussion back to the actual scientific evidence surrounding ivermectin.

You seem to have multiple posting strategies.

A couple of posts ago you were banging on about 65 studies on the fraudulent ivnmeta website, ignoring all comments about the issues surrounding the site. You then tried to promote a poor quality narrative review as evidence of effect and stated people should be receiving guidance on how to take it.

Re your last post where it's like you've had a personality transplant: the study is low risk of bias and is a reasonable quality. However, as the authors state themselves, it is not robust evidence of effect. This is particularly relevant when contrasted against the two large, better quality RCTs which have shown a null effect.

chickenandchipsinabasket · 23/09/2021 22:32

@Staryflight445

It’s fairly standard knowledge *@aboverubies7* what method is used for most vaccines. Perhaps improve your knowledge and understand how our body reacts to these and why these new vaccines also work/ are safe. It’s not a new method of vaccine and has been in the making for over 20 years.

You’re right, I am triggered highly by people like you. You are nothing more than an uneducated scaremonger and literally do no good to anyone. If anything, people like you cause more damage than good.
You’ve got to ask yourself, why are you so influenced by these nonsensical people who throw such ridiculous claims out there? What do you think their purpose is?

@aboverubies7 surely it's obvious there aren't chips or magnets in covid vaccines
knittingaddict · 23/09/2021 23:03

@IncredulousOne

But that's not the drug being dangerous, that's people overdosing because they're not being given the guidelines to take it appropriately.

The current official advice for Covid is to stay home and take paracetamol. I could put forth the same argument as you and claim that paracetamol is an "untested and dangerous drug" because people can overdose on that too. (In fact it's probably easier to kill yourself by overdosing on paracetamol than on Ivermectin)

Let me think.

People are not being told the correct dose of Invermectin by authorities because IT DOESN'T WORK.

People are told to take paracetamol because it's a commonly used pain killer that almost everyone knows the correct dose of and, if they don't, it's written on the box.

Do you really believe the things you say?

MLMbotsno · 23/09/2021 23:12

@MissConductUS

I had my Pfizer booster jab on Tuesday and expect a complete loss of my punctuation skills at any moment.
🤣
aboverubies7 · 24/09/2021 00:19

@Staryflight445

‘ There lies the problem, they are absolutely in denial of any possibility that the vaccines pose any sort of risk.

If they were, they would be upfront about the adverse reactions and recall it. But no, they have no interest in being transparent about the side effects, even the most extreme and fatal.’

@aboverubies7 they make you read a leaflet before giving you the vaccine which details all of the known side effects including the most serious.
They’re nothing different to the side effects known when it comes to other vaccines.
They have never been risk free.
You can easily find said side affects online too, nobody, absolutely nobody is disputing that issues can arise after having a vaccine.

Here we have a classic case of blissful but wilful ignorance.

"Nobody is disputing issues can arise"

They are. You are.

Nobody wants to believe or entertain the thought that the risk of being vaxxed is HIGHER than getting the virus. And so it isn't be discussed.

When the masses are being prodded into thinking that your vaccination status is a reflection of virtue and selflessness then cognitive dissonance won't even allow people to fully scrutinise the level of risk in fear of "vaccine hesitancy" or the stigma of the "anti-vaxxer' label

Your lil piece of paper cites symptoms that draw parallels with that of a bad hangover. Not sure why it hasn't clicked for you, but this is not the "risks" I'm talking about.

Then you cast your eyes down to the most extreme adverse reactions; myocarditis, pericarditis, bells palsy, death.. life altering, debilitating, fatal. They're merely a footnote.

"may affect 1 in 1,000"

"not known" "cannot be estimated"

This is exactly what I'm alluding to. Why shouldn't this be a point of concern? Nobody can provide assurances that you won't develop a droopy face, heart inflammation or be rendered sterile.

As soon as somebody insists on looking into this, they're wading into conspiratorial territory?

They haven't even bothered to provide conclusive data to verify how rare it is. Why? Because they haven't dedicated any effort or resources to comprehensively assess the risk in the long term.

But the words "may" or "not known" is more than enough for the lemmings. Then they have the audacity to lob adhominens at the people who aren't buying the injectable cocktail of garbage they're selling

I've noticed you keep downplaying the censorship. You seem to have this myopic, solipsistic approach that as long as it's not a news headline, as long as I don't see it - it's not happening!

Are you aware that Twitter and Facebook have introduced policy that permabans users for posting factual content that may influence people to not get the shot?
Are you aware that Reddit has an algorithm that deletes posts from the vaxxed complaining about adverse reactions?
Are you aware that the White House has called for the deplatforming of esteemed medical academics like Robert Malone, pioneer of mRNA technology, for being sceptical about the vax push?

