Data, Stats Thread June 11

[PatriciaHolm]

UK govt pressers Slides & data

www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history

Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Firefliess
agree entirely. I'm not worried particularly about getting covid especially as I am double vaxxed but am extremely worried about the kids (repeatedly) having to self isolate for 10 days. We've been very lucky so far but in the NW and it's happening in all neighbouring schools, right now. Government is apparently either oblivious or doesn't care.

The other issue is surely with high case numbers, regardless of deaths and hospitalisations, there is a much greater risk of it mutating into yet another variant. Alpha, beta, gamma and delta variants have all been more transmissable and more serious than the previous. What the heck will happen with the next variant? (Epsilon - just had to google!)

@Firefliess

I think the interesting thing about the third wave is that the number of cases required to get hospital admissions up to high levels is going to be very much higher than we've ever seen before - because they'll be mainly in the young, and because vaccines help reduce the severity of Covid. But I've seen very little discussion about how these high case rates will affect things - everyone seems entirely focused on hospital admissions, but case rates in schools that are 10 fold higher than present are going to lead to massive disruption for children and parents. Also in workplaces they'll be huge numbers off because they've been in contact with a Covid case, as even vaccinated people have to isolate for 10 days every time. And more social mixing will mean everyone has more contacts. By focusing only on hospital admissions and deaths I think we're failing to think about the impact these high case rates are going to have - staff shortages (including in the NHS), holidays cancelled, schools closed. There has been no talk about these and no changes planned for the 10 day isolations for all contacts. I'd like to at least see the projected case rates by age group that the modellers are expecting, and some analysis of what that'll mean for the education sector in particular.

I suspect the need to isolate when in contact with a covid positive person will end, however it is likely to be replaced by daily testing instead. With trials currently on-going, I think that is where we are headed for schools and workplaces.

Agree it is completely unconscionable to open up everything, vaccinate all adults, yet still expect children to be sent home for isolation. It clearly cannot continue like that.

@Firefliess

I think the interesting thing about the third wave is that the number of cases required to get hospital admissions up to high levels is going to be very much higher than we've ever seen before - because they'll be mainly in the young, and because vaccines help reduce the severity of Covid. But I've seen very little discussion about how these high case rates will affect things - everyone seems entirely focused on hospital admissions, but case rates in schools that are 10 fold higher than present are going to lead to massive disruption for children and parents. Also in workplaces they'll be huge numbers off because they've been in contact with a Covid case, as even vaccinated people have to isolate for 10 days every time. And more social mixing will mean everyone has more contacts. By focusing only on hospital admissions and deaths I think we're failing to think about the impact these high case rates are going to have - staff shortages (including in the NHS), holidays cancelled, schools closed. There has been no talk about these and no changes planned for the 10 day isolations for all contacts. I'd like to at least see the projected case rates by age group that the modellers are expecting, and some analysis of what that'll mean for the education sector in particular.

I completely agree that we should be focusing on cases.

The more cases, the more people (including children) will get Long Covid.

The more cases, the greater chance of a more dangerous Variant emerging.

We need to keep cases as low as possible.

Agree it is completely unconscionable to open up everything, vaccinate all adults, yet still expect children to be sent home for isolation. It clearly cannot continue like that.

Absolutely. One positive and half our school are home from today for ten days. Instructions even to not go outside, some don’t have gardens. Too much on children to continue with this.

The more cases, the more people (including children) will get Long Covid.

Exclusive: Long Covid has minimal impact on children, studies show

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/29/exclusive-long-covid-has-minimal-impact-children-studies-show/

@Firefliess
Very good point. The problem is the narrative from all mass comm sources. Freedom day / end restrictions! / get back to normal / ......
setting unrealistic expectations and then locking themselves in for no good reason, but positive PR (that will backfire, but hey, let's not think about that)

What is not being taken into consideration (adding to your list):

• 100.000s of kids going into exam year next year who have had 1,5 yrs of disruptions and more problematic is that in their main exam year still have disruptions. This has long rippling effects that are not mentioned almost ever.
• with case numbers up long-covid cases will go up. So when this is over (or not at peak) and NHS should function as normal it will have as of now about a mil. plus patients. The NHS was kneeling with an additional 400k patients in 1 year. How will it cope?
• Industries that are at a standstill will suffer even more. Furlough is to end sept, but if there are still disruptions how will they get back on their feet? Should we just accept that half of them will die off? Great, that employment levels are up now, but there will be a surge of unemployed this autumn. That will put a strain on the treasury. And any treasuries goto solutions: cut benefits + raise taxes

and these are without thinking about it for more than a minute.
Any sane person should see that keeping case numbers down should be a main goal. ...

And when it could be done with way less drastic ongoing measures why do we opt for self inflicted harm of letting it rip and then after the last minute lock down? makes no sense.....

But I keep with my sentiment as of yesterday: we might have caught a break and numbers might be starting to stabilize. Let's see how today and the next few weeks go.

[quote EasterIssland]The more cases, the more people (including children) will get Long Covid.

