Sky news article about delta. Deaths after 2 vaccines

[Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady]

This is the bit that scares me, and makes me think the "end" is no longer in sight.

As of 7 June, there have been 42 deaths in England of people confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of testing positive.

Of these people, 23 were unvaccinated, seven had had their first dose more than 21 days before and 12 had their second dose more than 14 days before.

Unless my maths is way off that means 28% of people who have died with delta variant have had 2 doses of the vaccine.

The vaccines were supposed to be our way out!

I'm not one for scaremongering so im sorry if this post comes across like that but I feel so so down today. I want a light at the end of the tunnel!

Full article:

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-delta-variant-60-more-transmissible-than-alpha-and-more-resistant-to-vaccines-phe-reports-12330068

But that’s a bit of a contradiction.

Proper analysis but just do whether the BMA ask us to

@Malteser71

But that’s a bit of a contradiction.

Proper analysis but just do whether the BMA ask us to

No, do proper analysis and also listen to the BMA because what they are suggesting makes sense.

Pretty consistent actually.

Well I have been double jabbed.
I'm not at deaths door nor old
But a healthcare worker.

And to the pp with a itu consultant DH.
I too work for a huge teaching trust. Largest ITU in Europe and our emergency planning remains the same as it was.
We are now able to know what to do and if we suddenly had a huge influx of patients who needed ITU due to covid.
The plan is there to be used. It remains unchanged and staff are still on standby ( those who don't usually work on ITU)
Things are absolutely not back to normal with no concern.

*an

The thing is, that people trot out "oh but people who died had co-morbidities or were over 50" as if that's all right then, those people's lives don't matter.

Nobody ever says that last part though. People just frequently read that and imagine that's what's being implied (when the reality is most people know / care about someone over 50 even if they don't know other groups).

We only ever seem to jump to this 'as if those people don't matter' conclusion when we're talking about covid.

It's like discussing a new experimental cancer treatment and someone pointing out that of the deaths we still have, 72% are smokers, or obese, or 70+, or anything else that made them previously vulnerable to dying of cancer. Sorry but anyone who claims that discussion equates to their lives not mattering has motivations behind that perception. You are seeing what you want to see. And I'd be 90% confident the people jumping to those conclusions are smokers / obese / 70+.

It's understandable to extent, but all it does is stifle conversation. In the nicest possible way, the entire country cannot revolve around people vulnerable to covid in the same way it has never, and will never, revolve around people vulnerable to suicide, or allergies, or cancer. Or anyone with autism. Or anyone with photosensitive epilepsy. All of these things are unfortunate parts of being human. I am not vulnerable to covid but something else which reduces life expectancy by 12 - 20 years. I can't imagine a scenario where they announced a treatment which worked on a scale of least to most affected (so might not help me), and my response is anything other than 'great news!'. To turn that into whataboutery would not even occur to me.

So we have gone to large lengths to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. We recognise that there are millions of vulnerable people out there, a huge swathe of the population. we locked down 3 times to protect them.

It doesn't make sense to open up without thinking very carefully about what we are doing. Anything else would be pretty stupid in the circumstances.

We need to protect people as much as we can by doubly vaccinating as many people as possible first and also we need to examine the risks very closely.

And it doesn't have to be an all or nothing re-opening.

It's not a question of locking down permanently or opening up in 2 weeks time, it is more subtle than that.

Excellent post, Winched.

You articulated that so beautifully.

Regarding emergency plan.

There is a plan, but have you escalated?

My husbands ITU is nowhere near escalation.

* The thing is, that people trot out "oh but people who died had co-morbidities or were over 50" as if that's all right then, those people's lives don't matter.

Nobody ever says that last part though.

People say "but with co-morbidities" all the fucking time. Never mind that it might be a 28 year old with asthma say, it is still a comorbidity. Your co workers that are a bit overweight (a huge number in the UK) or have high blood pressure - co morbidities.

And then people say that healthy young people aren't adversely affected without realising that BAME individuals, undiagnosed diabetics etc are also the vulnerable. it isn't just 80 year olds permanently on ventilators.

@Malteser71

Excellent post, Winched.

You articulated that so beautifully.

maybe not

@herecomesthsun that wasn't the last part and not what I was referring to. The last part was: as if that's alright then, their lives don't matter.

But @winched - people who that they're not saying the vulnerable don't matter are always always non vulnerable to covid.

The reality is mire than 50% of the UK pop is over fifty and therefore vulnerable to covid. It isn't a minority at all.

@PatriciaHolm

The vast majority of those who were double dosed by early June will be those at greatest risk of death, full stop, not just Covid; it's entirely possible they all passed from something else, such as age, and not Covid. That is the result of vaccinating the most vulnerable in our society first - they don't stop dying at a higher rate than the general population overall, they are just much less likely to do of Covid.

Eventually, pretty much all Covid deaths will be from the vaccinated, as the number of vaccinated increases; the idea is that the overall rate and number of deaths is much much lower than it would be without the vaccines.