And my question is: Do you condone it?

aboverubies7 · 24/09/2021 00:39

@Staryflight445

Let’s face it though. Conspiracy theories are created by fear. Unfortunately fear allows for easy manipulation with misinformation. It really is sad to see such content on this thread that is full of more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese.

When we have a range of sources online that we can trust and bust the myths with.

The main conspiracy theorists I’ve seen online are generally known to the police and a bit ‘rough’ and probably just enjoy spreading fear and misinformation because they hate the system.

We’re all entitled to our own opinions but those opinions should at least come from trusted, correct information and not lies.

Tapdancing for the corporate vipers who could care less whether you live or die, just as long as their stock price is rising is rooted in fearfulness

Blind faith in notoriously corrupt organisations most definitely stems from fear

No willpower or impetus to challenge the deception is a product of fear

Docile obedience and conformity is an amalgamation of fear and cowardice

"fear allows for easy manipulation" indeed it does! keep bowing to groupthink, see where that gets you

aboverubies7 · 24/09/2021 00:44

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

Snugglybuggly · 24/09/2021 01:09

They aren't!

aboverubies7 · 24/09/2021 01:39

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

AlixandraTheGreat · 24/09/2021 01:59

@aboverubies7

Have you read about the side effects of hydroxychloroquine? Just wondering.

Idyllic · 24/09/2021 05:29

Well, the scientists letter in the Lancet that for all intents and purposes shut down the debate on whether the virus had been manipulated or leaked from WIV was very effective. However, it turns out that 26 out of the 27 signatories actually have links to the Wuhan lab. Conflict of interest?
Is that a CT? Also (allegedly) Fauci /the US were funding gain of function research at Wuhan.

I don't believe in 5G chips /trackers/Great Reset or any of that malarkey. However, I think Covid has been great for governments bringing in far more draconian and authoritarian rules which they could have only dreamed about imposing.

If that makes me a conspiracy theorist, so be it. C'est la vie.

knittingaddict · 24/09/2021 09:56

A drug, dirt cheap, that's been in use for 50 odd years.. is untried and potentially dangerous?

too much knitting not enough thinking hun

Well aren't you the charmer aboverubires. Grin

I've explained in a previous post:

Literally anything can be dangerous if taken in too big a dose, including water. It's a drug, which I think you have to be very careful with. You disagree? It can be very dangerous to allow the general public to obtain drugs from god knows where and dose themselves. What dose? How often? Why? (because it doesn't work)

Did you see the link to the man who was poisoned by Invermectin?

Knittings a very calming hobby. Maybe you should take it up and spend less time looking at dodgy websites for misinformation.

And less of the "hun" please. I'm not anyone's hun, least of all yours.

IncredulousOne · 24/09/2021 10:14

[quote ollyollyoxenfree]@IncredulousOne

and to simply try to shut down all such discussion as conspiracy theories or horse dewormer has the opposite effect to the one you are intending.

Hmm at no point have I done either of these things - I've pointed out when you're posting misinformation (when not deleted by MNHQ). I've repeatedly brought the discussion back to the actual scientific evidence surrounding ivermectin.

You seem to have multiple posting strategies.

A couple of posts ago you were banging on about 65 studies on the fraudulent ivnmeta website, ignoring all comments about the issues surrounding the site. You then tried to promote a poor quality narrative review as evidence of effect and stated people should be receiving guidance on how to take it.

Re your last post where it's like you've had a personality transplant: the study is low risk of bias and is a reasonable quality. However, as the authors state themselves, it is not robust evidence of effect. This is particularly relevant when contrasted against the two large, better quality RCTs which have shown a null effect.[/quote]
Maybe not you (I'm not going to go back over all the posts to find out who said what, when), but others have tried to shut down debate in this way.

The change in tone is probably because we have (finally) got the discussion round to actual scientific evidence of specific papers.

FWIW, simply dismissing the ivnmeta as a "fraudulent website" is not a scientific debate about the merits of the data contained therein - you can say that their statistical analysis is faulty, but at the least I would expect you to back this up with a proper justification (if you're an epidemiologist, this should be a straightforward explanation).

I note that you have accused the ivnmeta site of "cherry-picking data". That may or may not be the case, I haven't read all the papers. (For balance, I would point out that I have heard similar criticisms of the Cochrane review that concluded there wasn't sufficient evidence to recommend its use). But anyway, surely cherry-picking data is kind of the point? i.e.

If you are trying to prove that something is an effective treatment, you try lots of stuff (e.g. different dosing regimes, different stages of illness, using it with different adjuvants, etc) and some of it will work and some of it won't. Conversely, the fact that it doesn't work for each and every permutation is not evidence that it doesn't work at all.

(Incidentally, this is why I think that people trying to get off-label prescriptions for ivermectin are probably wasting their time - the chances of someone at home stumbling across the right combination of dosage, adjuvant etc is probably pretty small).

