How much further can covid mutate?

[Thelm]

I’m just wondering. Is there a limit as to how far a virus can mutate? Are we going to still be in a race to contain it in five years time?

I just don’t know how this will end.

I was wondering the same thing.

Viruses do this all the time. Hence why flu injection updated every year.

In theory, infinitely.

As above, forever. Flu mutates every year, hence the need for a flu shot annually.

Independent sage had a bit on this yesterday although to be honest I can't recall it, I haven't watched the full call but I think the belief was that their wouldn't be infinite mutations.

This is quite a good article

www.livescience.com/how-much-can-coronavirus-mutate-variants.html

Yes- there is no limit.

That's how mutation/evolution works.

Some mutations may also be positive mutations which have much lower transmission etc.

There's no limit. Viruses mutate forever. But we can't live in and out of lockdown forever. Once everyone who can be vaccinated is then it's just going to have to be a case of get on with it. Sadly, viruses kill people all the time.

Yes, but the virus will be mutating several ways at the same times in different populations. So one positive mutation which affected transmission would soon be overwhelmed by the one that rips through the population. Hence social distancing etc needing to remain.

Not everyone wants to be vaccinated though. If they were, we could greatly reduce the risk of mutations and cases and comfortably get on with our lives. Just hoping that when the majority are vaccinated, at least those that have gone down that route can relax a lot more knowing they're living their lives but unlikely to be seriously ill.

Virus mutate and will continue to mutate forever. It is not in a viruses interest to die so will become more transmissible but less deadly so that it can continue to survive in more hosts. Covid is likely to follow this same pattern but it could differ from most other viruses, that is the concern at the moment although unlikely

Effectively forever, and because covid spreads easily during its incubation period, there is NO evolutionary pressure on it to evolve into a milder form. The ONLY selective factor is that variants that evade the immune system more successfully will win. Becoming a milder virus is not really on the cards.

Covid is a much more serious disease than influenza, and even flu can kill a LOT of people - the Spanish Flu variant of flu wiped out a good chunk of the world's population.

"Living with it" is quite simply not an option we should be considering. As long as the virus is spreading through a population, it will evolve to defeat any existing immunity, whether "natural" or "vaccine" acquired. Boosters are likely to have gradually less and less effect - training the human immune system is easy, but retraining it - somewhat harder.

"Living with it" means a world with a substantially reduced life expectancy. Significantly more spending on health care (i.e. higher taxes). And years in which lockdowns are required due to a more severe than usual strain circulating. Personally I want to avoid this future, but the sad lack of foresight and discipline across Western countries is making it inevitable.

Thanks for your replies. So what is our exit strategy then? Because I can’t go on like this much longer. Just when things seem to be getting better it feels like hope is snatched away again.

What happened to Spanish flu?

@strangeshapedpotato

Do you have a source for this?

Boosters are likely to have gradually less and less effect - training the human immune system is easy, but retraining it - somewhat harder

@strangeshapedpotato

Effectively forever, and because covid spreads easily during its incubation period, there is NO evolutionary pressure on it to evolve into a milder form. The ONLY selective factor is that variants that evade the immune system more successfully will win. Becoming a milder virus is not really on the cards.

Covid is a much more serious disease than influenza, and even flu can kill a LOT of people - the Spanish Flu variant of flu wiped out a good chunk of the world's population.

"Living with it" is quite simply not an option we should be considering. As long as the virus is spreading through a population, it will evolve to defeat any existing immunity, whether "natural" or "vaccine" acquired. Boosters are likely to have gradually less and less effect - training the human immune system is easy, but retraining it - somewhat harder.

"Living with it" means a world with a substantially reduced life expectancy. Significantly more spending on health care (i.e. higher taxes). And years in which lockdowns are required due to a more severe than usual strain circulating. Personally I want to avoid this future, but the sad lack of foresight and discipline across Western countries is making it inevitable.