Exclusive: Long Covid has minimal impact on children, studies show

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/29/exclusive-long-covid-has-minimal-impact-children-studies-show/[/quote]
Could you copy the study they are referring to? subscription wall

@Firefliess

I think the interesting thing about the third wave is that the number of cases required to get hospital admissions up to high levels is going to be very much higher than we've ever seen before - because they'll be mainly in the young, and because vaccines help reduce the severity of Covid. But I've seen very little discussion about how these high case rates will affect things - everyone seems entirely focused on hospital admissions, but case rates in schools that are 10 fold higher than present are going to lead to massive disruption for children and parents. Also in workplaces they'll be huge numbers off because they've been in contact with a Covid case, as even vaccinated people have to isolate for 10 days every time. And more social mixing will mean everyone has more contacts. By focusing only on hospital admissions and deaths I think we're failing to think about the impact these high case rates are going to have - staff shortages (including in the NHS), holidays cancelled, schools closed. There has been no talk about these and no changes planned for the 10 day isolations for all contacts. I'd like to at least see the projected case rates by age group that the modellers are expecting, and some analysis of what that'll mean for the education sector in particular.

There needs to be a solution to this on that everyone would agree.

But the isolation rules will need to change, I agree with BigWoolly

@thesunisstillshining
do you mind the sun? as that's where I've found it, it refers to the telegraph

www.thescottishsun.co.uk/living/7183393/long-covid-minimal-impact-on-children-study/

I think the isolation rules might change, Gove didn't have to isolate on his return from Portugal after being a close contact, he took tests every day I believe. This was a trial for changing the isolation rules I believe

Replacing isolation with daily testing (and possibly shortening or even removing it for fully vaccinated people) would help a lot with the knock on impact of high case rates. I find it frustrating that this doesn't seem to be being discussed. Even the Twitter modellers only publish graphs with hospitalisations/deaths and now cases, or numbers being told to isolate at any one time.

I have a very sociable 17 year old at home, with a zero hours contact job she'd like to hold on to - am fearful she'll end up with successive isolations over the next few months, and not even a plan yet on when she might be offered a vaccine.

@EasterIssland
I admit I am a news snob, so more than mind :) Bloomsberg, Reuters, cnn are baseline news outlets. Not saying I'm right in my way of thinking, I'm no I'm not.
Have you ever checked how many companies the sun is selling your data to? From all over the world... india, germany, us,....

but for the sake of this discussion I will go and see :)

When I said that the basic point about a third wave seemingly happening without lockdown and what this could mean for hospitalisations/deaths, I wasn’t ignoring the effect of vaccinations! We’re basically waiting to see if vaccinations can outstrip what lockdown can (very imperfectly) achieve.

Firefliss it’s not good at all. My poor yr6 has to stay at home do PCR and still stay at hole if negative.

I had thought with lifting we’d get rule change, I hope so.

Home!

well, the study link is not there.
They keep referring to children as in everyone u18? It would be helpful to know how the study was conducted....

email today from school: covid case in the 5th form. Last week was exam week for which we had to send out kid in. great. I would be furious to have wasted more than a year shielding all for nothing, and for the purpose of doing a test which is meaningless as he had his learning disrupted to astronomical levels by not being in and most of the time no online school either.
well, fingers crossed. He was careful and had a mask on full time. Even though nobody else did :(

I just read someone from Sage saying:
"...Remember the Government risks are not the same as individual personal risks. My kind of risks are about whether or not I get ill or whether or not I die..."
(Graham MEdley)

We’re basically waiting to see if vaccinations can outstrip what lockdown can (very imperfectly) achieve

There's no realistic way that vaccination can stop spread in the under 12's, just like very high levels of chickenpox immunity in the over 12's don't stop it.

@sirfredfredgeorge

We’re basically waiting to see if vaccinations can outstrip what lockdown can (very imperfectly) achieve

There's no realistic way that vaccination can stop spread in the under 12's, just like very high levels of chickenpox immunity in the over 12's don't stop it.

I agree @sirfred. If we leave the contact isolation rules as they are they'll spend most of the next year out of school and parents losing jobs in order to care for them. But if we were going to relax the rules on isolation for close contacts they ought to have been modelling that in their projections. There's nothing in there to suggest they've looked at the impact of all these cases among the young, or have any plans to mitigate the consequences.

They must have, they just failed to tell everyone "we're going to let it spread". Remember this decision is the same one every other European and American country has chosen (other countries have no choice, or are still postponing the choice it with restrictions like NZ/Aus) so I think they must have, it just makes very little difference to the death numbers in their models?

[quote EasterIssland]@thesunisstillshining
do you mind the sun? as that's where I've found it, it refers to the telegraph

www.thescottishsun.co.uk/living/7183393/long-covid-minimal-impact-on-children-study/[/quote]
So they say that less than 2% of children would have symptoms for more than 8 weeks.

That's a small %.

However, there are 12.7 million kids under 16 in the UK. So that is up to 1/4 million young people having symptoms more than 8 weeks. It's how you present the data isn't it? A small % of a huge number is a big number.

"NHS figures show that 40 under-19s have died from the disease in the country and only eight of those had no underlying health issues" Fine and dandy, that is an argument to vaccinate the ones that have health issues then.

It'll be a bit less than that @herecomesthesun if they get a move on and vaccinate the 12-17s before they all just catch it anyway.

@Firefliess

It'll be a bit less than that *@herecomesthesun* if they get a move on and vaccinate the 12-17s before they all just catch it anyway.

fingers crossed. Vaccinating the ones with known health vulnerabilities would be a start.

@herecomesthsun
I was wondering what their sample was and if this was a real study or just clickbait based on a sample of eg 12.
I don't have time to search for the study, so I'll disregard it as unverified in my eyes for the time being :)

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@herecomesthsun
I was wondering what their sample was and if this was a real study or just clickbait based on a sample of eg 12.
I don't have time to search for the study, so I'll disregard it as unverified in my eyes for the time being :)[/quote]
2500 kids in the study. It says so in the article. Sounds like a real study to me.