@ICECream821
They need to keep kids in school and close contacts do daily LFTs. With vaccine rates high and low hospital admissions they really need to push to the end of term.
I’m so fecking pissed off with the PM and Gavin Williamson - hopeless bunch absolutely hopeless - all the pressure is on the LAs
LFTs have a false negative rate, in the best case, of 50% (ie those who have Covid and would test positive on PCR would only come out positive on LFTs half the time).
Early in an infection, or in a case that will be asymptomatic throughout, that false negative rate is much higher - in fact it is thought that some asymptomatic cases would NEVER test positive on LFTs despite it being known that they can still spread the disease.
In a class of 30 in a primary school, say case 1 actually infects 4 children (a conservative estimate, given that i think the estimated infectivity rate for Delta is over 6). 2 of these, at best, may test positive on LFTs on Day 1. The undetected 2 can then infect 4 more each, so you now have 10 infected children in school. 5 of these will test positive - if we are REALLY lucky, the original 2 will have higher viral loads so they may now test positive, so let's be really optimistic and say 6 test positive - both the original 2, plus half of the new cases.
4 are left in school - remember that school is a ovid-unsafe environment, and these chidlren spend 6 hours a day in close proximity, sharing the same space and oten physically ouching one another when seated due to space constraints.
They infect 16 more (4 each), of which in the most optimistic case, 8 will be detected...
You can see how this goes. If LFTs had a tiny false negative rate, then they would be really good in this scenario ... but sadly they don't, having a HUGE false negative rate, especially early in an infection which is when you most need it to be accurate in order to nip infections in the bud.
The MHRA declared the original DfE plan to test instead of isolating far too dagerous to consider, and there are no new tests and little new evidence to change that position. There have been trials running, through a period of low community infection, but that is not the scenario we are now in.