Data, Stat, Daily Numbers started 26th May 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Covid 19 Variant Mapping Sanger Institute covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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@NicknamesAreLikeKleenex

Dropping in to share an interesting graph from an actuary showing vaccinated% vs median age by local authority. mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1398256280138096640 As a Londoner I find it a bit worrying, although “median age” as a proxy for vaccine eligibility is flawed - it’s possible/plausible that London population is more bunched among the twenty-forty group, whereas Manchester/Birmingham with similar median ages are more evenly spread up the age band, hence with higher vaccine eligibility.

I don't see how this works except for major outliers until vaccination is open to everyone. Younger boroughs obviously have fewer vaccinations, but a median could hide a mix of 50+20yo families or a raft of 35yo. Inequities in distribution also aren't accounted for; SW London CCG get jabbing only when the national age move on, but some other CCGs have been merrily moving on with younger ages.

Sorry, hit post too soon. It also doesn't account for the poor understanding of population, which is worst in the cities where more young (mostly European) people registered are GPs went to wherever home is, and some older people abroad moved back (check the >100% over 70s stats). We simply don't know our population, so the percentages are tricky to have faith in.

Although hospitalisations and hospitalised are possibly the most watched measures now; cases remain important and most easily produced at the lower level geographies

These are council areas that have increased over the past week; in descending order by case rate; and stopping at 25 cases per 100,000 in the most recent week. Given the speed results look to be coming through a two day lag is applied with five weeks worth of rates shown, and four weeks of week on week movement, simply shown as green (decrease / flat as compared to the previous week) and amber (increase).

Lot in the North West - Greater Manchester and Lancashire boroughs in the main, not looked closely enough but few if any from Liverpool City Region or Cumbria. Cheshire East appears; but not Cheshire West & Chester (a few points under the 25 per 100,000 cut off I have applied). But also on the first slide the likes of Leicester; Luton; Reading; Watford and Kingston (upon Thames; not Hull!!!!).

There are some such as Hounslow (second slide) which although showing an increase is actually a little lower than two weeks earlier; likewise Leeds.

Charnwood and Blaby - both bordering Leicester show increases. Whether their proximity to Leicester is a factor remains to be confirmed. Oadby and Wigston is not in this list at the moment.

and in the interest of balance these are Council areas that had a rate of at least 25 per 100,000 in the prior week but which have shown a decrease, or at worst remained flat in the most recent week. This group therefore includes Bolton. And South Hams. :) And of course Erewash which has gone from close to 200 per 100,000 a couple of weeks ago to now single figures.

In my council parish its less than 9 per 100,000 . North east

79% have had first dose and 53% second.

finally these each are green in four final columns; so case rate has decreased week on week since end of April.

Was watching the BBC news just now and they seemed to be suggesting that the situation has peaked in India. While I appreciate that it can be difficult to obtain accurate data, I just wondered how likely that was in the absence of a lockdown or extensive vaccination programme?

@Dementedswan

In my council parish its less than 9 per 100,000 . North east

things are looking positive in much of the North East. Good news.

@MRex

Sorry, hit post too soon. It also doesn't account for the poor understanding of population, which is worst in the cities where more young (mostly European) people registered are GPs went to wherever home is, and some older people abroad moved back (check the >100% over 70s stats). We simply don't know our population, so the percentages are tricky to have faith in.

I agree with the core sentiment.

I'm intrigued though as to which geographies using the correct NIMS population stats, as updated each week, return an uptake in excess of 100% though. In any age group.

It is! I chose to continue homeschool with schools backing until after Easter hols. When they reopened schools it was right in our area. If I remember correctly something like 430/100, 000

@PurpleWh1teGreen

Was watching the BBC news just now and they seemed to be suggesting that the situation has peaked in India. While I appreciate that it can be difficult to obtain accurate data, I just wondered how likely that was in the absence of a lockdown or extensive vaccination programme?

We discussed this yesterday - sorry I know scrolling back isn’t that easy on MN though. Don’t think we had an answer apart from that India’s testing figures are not really reliable anyway.

Watching India on Worldometer stats, number of tests are showing as relatively consistent at around 2m per day but positivity rate has steadily gone down from a peak of 25% early May to less than 8% now. Considering this has taken only 3 weeks and has fallen faster than London during January lockdown it looks pretty impressive.

If I was optimistic i'd cautiously say the peak has passed but the pessimist in me wonders whether the worried well aren't accessing more of the PCR tests and skewing figures.

the pessimist in me wonders whether the worried well aren't accessing more of the PCR tests and skewing figures

That’s more what I’m wondering tbh. I’d like to believe that the worst has passed, but it seems unlikely given the limited intervention in such a large population.

A locked down population would fall slower than a non-locked down one wouldn't it? Lock down delays infection more than it prevents it, it prevents it too of course, but only if cases get low enough that you no longer have the opportunity to catch it.

Mostly though the lockdown keeps you from contact for a few days before you are forced into a place where you catch. If the population can't be locked down, then the spread is faster, which means the decline is also faster because there are less susceptible people to catch it, because more caught it at the same time.

It's seems unlikely to me that the worried well in India would start being more wary and accessing more tests in India at the same time as the genuinely ill become blasé and accessing fewer tests. Reported deaths have also started falling there. So more likely that cases are indeed falling. As someone posted previously they've had some serious lockdowns in many parts of India. In addition there may have been behavioural changes with people trying very hard not to catch it at such a dangerous time (very high rates, hospitals full), and an element of herd immunity building up as so many have had it.

The Sanger variant download file has been updated this morning. Goes up to w/e 29th May; however that is clearly very much inpomplete at this stage.

Attached is a summary from the latest dataset.

Total B1.617.2 cases picked up through surveillance each week (remembering the exclusions to this data set - "special studies and known travel")

All cases subject to surveillance testing each week (again with the same exclusions)

Percentage of B1.617.2 of total. Rapidly increasing as we all know.

Then a count of councils in which surveillance tests were recorded. NB this is a little less than the total number of Councils in England

Number of Councils in which the B1.617.2 was picked up

Percentage of Councils in which B1.617.2 was picked up

Then a breakdown of the number of cases

I'll post council level detail shortly.

Council level B1.617.2 cases picked up through standard surveillance.

In descending order of cases picked up w/e 22nd May; also shows % of cases for each Council for that week; and then cumulative % for the week.

25 councils per table. This is 1 to 25; who between them accounted for 72.5% of B1.617.2 cases identified through standard surveillance in w/e 22nd May

Councils 26 to 50. These take us to 84.6% of B1.617.2

Councils 51 to 75 ; 90.8% of cases now covered

Councils 76 to 100

Councils 101 to 125

Councils 126 to 150

Councils 151 to 175

Councils 176 to 204 (or all those with a case picked up w/e 22nd May)