I don't want to re-ignite the earlier argument, but the issue I had with your statement ("no robust evidence for ivermectin") was the sweeping generality presented as settled fact. IMO, there is lots of evidence of a positive effect (not a magic cure, but even the study you quoted showed a positive effect - not a null effect). Taken in isolation, these effects might not be robust (hence the conclusions of individual papers, the cautious wording of which is typical in life science publications) but when dozens of papers report measurable positive effects then the overall body of evidence becomes robust. You can say that you think the overall balance of evidence is that there isn't a significant benefit, but to say make sweeping statement that there is no evidence is not IMO a balanced statement.

Here is another review of the evidence which I think presents a fairly balanced overall picture:

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7521351/

They note promising results from multiple studies, but also note that the benefits are still under review and that there is no current definitive answer. It would be easy to cherry pick sentences from this paper to support either a pro- or an anti-ivermectin argument, but reality is more nuanced than that.

MissConductUS · 24/09/2021 11:14

Nobody wants to believe or entertain the thought that the risk of being vaxxed is HIGHER than getting the virus. And so it isn't be discussed.

No one wants to believe it because after hundreds of millions of people have been vaccinated with only a tiny number of adverse events and millions of people have died from covid, we know that the virus is far riskier.

ollyollyoxenfree · 24/09/2021 13:36

@IncredulousOne

Here is another review of the evidence which I think presents a fairly balanced overall picture www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7521351/

No it does not. In evidence based medicine, a "balanced overall picture" is a good quality systematic review and meta-analysis.

This will assess all outcomes from all identified studies (not just cherry picking a la the website you keep linking -IVNMETA), and the inclusion of appropriate tests including ROB assessments (such as ROBIS for RCTs, Ottawa-Newcastle for observational studies), meta-regression, and funnel plots.

What you have linked, is an old "letter to the editor" which has picked out a couple of studies and is discussing them, and hypothesises how ivermectin could work. It's entirely a) inappropriate to the research question at hand and b) and doesn't include the good quality evidence we now have from well designed RCTs (which includes the one you linked above Hmm)

It's tricky to engage with you in this when you don't understand epidemiological evidence synthesis. When the ivermectin literature is assessed in the way I have described above - there is no robust evidence for efficacy

You say you "take issue" with this statement but I think it's because you don't understand it. It means we do not have good quality evidence to justify the use of ivermectin outside of clinical trials. This is a fact, and is why well designed trials are currently underway. As I have (repeatedly) said, two of them have now produced null results, and therefore the overall picture does not look promising.

ollyollyoxenfree · 24/09/2021 13:55

FWIW, simply dismissing the ivnmeta as a "fraudulent website" is not a scientific debate about the merits of the data contained therein - you can say that their statistical analysis is faulty, but at the least I would expect you to back this up with a proper justification (if you're an epidemiologist, this should be a straightforward explanation).

I've already posted several times about why IVNMETA is fraudulent nonsense, but here we are again. The key issue is that it has taken all the studies it can find, combed through them and picked out outcomes that show a positive effect. Anything not showing an effect has been excluded. So for example, one study tested 8 outcomes and found no effect for 7 - these were ignored but the one positive finding popped into the meta-analysis.

It doesn't utilise any of the methods described above, which form the basis of a robust systematic review and meta-analysis.

There's a lot more though...

  • it contains errors and misunderstanding that I would expect an undergraduate to avoid. These include how a p-value is derived and interpreted, the definition of heterogeneity (and the implication that heterogeneity would be pushing results towards the null), alongside many others.
-it's just taken a bunch of studies (many which look at multiple outcomes) and arbitrarily picked multiple outcomes that show an effect and combined them together in the same model. There are so many issues in this I don't know where to begin to be frank. -there is absolutely no quality control on included studies, and when you dig into it, many of those included are themselves fraudulent or have been retracted.
  • when conducting a meta-analysis, as I described above - there must be some ROB assessment, then you can understand if you are seeing a trend that biased studies are producing positive findings. And yup, this is exactly what you see with ivermectin.
IncredulousOne · 24/09/2021 14:14

I take issue with the statement because you have made a sweeping generalisation and presented it as a fact.

If you have initially said - "we don't yet have sufficient evidence to justify the approval of ivermectin as a treatment for Covid" then I would probably be inclined to agree with you (although I am more optimistic on the overall picture). You keep referring to these "two well-designed RCT's", but the only one you have given a link for one. (And I would note that whilst you claimed that it showed a null benefit, it actually showed modest positive effect as I highlighted in my earlier reply).

But you didn't say that. You said "there is no robust evidence for ivermectin". Now we can quibble about the definition of "robust" (you seem to now be implying that this equates very specific set of epidemiological criteria), but you did not making the initial comment in a scientific dialogue, you were using it in a conversation where it was being described as "horse dewormer").

