If (big if) the virus is manmade

[Itsnotyourchoiceanymore]

Then will it keep mutating no matter what as possibly that’s what the program is meant to do?
I’m avoiding naming countries or finger pointing as that’s not the purpose of my question

Well, it would lead to long-term international pariah status for the country in question, for one. But if it’s a country the western world relies on heavily in one way or another then the way that plays out practically will be interesting.

Just going to answer the question and ignore the other stuff

Nope, you can’t artificially design a recombinant virus to have a higher mutation rate than a ‘natural’ virus.

All RNA based viruses have a relatively high mutation rate, particularly when you have such high levels of transmission.

Viruses keep mutating whether they're manmade or not - that's how they survive. Why do you think we don't only ever have one cold in our lives and then we're immune?

@speckledostrichegg that’s a bit comforting to hear.

I don’t think it’s a big if. I think it’s by far and away the most likely scenario.

I don’t know what that means for mutation of the virus though.

It does have major consequences for culpability. The fact that gain of function research was taking place in a lab in a city is just fucking crazy. I don’t agree with gain of function research at all, but if it has to take place or should do so on a boat in the middle of an ocean, thus giving far less opportunity to allow virus escort out into a community.

If it is, I wonder what sanctions and restrictions will be put on that country? Will it be considered an act of war? Seeing as 90% of what we buy is made there we will be all fucked if suddenly nothing is allowed to be imported.

There’s no evidence it is man made. It seems very unlikely, based on the analysis done on it.

It may, however, be a naturally occurring virus that was captured and escaped from the lab. That seems to be the theory they’re looking into now.

@Arbadacarba I get that but I was wondering if it’s manmade then doesn’t that mean it’s been tampered with? Therefore would that mean that the ‘setting’ is to create maximum damage, which might be different if it’s organic

Escape, not escort

I think you’ve been watching too much sci fi.

For too long weve based our economy on trade, buying in instead of supporting domestic production and industry.

You cant hold a country to account if you are economically dependent on that country.

So no i cant see there being consquences

@TheKeatingFive

There’s no evidence it is man made. It seems very unlikely, based on the analysis done on it.

It may, however, be a naturally occurring virus that was captured and escaped from the lab. That seems to be the theory they’re looking into now.

This!

I have read that they would be able to tell if it had been altered artificially. But I'm still open minded about the escape of a natural virus from a lab. As for consequences, because it is probably accidental or at worst negligence that caused it to escape (if indeed it did) then it would be harder to impose sanctions but I suppose the UN and WHO could exert more control and inspection on the level 4 labs.

There’s no evidence it is man made. It seems very unlikely, based on the analysis done on it.

That doesn't rule out lab escape...

That doesn't rule out lab escape

That’s exactly the point I made in the rest of my post that you didn’t quote.

If you cut down the 5G masts and cover yourself in tin foil @Itsnotyourchoiceanymore then you will be fine

In my limited understanding, I think the options are:

1. Naturally-evolved zoonotic virus that spread to humans as the result of a chance encounter/invasion of habitats
2. Naturally-evolved zoonotic virus that made the jump to humans as the result of a lab accident
3. Naturally-evolved bat/animal virus that mutated as a result of gain of function research then made the jump to humans as the result of a lab accident
4. Genetically engineered virus specifically created as a potential bio-weapon that made the jump to humans as the result of a lab accident

#2, #3 and #4 all assume lab accidents, but I suppose the release could be deliberate. Seems that the Chinese government don’t have an awful lot to gain from it in the longer though and a terrorist group would presumably have taken credit for it by now.

#4 makes it sound like you can just build a virus to a specific purpose. As far as I understand it science in this area is very much trial and error and the resulting virus is unlikely to perform any more reliably than a natural virus or natural virus subject to gain of function. I may be very wrong about this!

@TheKeatingFive

There’s no evidence it is man made. It seems very unlikely, based on the analysis done on it.

It may, however, be a naturally occurring virus that was captured and escaped from the lab. That seems to be the theory they’re looking into now.

^ is far more likely.

I don’t think it was deliberate but very likely to be a lab escape. The whole bat/ pangolin/ wet market thing is much less likely and there’s no evidence for that. At least one lab in China was well known to be studying live coronaviruses and live bats for years. You can easily find all the published papers.

OP

I think you should read a little bit about viruses, how they transmit, how they mutate how and why they should be studied.

I thought the thinking was likely to be lab escape but not deliberate.

I don't agree that there was nothing to be gained. If they were prepared/have the sort of controls to stop or slow transmission, and they wanted to decimate the economies of several other large powerful nations...

Whether it is natural or man-made it was probably the lab escape. Agree with the PP who said labs like that should be out at sea.

According to some people, all life on earth was made by God, so maybe we should be applying sanctions against him?

Fact check: Obama administration did not send $3.7 million to Wuhan lab

eu.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/05/04/fact-check-obama-administration-did-not-send-3-7-m-wuhan-lab/3061490001/

Here is a fact check that debunks the idea that Obama funded the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) for coronavirus research.

However it goes on to state that the National Institutes of Health did provide a large grant ($3,378,896) to the Ecohealth Alliance to study how coronaviruses jump from bats to humans. This included studying live bats and the Ecohealth Alliance collaborated with and provided funding to WIV ($600,000).

All this is public record. I think we will find lab escape is the most likely explanation eventually.

It will certainly fuel even more mistrust & crazier conspiracy theories if it's proven to be lab escapee.