Well said

Winched articulates very well, and on other threads too.

so the delta variant means that people aren't all that well protected until they have had their second vaccine dose for ? 2 or 3 weeks.

And if they are vulnerable - over 50, HT, diabetes BAME etc - they may still die from covid (we don't have the exact figures).

Although the vaccines certainly help.

If we are talking very large figures - millions - then even a small fraction of a per cent would be a large number.

The increase in transmissibility means that we could get those very large numbers.

This is what all the discussion is about.

it wouldn't be 12 people over 85 from a nursing home with COPD. it could potentially be a lot of us. A tiny fraction would still be a lot of hospital admissions, a faction of that fraction could still be a significant number of deaths,

it might be that proceeding a bit more slowly could ward that off.

@Malteser71

Winched articulates very well, and on other threads too.

in the nicest possible way, he or she missed the point here

@winched - you've got the job on SAGE comms - great post.

This guy who's been pretty much on the money is saying we need to re-open and expect around 7k deaths as a result. Much less than a bad flu season and if we don't then we only push the wave to the autumn.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-third-wave-its-here-but-it-shouldnt-delay-our-reopening/amp

"But what my model shows is that even if the Indian variant is as infectious as people say — and we end up with millions more new infections — the NHS will not be overwhelmed. The vaccines have seen to that. Let’s not forget that the third wave will also be spreading immunity. Once it has passed (which looks set to happen by the end of August) we could be looking at 95 per cent immunity — a pretty good protection against any fourth wave. There may be little incentive to vaccinate school-age children.

My estimate of millions of new infections might look daunting. No one wants to think that millions of Britons will soon acquire the virus or that thousands more may die. My point is that Professor Whitty was right: a third wave of Covid is indeed meeting a wall of vaccinated people. These people can carry on with their lives.

On Monday, the Prime Minister could decide to take the final step out of lockdown on 21 June — and allow us all to mix as freely as we did before the pandemic started. Some are advising him to keep several restrictions after this date. Perhaps the one-metre social distancing advice, perhaps the work-from-home orders (ignored by the 60 per cent of Britons who are going to the office as per usual). But the model shows that the virus is growing exponentially already; the final step on the roadmap out of lockdown makes little difference.

We are already mixing about as liberally as we would otherwise do on a full reopening. Not out of carelessness but, perhaps, out of an acceptance of risk. Regardless of which course of action we take this month — stay as we are, fully reopen or delay until the end of August — we will have to get through an exit wave. But one which, thanks to the vaccine, no longer carries the danger that it once did."

[quote winched]@herecomesthsun that wasn't the last part and not what I was referring to. The last part was: as if that's alright then, their lives don't matter.

[/quote]
well then if the lives of the vulnerable still matter we should be proceeding stepwise, listening to the scientists, listening to Chris Hopson, heeding the trend of the data and jettisoning all thought of a grand opening on June 21st.

If you agree with me (and apparently with SAGE as their putative spokesperson ) then there's no need for further argument as we are in one accord?

June 21st is erm over.

As the loathsome Julie Burchill presciently opined - lockdowns are where middle class hide away and working class folk bring them stuff.

@bollihigh

This guy who's been pretty much on the money is saying we need to re-open and expect around 7k deaths as a result. Much less than a bad flu season and if we don't then we only push the wave to the autumn.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-third-wave-its-here-but-it-shouldnt-delay-our-reopening/amp

"But what my model shows is that even if the Indian variant is as infectious as people say — and we end up with millions more new infections — the NHS will not be overwhelmed. The vaccines have seen to that. Let’s not forget that the third wave will also be spreading immunity. Once it has passed (which looks set to happen by the end of August) we could be looking at 95 per cent immunity — a pretty good protection against any fourth wave. There may be little incentive to vaccinate school-age children.

My estimate of millions of new infections might look daunting. No one wants to think that millions of Britons will soon acquire the virus or that thousands more may die. My point is that Professor Whitty was right: a third wave of Covid is indeed meeting a wall of vaccinated people. These people can carry on with their lives.

On Monday, the Prime Minister could decide to take the final step out of lockdown on 21 June — and allow us all to mix as freely as we did before the pandemic started. Some are advising him to keep several restrictions after this date. Perhaps the one-metre social distancing advice, perhaps the work-from-home orders (ignored by the 60 per cent of Britons who are going to the office as per usual). But the model shows that the virus is growing exponentially already; the final step on the roadmap out of lockdown makes little difference.

We are already mixing about as liberally as we would otherwise do on a full reopening. Not out of carelessness but, perhaps, out of an acceptance of risk. Regardless of which course of action we take this month — stay as we are, fully reopen or delay until the end of August — we will have to get through an exit wave. But one which, thanks to the vaccine, no longer carries the danger that it once did."

What an idiot. What about the fact high numbers of cases in a partially vaccinated population will put pressure on the virus to escape the vaccines. It's not rocket science. Jeez.

@winched - very well said.

Thank you @winched for articulating what I have been trying to explain for a long time.

lol.

It doesn't matter what you say or how poorly as long as you tell people what it suits them to hear