Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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[quote JanFebAnyMonth]Cristina Pagel interviewed (2 mins) on Sky yesterday saying bluntly why we are not meeting the fourth Test and therefore should definitely not proceed to Step Four:
twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1398337653683200002?s=20[/quote]
I really really really hope they don't. Perhaps some relaxations somewhere could be allowed. Letting people get married properly for example.
I think the very best case scenario at the moment is to keep current restrictions broadly in place while everyone is vaccinated and as many as possible have a second dose. It will still take many weeks for the effect of the vaccinations to take proper effect though. I can live with the restrictions as they are, especially through the summer months, and I suspect many others feel the same.

I think the very best case scenario at the moment is to keep current restrictions broadly in place while everyone is vaccinated and as many as possible have a second dose. It will still take many weeks for the effect of the vaccinations to take proper effect though. I can live with the restrictions as they are, especially through the summer months, and I suspect many others feel the same.

That is my view too. Keep the restrictions as they are, hopefully weather the inevitable rise in cases and monitor how much that feeds into hospitalisations and deaths, get all adults (at least) vaccinated twice, plus a couple of weeks to take effect, then consider wider re-opening.

I do think there are some possible small relaxations - bring the wedding guidance in line with funerals so it is in line with the capacity of the location rather than an absolute cap, for example, and allow socially distanced singing inside - but not a total free for all.

My greatest fear is a politically-driven opening on June 21st and a rapid retrenchment back to April (or earlier) restrictions.

"England data include people admitted to hospital who tested positive for COVID-19 in the 14 days prior to admission, and those who tested positive in hospital after admission.... Admissions to all NHS acute hospitals and mental health and learning disability trusts, as well as independent service providers commissioned by the NHS are included."

Are they all in hospital because they've got Covid? You could test positive and then turn up at A&E fourteen days later because you fell down the stairs.

My greatest fear is a politically-driven opening on June 21st and a rapid retrenchment back to April (or earlier) restrictions

Me too although I suspect that with the ongoing vaccination programme it may be measurably quicker to bring back under control. I’ve been saying for a long time that the key is ensuring a sustainable path forwards rather than allowing things to slip backwards unnecessarily. If that means a few extra weeks to allow second vaccinations to kick in fully then I think the pay off is worth it. That would coincide with schools breaking up for six weeks which would be another advantage. Nervous September on the horizon though.

Imho we’ve had our warning with Chile getting carried away too early (although this seems to have been overshadowed by the fact they also used a less effective vaccine) and we would do well to actually use the evidence provided by other countries for once in this whole sorry mess.

I suspect that with the ongoing vaccination programme it may be measurably quicker to bring back under control.

But that isn't much help to the restaurants, bars, theatres, cinemas, universities - in the worst case, non-essential shops and schools - that have to crash shut again for that period.

Better to hold us at a stable 'May 17th' level - where most people can do most of what they want, most of the time.

@Frazzled2207
I agree. Some restrictions should remain until we know which way this is going.

However I feel that the leadership is too swayed by an eye on the current populist views and aren't particularly into looking into the future.

Better to hold us at a stable 'May 17th' level - where most people can do most of what they want, most of the time

I absolutely agree, I’m looking for the saving graces if the government repeat the same mistake again and give in to populism over sustainable recovery.

I agree too (and I don’t think Cristina Pagel is saying never proceed to Step Four?).

R4’s The Week in Westminster this morning, obviously discussing Cummings, said that perhaps his most important point was that about our resistance to learning from countries with different cultures to ours (Asian ones, in the case of 2020) and how that needs to change.

Only thing I’d amend about Step Three (version ii) is to return to masks in secondaries.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Only thing I’d amend about Step Three (version ii) is to return to masks in secondaries.

Tbh, of the local secondaries (low risk area) only 1 has removed masks entirely. All the others have kept them except when seated in the classroom.

I usually only lurk on here for the rationality and excellent info, but here's something I don't understand and wondered if anyone else might?

It's reported - though not much as it doesn't suit the usual media narrative - that cases in India are way down, even with only 12% having had their first vaccination

Considering some also say the Indian variant is "more infectious" this seems to have happened very quickly; it's good news of course, but does anyone have any insight into why?

We, and all the schools I know of locally, have removed masks for students entirely.....

iSAGE yesterday on why the govt might be suppressing data about school infection rates. It’s 13 mins schools discussion but interesting:

(Direct link to the start of the question:)

Christina Pagel does sound terribly cross and frustrated.

BMJ article to which they refer:

blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/05/28/the-uks-response-to-new-variants-a-story-of-obfuscation-and-chaos/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork&fbclid=IwAR3zQdxB51jE27-S49gBd-p6df1JaefRvO_fAHb2pKXVuDtm6uqQU-MRqYY

@Piggywaspushed

Christina Pagel does sound terribly cross and frustrated.

She does though she is very much the cautious end of the spectrum. I saw some discussion of her comments on Twitter- it may not affect many of us personally but many businesses are totally reliant on restrictions easing up significantly on 21st June. They aren’t impressed.

Disclaimer- on the schools issue I agree with her absolutely and being a parent of schoolchildren in another part of greater Manchester the suppression of the schools data is greatly worrying. Is the government going to hold on to the data until the problem hopefully just goes away?!

It's a good question as to why cases are falling in India. Having vaccinated 11% of their population it's unlikely vaccines will be doing much to keep transmission down (though they may be helping reduce deaths and hospitalisation - only 6% of India's population is over 65, so they've likely protected most of those most at risk even with just 11% vaccinated) I would imagine it's a combination of lockdown rules and people being scared/cautious about mixing with others. And an element of herd immunity in the populations/areas where case rates are highest.

I'd look at the testing numbers

India has had lots of lockdown (or only slightly lighter) restrictions. There look to be plans to start lifting some restrictions (see link for dates), then I guess we'll see what happens next.
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/newsblogs/coronavirus-india-cases-daily-updates-may-28/amp_liveblog/83024368.cms

Wasn’t their vaccination initially open to all adults and they’ve only recently started targeting elderly? So wouldn’t explain the fall.

Remember we discussed on here when the gpvt refused the FOI request for schools data but said they were going to publish it “very shortly”? I said I couldn’t see why Prof Deeks was so cross. Now I do.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Wasn’t their vaccination initially open to all adults and they’ve only recently started targeting elderly? So wouldn’t explain the fall.

Doesn't much matter which 11% of people you vaccinate - it's not going to make a huge impact on transmission.

I would imagine it's a combination of lockdown rules and people being scared/cautious about mixing with others.

The conditions in which hundreds of millions of Indians live make it impossible not to mix with others. That's a luxury they don't have.

Masks are still to be worn all the time in Scottish high schools. Although the actual wearing is getting quite lax according to DD. R0 in Scotland is now between 1 - 1.3, with a huge increase in the last few days.
Our gyms, indoor hospitality ( with no alcohol ) etc, opened on the 26April and indoor drinking, in home socalising and cinemas etc on 17th May. Even with the current restrictions on large gatherings, I don't see how exponential increase in transmission can be avoided. Especially as the Scottish population has lower levels of natural immunity.
I imagine it will become clearer in the next week or so if cases translate into hospital admissions. Not feeling very optimistic.