To expect to be back in lockdown in November

[Ohmydaisy]

Hi.... my daughter is getting married in November, I've told her to expect the 'no more than 30 ' restrictions to be in place. But I'm secretly hoping all will be normal again. So my question is aibu to advise to only plan for 30 ?(inbu) Or am I being over cautious?.... in which case I am being unreasonable . What do you all really think will be like come November? I'm also thinking it's flu season then and they my tighten restrictions to protect the hospitals from being overwhelmed. Xxx

Why do you not see the irony that you are all posting too! Haha

Lovely to see the doom and gloom squad out in force on this thread. They'll soon be infiltrating Style & Beauty and The Litter Tray threads just to ensure that the whole world of Mumsnet can share in their misery.

@SonnetForSpring sorry, but what is wrong with you that you think it’s acceptable to call people pathetic for wanting to believe this isn’t going to all end in utter disaster? It’s not making you look good.
You post on nearly every single thread I click on, telling people that things are going to be terrible. That’s not the same as posters like me occasionally getting fed up with reading it.

Christ I wish there was the option to block some people on here. Is there??

I work for NHS and can tell you we are definitely expecting another wave this autumn going into winter. Allready planning where the wards will be. As for restrictions I genuinely dont have a clue what will happen.

It's a public forum! The clue is in the name- public! It is designed to encourage a range of views. If you don't like them, may I suggest, you don't read my posts. Seriously, it's a free world. The irony again. You want freedom but you only want people who agree with you to share their views. Ridiculous.

[quote showerbeer]@socialmediamishap honestly. Anyone would think they’re gagging for another lockdown - I’m sure they’re not but it certainly comes across that way!
I feel fair play to be cautious and want to delay opening fully, that’s one thing - but they make this board essentially unusable because they’re on nearly every single thread saying the same shit every time. Highly annoying. It’s not a balanced input because there’s NEVER anything but the worst case scenario.[/quote]
The best case scenario is that the government reintroduces low level restrictions NOW to keep Delta at bay while we try and reach the herd immunity threshold. Then we'll be able to start getting back to normal.

But Johnson, as always, has his head in the sand. So instead of looking forward to reopening, we'll be going back into lockdown.

You just need the self control to not read my posts. Simple.

@SonnetForSpring - I have never posted anything about the 21st - why get so angry and vitriolic on a MN thread?

I would try to not read your posts, but they’re on every bloody thread!

@Arrowheart

Lovely to see the doom and gloom squad out in force on this thread. They'll soon be infiltrating Style & Beauty and The Litter Tray threads just to ensure that the whole world of Mumsnet can share in their misery.

🤣😂✌🏼

Dementors unite! 🛡

The only way to avoid perpetual lockdowns is to go for elimination. We haven't even got co2 monitors in schools...

Again though how would those restrictions work and the longer term implications thereof. Surakarta has already confirmed the scaling back of furlough

And I agree there is a worst case scenario but it is only one possibility

Bolton seems to be going the right way surge testing and vaccines are working

@SonnetForSpring you do realise in our so called civilised society, people DO die in horrendous ways. Even when the NHS tries to save them but makes their lives worse. How about a stroke victim, a very very common cause of eventual death but not before being locked into your own body with no way to communicate or move. Day after day of being spoon fed, unable to cry out for help, abandoned on the wards, zero dignity. I'd say that's pretty horrific and certainly not civilised but it happens A LOT.

I think we should be doing fine in November. Some winter restrictions like wearing masks on public transport perhaps.

Saying that though I have to admit I wouldn't like to arrange a costly wedding or other event this year. However I am naturally super controlling of these things. So would want to make sure there was no chance of even a small alteration to my plans.

I’ve seen this a million time. When some of us were posting about Covid coming to the UK we were ridiculed. Then we posted about lockdowns and food shortages - again we were mocked. Ditto with schools closing. Every lockdown I, and many posters on here, have predicted. The figures don’t lie. We are not at herd immunity. If we open up numbers will increase so much that the a percentage of unvaccinated/weak vaccinated will be a huge number in hospitals. Look at the statistics. We will have another wave resulting in a complete lockdown if we don’t, not only delay opening up, but backtrack on some freedoms.

[quote bellamountain]@SonnetForSpring you do realise in our so called civilised society, people DO die in horrendous ways. Even when the NHS tries to save them but makes their lives worse. How about a stroke victim, a very very common cause of eventual death but not before being locked into your own body with no way to communicate or move. Day after day of being spoon fed, unable to cry out for help, abandoned on the wards, zero dignity. I'd say that's pretty horrific and certainly not civilised but it happens A LOT.[/quote]
Loads of people recover from strokes.

