How much further can covid mutate?

[Thelm]

I’m just wondering. Is there a limit as to how far a virus can mutate? Are we going to still be in a race to contain it in five years time?

I just don’t know how this will end.

Given that flu never existed before the spanish variant which was 1918

Huh?

LMAO!

We cannot be certain of exactly when influenza began as they didn't do genetic sequencing in the middle ages, but it's been around since at least the 16th century, and possibly dates back thousands of years prior to that!

Perhaps an article in Clinical Infectious Diseases, one of the leading journals on infecious diseases from 2010 titled "Pandemic Influenza's 500th Anniversary"

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3106245/

I look forward to your silence now because it's hard to think of someone embarassing themselves publicly more than you have just done lol.

Covid can and will mutate infinitely, particularly when it has such high numbers of "hosts". Until there is International reduction in cases, we will have many mutations.

Strangeshapedpotato summed it up pretty much

I did read somewhere - sorry can’t remember where, that a university was working on a vaccine which will work on all possible mutations of coronavirus. So that could be the exit strategy.
Unfortunately it is likely that the variants get more and more contagious. As it is inevitable that the less contagious due out. I wish it could become less deadly as a result of mutation but that just doesn’t seem to be happening.

We didn't have a vaccine to pandemic flu in 1918, 19, 20, beyond - the roaring 20s ensued. We won't be locking down for covid forever.

This may be disappointing to some, but that's how it is. Anyone who wishes to lock themselves down is perfectly welcome to do so, as some have chosen to do before them, however the rest of us will not be validating that choice with our own participation.

@strangeshapedpotato

Given that flu never existed before the spanish variant which was 1918

Huh?

LMAO!

We cannot be certain of exactly when influenza began as they didn't do genetic sequencing in the middle ages, but it's been around since at least the 16th century, and possibly dates back thousands of years prior to that!

Coronaviruses have been around for God knows how many years too, but it ain't covid.

Spanish flu is Spanish flu, minted in 1918.

@SallyBasingstoke where are you getting the idea that flu never existed before the Spanish Flu?

@SallyBasingstoke

Given the first line states "It is impossible to know with certainty the first time that an influenza virus infected humans or when the first influenza pandemic occurred" and this has no bearing to spanish flu which is now responsible for modern day flu what relevance is that? The whole point of the argument is illustrating how modern flu compared to its forefather the spanish flu... what the hell has an unrelated variant 500 years ago to do with what we now know as flu that didnt exist then?

So deceit is now your game.

Clearly having embarassed yourself with quite frankly the funniest claim I've heard all week! You either couldn't quite bring yourself to read the second sentence (brain hurt?) or read it and decided to pretend it wasn't there? Difficult to tell really as lack of intelligence and lack of honesty often go hand in hand.

For anyone else's interest, I'll post it here

"However, many historians agree that the year 1510 a.d.—500 years ago—marks the first recognition of pandemic influenza"

The first sentence Sally quoted refers to the later discussion where flu may have been doing the rounds thousands of years ago, but with only rough descriptions of symptoms to go off, nobody can be sure.

@SallyBasingstoke

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/

The pandemic in 1918 was hardly the first influenza pandemic, nor was it the only lethal one. Throughout history, there have been influenza pandemics, some of which may have rivaled 1918's lethality

I don’t think anyone is enjoying lockdown or wanting it to go on forever. What a strange assumption to make

I was hoping it would eventually figure out its best not to kill your host and mutate to be milder, like the common cold, but so far it just seems to be mutating to be more deadly.

@Turquoisesol

I don’t think anyone is enjoying lockdown or wanting it to go on forever. What a strange assumption to make

I agree, it's strange. Some people make this comment every time anyone expresses any concern about covid. If you don't stick your head in the sand and pretend it doesn't exist, you're apparently loving covid and everything that goes with it.

I can only assume denial is a coping mechanism for some people. I prefer not to lie to myself though and try and under three facts

*understand

Virus will always mutate. It's evolution.

@Staffy1

I was hoping it would eventually figure out its best not to kill your host and mutate to be milder, like the common cold, but so far it just seems to be mutating to be more deadly.

That's the problem with covid - it has an long incubation period during which it is highly infectious. It doesn't really matter whether or not it eventually kills the host. From an evolutionary perspective it has nothing to gain from becoming milder.

Contrast with SARS-1. Easy to stop because people weren't very infectious until they were VERY ill. Easy to identify and isolate, assuming they are even capable of moving about at that point!

If someone wanted to create a virus that seriously fucked the (freedom loving) West, they couldn't possibly have done a better job than SARS-COV-2. (Note, I don't believe it was man-made. It's just that it's almost the perfect virus.)

Strange I agree re long incubation period and not needing to get milder

And in terms of variables I can imagine some worse versions but this stuff led us up pretty well

Btw did you consider the NZ question?