To expect to be back in lockdown in November

[Ohmydaisy]

Hi.... my daughter is getting married in November, I've told her to expect the 'no more than 30 ' restrictions to be in place. But I'm secretly hoping all will be normal again. So my question is aibu to advise to only plan for 30 ?(inbu) Or am I being over cautious?.... in which case I am being unreasonable . What do you all really think will be like come November? I'm also thinking it's flu season then and they my tighten restrictions to protect the hospitals from being overwhelmed. Xxx

@Mamascoven

I work for NHS and can tell you we are definitely expecting another wave this autumn going into winter. Allready planning where the wards will be. As for restrictions I genuinely dont have a clue what will happen.

Absolute tosh.

Does working for the NHS mean you can predict the future?

Planning for, good practice. Expecting like you have some sort of insider knowledge is scare mongering nonsense.

I don't know why we bother with scientists and their years of training and experience who admit that they don't know how long immunity lasts when we have these clever Mumsnetters who can confidently state that immunity falls off within months.

@mamascoven thanks for the bit of inside info xxx
I've never read a 'covid' thread and didn't mean to upset people. I didn't realise I was shaking a wasps nest. I'm sorry xxx 😞

Of course the NHS are planning for another wave - dealing with COVID will I think become something we have to deal with and having separate wards is of course paramount because mixing is the worst possible outcome.

OP as it happens weddings are looking to be something for now that are actually exempted. I suspect that in 4 weeks nightclubs will open and we will for now be left with masks and the idea of personal risk

@thecatsatonthewall We have in a good year 600 annual deaths from flu. In a bad year when the flu vaccine does not work we have over 20,000 deaths, with no restrictions or lockdowns in place. With covid 19 we have had 150,000 deaths without a vaccine for some of that time and with lockdowns. Covid 19 is much more deadly than flu.
If covid 19 was allowed to rip through society every year unchecked, life expectancy would be reduced. And various countries would never allow us entry without quarantine.

[quote socialmediamishap]**@NannyAndJohn* @SonnetForSpring*

You are the most pessimistic gloom lovers I’ve come across on here. If you are CONVINCED we will have a lockdown from mid July until 20222 then why don’t you go out and actually enjoy yourself now?! Instead of sleuthing every covid thread on MN all day, every day.

Oh sorry, what’s that? You don’t have any social invitations…. Can’t imagine why.[/quote]
This with bells on!

@IloveSooty424

All the modelling suggests that things are not looking good. My question would be to the PM later today is what happens after 4 weeks? The modelling just presented on BBC News suggest we’ll have 15,000 cases a day by the 21st June. What will that number be in four week time? Will this translate into people being admitted to hospital? I don’t know. What I do know is that a lot of this could have been avoided if the government had stopped flights from India and elsewhere, by being proactive rather than reactive.

I don’t want another lockdown in the autumn or winter. I live in dread of schools closing again. Johnson and his cronies will do everything they can to avoid this, pushing us cases to the point where they’ll have no choice. They never, ever learn.

Daily new cases are doubling about every 9 days nationally.

So if you take yesterday's number of daily new cases (7490)! and double it four times you get 119,840 daily cases in 36 days time. (If doubling continues at the same rate.)

Hospitalisations are expected to be lower because of the vaccines - so if 2.5% of those cases go to hospital that's daily admissions of 2996.

I won’t comply if we do. I’m not being told I can’t have family in my house again. Never again

Which means they will have to close more things to reduce transmission overall.

@amicissimma

I don't know why we bother with scientists and their years of training and experience who admit that they don't know how long immunity lasts when we have these clever Mumsnetters who can confidently state that immunity falls off within months.

A paper in the Lancet last week found spacing doses of the Pfizer jab beyond the manufacturer’s three-week recommendation causes immunity to tail off faster than it otherwise would.

[quote Ohmydaisy]@mamascoven thanks for the bit of inside info xxx
I've never read a 'covid' thread and didn't mean to upset people. I didn't realise I was shaking a wasps nest. I'm sorry xxx 😞[/quote]
You have nothing to apologise for.

Which means they will have to close more things to reduce transmission overall.

If that happens, ultimately these things will shift to operate black market. That’s what happened where I am in the last lockdown.

@Roonerspismed

I won’t comply if we do. I’m not being told I can’t have family in my house again. Never again

Same here. I can't do much about shops etc being closed, but I will not isolate myself again.

Many sympathies on the complexity and expense of the current situaiton.

I think if my daughter wanted to get married I would suggest a very small, intimate family wedding organised in the weeks ahead with plans sketched in for a celebration later, maybe a first anniversary or big Christening party.

Boris' surprise wedding was a subtle hint that there may be problems with family bashes in the near future.

I also would be very wary of planning anything that involved expensive venue hire - presumably wedding insurance to cover covid difficulties is hard to come by?