Pps asking about vaccine protection duration:

www.verywellhealth.com/length-of-covid-19-vaccine-immunity-5094857

Just one quick Google suggests what we all know but don't really want to know...that noone knows, because it's not been in the real world (or even a lab) for long enough for us to know.

But there's no reason to think it won't be like the flu. With the flu, we are vaccinated against the strain expected to be most of a pita the following year. I see no reason to think this will be any different, we are already seeing all the variants and some will eventually be thrown up which the current jab can't cope with.

Remember the very first people were vaccinated last December. However long the immunity lasts for, it'll be dropping off as time goes by. The nurses who vaccinated me were discussing autumn boosters - can't tell more as don't know more.

Whilst I don't for one minute think everyone will need to be jabbed again, I do think they'll want to do the vulnerable again this autumn/winter, and I can't see an efficient programme for that being set up soon - it takes time and money and logistics to create a smooth system.

So my theory of spring/summer is based on gvt being cautious in case of a surge in the vulnerable over this autumn/winter (but not going as far as lock downs, just current restrictions reinstated under some new name) but then relaxing again with having had more time to have got people re-vaccinated and with the better weather in spring/summer 2022.

These are just my thoughts. I do not pretend to be any kind of expert. I hope I'm wrong and once all restrictions are lifted that will it for good.

I just don't think we're there yet though.

Given that our government usually does too little too late after implementing insane ideas that only make things worse, followed by a lockdown of several months - the odds of being in full lockdown in November are high, I would say.

We already know the SAGE advice is going to be bad news tomorrow based on the massive bullshit cherry-picking campaign thats gone into high gear this week, to discredit SAGE - and modelling in particular.

We don't need to have another wave, third wave, exit wave, or any of it in summer OR winter.

But we will, because our government will not do what is necessary to prevent one.

(And I expect this one to be harder on the NHS than the previous waves.)

YANBU.
Another lockdown in the autumn is expected.

Those calling lockdowns a certainty do you realise that another one would well and truly fuck us for good?

If you’ve vaccinated that majority of the population and still have to lockdown then vaccine confidence would plummet and no one would want the ‘boosters’.

@Thewiseoneincognito why would a wave with most people (except the wise ones like you) are vaccinated be HARDER on the NHS than previous waves…?!

Lockdown isnt inevitable though - it is just one possible outcome.

Like it or not I think the more likely outcome is an exit wave that balances out restrictions with increased hospitalisations alongside surge testing and vaccinations

And for those who are saying (again as I have said rather flippantly) get what that will actually mean. Its not just a simple matter now of locking down to stop it - there is little money, very little appetite (save for a small group) and the longer term implications of it mean that the balance I think it moving in favour of a management

Kingston where I am dropped last week after surge testing, as did Bolton. It isnt inevitable to have a lockdown (although as I said not entirely impossible either(

I'd be prepared for some restrictions in place this autumn/winter - limited but still there, not so much as last year though and not 'full lockdown'. At one point I've heard the argument that we cannot now overwhelm the NHS with covid patients while they try to catch up with the waiting lists that piled up.

[quote Katie517]@Quartz2208 spot on, the flippant way people say “oh it will be a full lockdown by then” annoys the shit out of me. It’s not a default option for every time the bloody NhS gets a bit busy. It’s peoples lives, it’s children’s childhoods, it’s the economy, it’s financial security, it’s living not existing. Lockdowns cannot continue to be an option they need to be taken off the table never to be used again![/quote]
Precisely that!

All the modelling suggests that things are not looking good. My question would be to the PM later today is what happens after 4 weeks? The modelling just presented on BBC News suggest we’ll have 15,000 cases a day by the 21st June. What will that number be in four week time? Will this translate into people being admitted to hospital? I don’t know. What I do know is that a lot of this could have been avoided if the government had stopped flights from India and elsewhere, by being proactive rather than reactive.

I don’t want another lockdown in the autumn or winter. I live in dread of schools closing again. Johnson and his cronies will do everything they can to avoid this, pushing us cases to the point where they’ll have no choice. They never, ever learn.

Vaccines (probably) don't offer long term protection nor are they 100% effective but their biggest draw back is the the time it takes to vaccinate everyone.
Even with a single shot vaccine, it takes months to do everyone above 50.
We can't keep locking down for evermore, so the likely outcome is to accept 1000s of deaths (as we do with flu and pneumonia) and fund the NHS to be able to cope better with increased admissions.

Vaccines will improve and the hope would be a version that is oral and offers life time protection.

Can easily see another LD this winter as the NHS can't cope even with tiny increases in cases.