Thus, to anyone reading your comments in the context of the thread would understand this to be saying that there was no evidence apart from shit studies and the rantings of conspiracy theorists. That is patently untrue - there are plenty of (high quality) studies which show positive effects (don't look at the interpretation given by the ivnmeta website - go and look at the studies!). These studies are evidence. There is also evidence (which may or may not be sh!t) that shows no effect (and some which shows a negative effect). When we weigh all the evidence for and against, then we get a verdict. But to suggest there is no evidence for a positive effect is patently untrue.

IncredulousOne · 24/09/2021 14:22

"So for example, one study tested 8 outcomes and found no effect for 7 - these were ignored but the one positive finding popped into the meta-analysis."

So the study found no effect for 7 outcomes and a positive effect in one outcome? Does that not sound to you like evidence of a positive effect?

As I said before, just because a treatment doesn't work in every dosage, or at every stage of the disease, or with/without certain adjuvants, or even if it does not show a benefit against all measures of success, that does not mean that it "doesn't work" or that there is no evidence of efficacy.

By way of a simplified example: if I could magic up a drug that had zero effect upon viral load, severity of symptoms, and duration of hospital stay, but reduced your chance of dying by 50%, then it has only succeeded on 1 out of 4 criteria - but it would still be a valuable tool in the fight against the disease.

ollyollyoxenfree · 24/09/2021 14:47

@IncredulousOne

I take issue with the statement because you have made a sweeping generalisation and presented it as a fact.

If you have initially said - "we don't yet have sufficient evidence to justify the approval of ivermectin as a treatment for Covid" then I would probably be inclined to agree with you (although I am more optimistic on the overall picture). You keep referring to these "two well-designed RCT's", but the only one you have given a link for one. (And I would note that whilst you claimed that it showed a null benefit, it actually showed modest positive effect as I highlighted in my earlier reply).

But you didn't say that. You said "there is no robust evidence for ivermectin". Now we can quibble about the definition of "robust" (you seem to now be implying that this equates very specific set of epidemiological criteria), but you did not making the initial comment in a scientific dialogue, you were using it in a conversation where it was being described as "horse dewormer").

Thus, to anyone reading your comments in the context of the thread would understand this to be saying that there was no evidence apart from shit studies and the rantings of conspiracy theorists. That is patently untrue - there are plenty of (high quality) studies which show positive effects (don't look at the interpretation given by the ivnmeta website - go and look at the studies!). These studies are evidence. There is also evidence (which may or may not be sh!t) that shows no effect (and some which shows a negative effect). When we weigh all the evidence for and against, then we get a verdict. But to suggest there is no evidence for a positive effect is patently untrue.

Dear god, I'm losing the will to live.

It's tricky to engage with you in this when you don't understand epidemiological evidence synthesis. When the ivermectin literature is assessed in the way I have described above - there is no robust evidence for efficacy

You say you "take issue" with this statement but I think it's because you don't understand it. It means we do not have good quality evidence to justify the use of ivermectin outside of clinical trials. This is a fact, and is why well designed trials are currently underway. As I have (repeatedly) said, two of them have now produced null results, and therefore the overall picture does not look promising.

ollyollyoxenfree · 24/09/2021 14:52

@IncredulousOne

"So for example, one study tested 8 outcomes and found no effect for 7 - these were ignored but the one positive finding popped into the meta-analysis."

So the study found no effect for 7 outcomes and a positive effect in one outcome? Does that not sound to you like evidence of a positive effect?

As I said before, just because a treatment doesn't work in every dosage, or at every stage of the disease, or with/without certain adjuvants, or even if it does not show a benefit against all measures of success, that does not mean that it "doesn't work" or that there is no evidence of efficacy.

By way of a simplified example: if I could magic up a drug that had zero effect upon viral load, severity of symptoms, and duration of hospital stay, but reduced your chance of dying by 50%, then it has only succeeded on 1 out of 4 criteria - but it would still be a valuable tool in the fight against the disease.

And with this, you've just demonstrated you don't understand the basis of evidence based medicine or statistics.

Doing 100s of tests, picking out the results that show a positive effect and combining them into one bizarre model, and ignoring the ones that don't is not robust evidence synthesis. I have explained this above in a huge amount of detail.

Incidentally, the null outcomes were things like viral load, fever, cough and some others, which IVNMETA carefully ignored despite the fact that they are clearly clinically relevant. The positive finding (which given the amount of tests, is likely to be spurious), was nausea.

ollyollyoxenfree · 24/09/2021 15:01

I also find it pretty telling that people like yourself, who are so convinced ivermectin is an effective treatment and is being deliberately supressed by some unknown body, are unable to give an explanation as to why this is the case @IncredulousOne