Small romantic summer weddings could be really beautiful cf whichever Princess it was?

Hope it goes well whatever.

The problem with simply doubling it nationally is that it doesnt quite work like that in real life. It is simple maths which would work if the case rates were uniform everywhere but they simply arent.

It can give us an idea of where we might be but that is all it does. Areas are growing at different rates - Bolton and Kingston seem to have plateaued and are falling. Glasgow has now been overtaken by Edinburgh. its not quite as simple as being able to say that is where we are going to be

@esterwin

Which means they will have to close more things to reduce transmission overall.

Well they don't have to..

They could suppress the virus through basic infection control measures and a functional test trace and isolate system plus effective border quarantine.

But they won't, so yeah. More restrictions are coming. So much for "cautious and irreversible" huh?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2280607-zero-covid-countries-have-done-best-and-its-not-too-late-to-switch/amp/?twitterrimpression=true

@daseychain

It's not predicting the future its science if you have heard of that. Ive seen everything first hand, all you've seen is the news and facebook no doubt. Carry on living in your little bubble & good luck with that. Roll on autumn.

@herecomesthsun

“ Boris' surprise wedding was a subtle hint that there may be problems with family bashes in the near future.”

Do you know them personally? It was to avoid angering a lot of couples if they were to have a big celebration so soon after him limiting the plans of others for the past 14 months!

Roll on autumn

That's quite sinister. Why do you want it to 'roll on' autumn? So you can be proven right?

[quote esterwin]@thecatsatonthewall We have in a good year 600 annual deaths from flu. In a bad year when the flu vaccine does not work we have over 20,000 deaths, with no restrictions or lockdowns in place. With covid 19 we have had 150,000 deaths without a vaccine for some of that time and with lockdowns. Covid 19 is much more deadly than flu.
If covid 19 was allowed to rip through society every year unchecked, life expectancy would be reduced. And various countries would never allow us entry without quarantine.[/quote]
We have vaccines now that appear to work well, they won't protect everyone but surely it is not possible to carry on like this?

As i said, CV vaccines are in their early stages of development, new ones will be better still and easier to administer.

We have borrowed (mostly from the BOE) over 355 billion to fight CV, that is unsustainable.

[quote socialmediamishap]@herecomesthsun

“ Boris' surprise wedding was a subtle hint that there may be problems with family bashes in the near future.”

Do you know them personally? It was to avoid angering a lot of couples if they were to have a big celebration so soon after him limiting the plans of others for the past 14 months![/quote]

1. Do I know them? Random or what?

1. who knows the exact motivation but certainly they would have thought through the PR implications - something complicated seemed to be going on with invites and different bashes in different years.

Boris was perhaps simultaneously channelling "business as usual" in his everyday suit and tie while showing that he can still charm a fetching young woman in a white peasanty summer dress, floral headwreath and bare feet. Alpha male or what.

Very interesting in all sorts of ways.

@lughnasadh

The hospitals aren't going to be overwhelmed, pretty much all adults will be vaccinated by the end of summer.

I can't see any national restrictions being in place after that.

I agree. Once all adults have had the opportunity of both vaccine doses, we really need to end all the restrictions and get on with things again.

Those who refuse the vaccines or those who have medical conditions meaning either they can't have the vaccine or it's not effective, will have to take other measures to protect themselves, if they wish, or take the risks.

(Of course, if it turns out the vaccines aren't effective, say to a new variant, then that may not be possible and we may end up with restrictions again until a new/updated vaccine or booster, but let's hope that doesn't happen).

[quote esterwin]@thecatsatonthewall We have in a good year 600 annual deaths from flu. In a bad year when the flu vaccine does not work we have over 20,000 deaths, with no restrictions or lockdowns in place. With covid 19 we have had 150,000 deaths without a vaccine for some of that time and with lockdowns. Covid 19 is much more deadly than flu.
If covid 19 was allowed to rip through society every year unchecked, life expectancy would be reduced. And various countries would never allow us entry without quarantine.[/quote]
But, the country can't afford to have restrictions/lockdowns every year. You can't keep "stop/starting" businesses. You can't keep sending school children home to learn. You can't keep Uni students trapped in their Uni flats doing nothing but online learning. The country can't afford furlough every year, it can't afford giving support grants every year to businesses/industries forced to close.

We have to strike a balance whereby life continues pretty much as normal, with support for the minority who are at highest risk to shield if they wish.

(Of course, if it turns out the vaccines aren't effective, say to a new variant, then that may not be possible and we may end up with restrictions again until a new/updated vaccine or booster, but let's hope that doesn't happen)

Good idea and why it won't happen, the Government has said we will never go back, which means they have to be super cautious.

They have painted themselves into a corner.

Boris wedding is all about Carrie at the G7 summit and wanting to be married