Prize for the gloomiest most depressing post

It's interesting though because although flu mutates, the expectation seems to be mostly that it stays within fairly narrow bounds in terms of deadliness. Obviously there are exceptions - Spanish flu, swine flu (to a lesser degree) - but as a rule, the 'ordinary' yearly flu is relatively stable, is it not? Maybe the same will happen with covid.

flu mutates like crazy, coronaviruses mutate much more slowly. Until 2020 most people had some natural or vaccine immunity to most types of flu, but nobody had immunity to covid.

Once there's lots of natural/vaccine immunity to covid then the covid mutation rate will seem very slow, because it won't be able to spread easily -- it's each transmission that creates chance of mutation.

Most the world isn't vaccinated... is the problem. We're still waiting for Peru, Nigerian, DRC versions of covid. Because old people are sickest then they probably do the most spreading, so asap vaccinating old people in poor countries will prevent some mutant C19, too.

So what would you do @strangeshapedpotato? If you were voted in to No 10 or the White House

All I will say is certain scientists and governments have a lot to answer for. Im very angry if we are all stuck in this situation down to irresponsible bloo** scientists.

@strangeshapedpotato

Effectively forever, and because covid spreads easily during its incubation period, there is NO evolutionary pressure on it to evolve into a milder form. The ONLY selective factor is that variants that evade the immune system more successfully will win. Becoming a milder virus is not really on the cards.

Covid is a much more serious disease than influenza, and even flu can kill a LOT of people - the Spanish Flu variant of flu wiped out a good chunk of the world's population.

"Living with it" is quite simply not an option we should be considering. As long as the virus is spreading through a population, it will evolve to defeat any existing immunity, whether "natural" or "vaccine" acquired. Boosters are likely to have gradually less and less effect - training the human immune system is easy, but retraining it - somewhat harder.

"Living with it" means a world with a substantially reduced life expectancy. Significantly more spending on health care (i.e. higher taxes). And years in which lockdowns are required due to a more severe than usual strain circulating. Personally I want to avoid this future, but the sad lack of foresight and discipline across Western countries is making it inevitable.

So what is the answer because I absolutely refuse to live like this forever.

Your scenario is my absolute worst nightmare.

What possible sustainable alternative option do we actually have?

"flu mutates like crazy, coronaviruses mutate much more slowly."

In that case, why are we not on tenterhooks every year in case the flu becomes more deadly? I mean, we are, in that we know it's a possibility, but it's not like now with covid, where each new mutation every couple of months brings massive trepidation in case existing vaccines are totally ineffective, and in case it's much much more deadly? The timescale seems different - is it just the sheer numbers infected that is creating more, and more dramatic, mutations? Genuine question - my knowledge of virology is zero.

@strangeshapedpotato

Effectively forever, and because covid spreads easily during its incubation period, there is NO evolutionary pressure on it to evolve into a milder form. The ONLY selective factor is that variants that evade the immune system more successfully will win. Becoming a milder virus is not really on the cards.

Covid is a much more serious disease than influenza, and even flu can kill a LOT of people - the Spanish Flu variant of flu wiped out a good chunk of the world's population.

"Living with it" is quite simply not an option we should be considering. As long as the virus is spreading through a population, it will evolve to defeat any existing immunity, whether "natural" or "vaccine" acquired. Boosters are likely to have gradually less and less effect - training the human immune system is easy, but retraining it - somewhat harder.

"Living with it" means a world with a substantially reduced life expectancy. Significantly more spending on health care (i.e. higher taxes). And years in which lockdowns are required due to a more severe than usual strain circulating. Personally I want to avoid this future, but the sad lack of foresight and discipline across Western countries is making it inevitable.

Might as well kill myself now then.

Flu pandemic has been number 1 on the UK Risk Register for years. From disaster planning perspective, it has been considered the top acute threat.

There is ...cross? immunity between strains of flu; many of us have some residual immunity to any new strain because of prior exposure.

Not to covid. No one had immunity to that.