Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

If (big if) the virus is manmade

109 replies

Itsnotyourchoiceanymore · 29/05/2021 09:49

Then will it keep mutating no matter what as possibly that’s what the program is meant to do?
I’m avoiding naming countries or finger pointing as that’s not the purpose of my question

OP posts:
LindaEllen · 29/05/2021 10:50

It'll keep mutating anyway. I strongly believe the levels of covid we have now are the lowest achievable.

Tommika · 29/05/2021 10:59

[quote Itsnotyourchoiceanymore]@Arbadacarba I get that but I was wondering if it’s manmade then doesn’t that mean it’s been tampered with? Therefore would that mean that the ‘setting’ is to create maximum damage, which might be different if it’s organic[/quote]
A virus mutates and spreads or fails depending on how the elements mutate.

For the purposes of the question, consider that the word ‘design’ covers both natural random mutation and deliberate man made design:

It could be strong and fast acting - the virus’s life cycle from transmission, gestation, symptoms etc
It has less time before the individual notices they may have something wrong and isolate - not many chances to pass onto people, but it is strong up against the immune system.
If it passes to someone with a weak immune system then they get ill much quicker and potentially die.
People are infected but aren’t giving it opportunities to spread.

It could be weak and slow acting. This gives plenty of time for the infected to pass it on before they realise, but their immune system works on it and has more time to develop protection before the infection gets worse
It has the opportunity to spread to many people quickly but has less impact

Both, and all those inbetween occur naturally and if manufactured you don’t know which options to go for - maximum number of infections, or maximum effect with less infections

FudgeSundae · 29/05/2021 11:04

I read this as “If the virus is marmalade” Grin

HelpforFree · 29/05/2021 11:06

@speckledostrichegg

Just going to answer the question and ignore the other stuff Grin

Nope, you can’t artificially design a recombinant virus to have a higher mutation rate than a ‘natural’ virus.

All RNA based viruses have a relatively high mutation rate, particularly when you have such high levels of transmission.

But if it had been extensively developed and studied would the parts of its genetic sequence that would lead to pointless mutations or mutations to make it less virulent have been removed (if that’s possible ?)
bitheby · 29/05/2021 11:07

It's a biological entity so it behaves as a biological entity. I don't think that means that you can 'programme' it to behave in a certain way. It's a virus so it behaves like a virus.

Itsnotyourchoiceanymore · 29/05/2021 11:07

@FudgeSundae that would be marvellous- all you need to combat is bread butter and a toaster

OP posts:
CakesOfVersailles · 29/05/2021 11:08

@RainbowCrayons

I have read that they would be able to tell if it had been altered artificially.

You can identify alterations made using some old techniques but there are other techniques (e.g. serial passage and 'no-see-em' approaches) that do not leave the hallmarks of alterations. A bit like saying you can tell if someone has had their appendix out due to scarring - well, using old techniques yes, but using modern keyhole surgery, maybe not. Not a perfect analogy but you get the idea.

OP

The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) did famously study bat coronaviruses. The WIV was known to carry out Gain of Function experiments. These are experiments where you change the virus to improve transmissibility or introduce the ability to infect new species. The idea is to study how viruses may evolve and learn how to combat them ahead of potential pandemics. The obvious concern is if the altered virus escapes.

It's also true that while WIV had BSL-4 labs (highest safety level) work on novel coronaviruses can be carried out at lower safety levels. In addition, all it takes is one person messing up once, or one piece of equipment failing once for a virus to escape.

It doesn't make logical sense to me that covid-19 was engineered as a bioweapon and released deliberately. What gain could there be from that? Especially with it starting in Wuhan. However I can well believe that a natural virus or an altered natural virus that was being studied got out accidentally. Lab leaks happen all the time, including a fatal smallpox leak in the UK. SARS (the original one) leaked from labs in both China and abroad multiple times - sometimes causing deaths.

However I will also note that the reason bat coronaviruses were being studied was because they has already caused one natural epidemic and there was a strong possibility that there would be more. It is entirely feasible (and has for many months now been the scientific consensus) that the pandemic was caused by natural evolution of a virus in the community i.e. not in a lab.

Anyway, to answer your main question, whether or not it was natural or altered, viruses like this one mutate constantly. Sometimes the mutations are to the benefit of the virus, sometimes to its detriment. Mutations are accidents when the virus replicates itself not planned changes. It's just that if the mutation is a hindrance to the virus that strain will probably not infect as many people and will not become dominant.

Itsnotyourchoiceanymore · 29/05/2021 11:08

@LindaEllen so thee is a possibility of a ‘high’ than wave 1 and wave 2?

OP posts:
MedSchoolRat · 29/05/2021 11:20

All RNA based viruses have a relatively high mutation rate

All the microbiologists I speak to say coronaviruses have a built in proof reading system and an exceptionally low mutation rate. This information was volunteered often early in 2020 as a reason to be grateful about limits of harm covid would do (when we still had things like chat over coffee at work). And it has had relatively few mutations actually, compared to a virus with true high mutation rate.

Same microbiologists discussed articles that addressed the man-made hypothesis (published 2020) and how convincing they were that SARS-CoV-2 was not artificially created.

Lab escape of wild natural virus... maybe. I don't actually care. I am a bit baffled why this idea caught popular imagination except among people who want to vilify China-Chinese. Remove that motive or desired outcome & there isn't a lot to say.

TheKeatingFive · 29/05/2021 11:27

Remove that motive or desired outcome & there isn't a lot to say.

I disagree. If it were the case, a comprehensive overhaul of security measures in similar labs would be on the cards, plus some kind of global policing of them.

We may never actually know though.

gagrag · 29/05/2021 11:35

Lab escape of wild natural virus... maybe. I don't actually care. I am a bit baffled why this idea caught popular imagination except among people who want to vilify China-Chinese. Remove that motive or desired outcome & there isn't a lot to say.

I'm baffled as to why you think only racists would care!

somgreatapollo · 29/05/2021 11:35

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

BahHumbygge · 29/05/2021 11:35

This Level 4 military bioresearch lab was fully shut down in the summer of 2019 for gross negligence of biosecurity protocols and issued a "cease and desist" order.

Source: New York Times
www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick-biohazard.html

One of the "select agents" worked on was SARS-CoV 1, no. 19 on the list

Source: US Gov website <a class="break-all" href="https://www.selectagents.gov/sat/list.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.selectagents.gov%2FSelectAgentsandToxinsList.htmlwww.selectagents.gov/sat/list.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.selectagents.gov%2FSelectAgentsandToxinsList.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.selectagents.gov/sat/list.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.selectagents.gov%2FSelectAgentsandToxinsList.htmlwww.selectagents.gov/sat/list.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.selectagents.gov%2FSelectAgentsandToxinsList.html

A few weeks earlier, a nearby retirement community was hit by a mysterious, unidentified pneumonia-like respiratory pathogen, 54 became ill and a couple of residents died. It's practically unheard of for respiratory infections to spread in retirement communities in midsummer. A second nearby community was also hit.

Source: ABC News

abcnews.go.com/US/respiratory-outbreak-investigated-retirement-community-54-residents-fall/story?id=64275865

Most likely co-incidence.

TheKeatingFive · 29/05/2021 11:37

Also the truth is always worth pursuing, isn’t it?

I’m not sure why people would argue against that.

somgreatapollo · 29/05/2021 11:38

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

gagrag · 29/05/2021 11:39

Also the truth is always worth pursuing, isn’t it?

You'd think

I’m not sure why people would argue against that.

I am genuinely baffled as to what the motive for that would be?

JeanClaudeVanDammit · 29/05/2021 11:41

The lab leak theory doesn’t suggest it’s man made. Just that it was collected for study (from bats?) and escaped.

somgreatapollo · 29/05/2021 11:46

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

gagrag · 29/05/2021 11:50

@somgreatapollo I get it on that level but not the motive of an individual poster like @MedSchoolRat saying the truth only matters to racists.

speckledostrichegg · 29/05/2021 11:52

@somgreatapollo

As for vilifying the Chinese I am happy to vilify any country which commits a genocide against its Muslim population including the use of concentration camps, forced sterilisation and forced labour on an industrial scale.
can we be careful with this kind of language

anti-Asian hate crimes were already increasing in the UK and goodness knows how the latest theorising and speculations are going to impact on this

yeOldeTrout · 29/05/2021 11:53

oh come off it, we all know some 'truths' are more interesting than others. Nobody on MN or hardly anywhere cared about genomic sequencing of coronavirdae before 2020. That was long time a huge interesting truth for only a small niche group of people, not one on newspaper front pages. There is always a reason behind 'truth' seeking & the reason why is what makes it seem important.

Marmalade virus is an idea I like & find intriguing :)

QueenStromba · 29/05/2021 12:02

@speckledostrichegg

Just going to answer the question and ignore the other stuff Grin

Nope, you can’t artificially design a recombinant virus to have a higher mutation rate than a ‘natural’ virus.

All RNA based viruses have a relatively high mutation rate, particularly when you have such high levels of transmission.

Of course you can design a virus to have a higher mutation rate than a natural virus - you just need to introduce a more error prone polymerase.
Itsnotyourchoiceanymore · 29/05/2021 12:04

@QueenStromba yes this was what I was querying

OP posts: