I have a bad feeling that we're screwed

[MyFloorIsLava]

This Indian variant is a disaster. I had thought that, with cases so far down, and the vaccine roll out going so well, that things would be back to normal a bit soon. But cases are up, hospitalisations are up, and the hospital in Bolton has gone from having 13 covid patients to 33 in a week. They're discharging everyone possible to brace for an admissions surge. I could cry my fucking eyes out. DH was so ill from covid, FIL died from it, and the cost to everyone's mental health is incalculable - plus the economy surely can't survive another lockdown. Selfishly, it looks unlikely that my DD will get her birthday party. I'm so fed up with it all.

I would assume then that the hotspots should be fairly contained in those areas? So we shouldn't see much of a rise in the surrounding areas which have a higher % of vaccinated residents?

I don’t think that holds at this point as there are still such large numbers unvaccinated under 50/40, in the demographics more likely to have social contact with others.

With a good headwind - good surge testing, good isolation - it will probably slow it down though.

The surge testing is one reason I’m not obsessing over the case numbers overall. People who are often derided as ‘Covid centrists’ (who I quite like to follow) are suggesting that case numbers where you have large amounts of surge testing happening aren’t necessarily a reliable measure of how the pandemic is going.

What hospitalisation data are people looking at?

The OP started with a normal-sounding, if fearful, OP.

Then, scrolling down, I see they start producing the charts......

I'm quite sceptical about these posts. If you are worried, why start a thread that scares even more people? If you are capable to read an article or graphs and charts, nothing suggests what OP fears.

Deaths are down, hospital admissions are down and continue to fall.

Calm down! Every day more and more people are being vaccinated. I think we will continue to see local hotspots for a while, but nothing like what we had in January.

I don’t really get your pessimism. Yes the Indian variant needs to be managed but as far as I can see we’re in a great position.

Please step away from Indie Sage. They are a liability. I think they're scaring a lot of people at this stage.

I'm sorry you feel so low, it has been really hard to cope the last few weeks with constant doom mongering about variants. I am concerned about the Indian variant myself but honestly all the evidence points to the fact we will be ok. There will be more deaths but then there were always going to be, just as winter will come around and people will die of things like pneumonia and flu. There is no magic cure where no one ever dies again of anything. Largely speaking, we know the vaccines work on all variants, we know lots have been safely jabbed and the numbers are going up every day. We know people will continue to get ill and die but hopefully in small numbers. Bolton is already looking like it's peaked with their latest numbers.

@Viviennemary

Ive got a really bad feeling too. AZ vaccine only 60% effective against the new variant and yet they are letting people go off abroad so we'll be back to square one again. It was lack of any kind of holiday and airport restrictions in the first placd that caused the UK to suffer so badly.

Efficacy varies year-to-year, but the flu vaccine is roughly 50% effective. It’s a vaccine that has been given for years. No-one is ever up-in-arms and worried about it.

It’s blooming amazing that, 9 months after the beginning of lockdown one, a vaccine was available to start rolling out. And that just a few months after that we’ve had so many people jabbed.

@IrmaFayLear

The OP started with a normal-sounding, if fearful, OP.

Then, scrolling down, I see they start producing the charts......

What's wrong with showing where I got the numbers i was discussing? The chart is showing numbers reported by the government and the NHS. It demonstrated the point I was making, that there is exponential growth of the Indian variant which vaccination and current restrictions aren't controlling. (The graph excluded numbers from surge testing so they seem to be a decent reflection of numbers in the community).

@roguetomato why do you think anyone would start a coronavirus post in the coronavirus section of a discussion site? To discuss? Honestly I was hoping for reassurance but have mainly just got mocked. 🤷‍♀️

But you got many reassurance. Many people pointed out positives yet you haven't responded to that at all. If that's what you wanted, why?

@Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady

Me too OP.

My mood is not helped by all the people on other threads living in hotspots bragging that because it "guidance not law" they will be off on their half term holidays in the UK as planned.

Well thanks for that! So we can all be in the same boat with the Indian variant soon. Brilliant!

This is why "personal responsibility" will not work. People are selfish

Including people who are quite willing to see people locked up forever and throw peoples mental health under the bus. Good on the people getting on with their lives, I will be doing the same. My family’s health, including mental health, is more important to me than some stranger on the internet. Everyone is selfish to a certain degree at least I am willing to admit it.

@IrmaFayLear

The OP started with a normal-sounding, if fearful, OP.

Then, scrolling down, I see they start producing the charts......

Doesn't that happen with most these threads 😬😂😂😂

[quote picturesandpickles]@QueenOfTheDoubleWide

Yes of course the areas with low vaccine rates will have higher infections, in my area it is the areas where students live - they haven't been offered the vaccine yet. Is that their fault?

The two age groups of high cases in Bolton are:
-School age children
-People who are, funnily enough, the age to have school age children

Do you think that pattern of spread is due to them being vax refusers? No. It is due to them being affected by the rapid spread through schools happening before the parents are old enough to be vaccinated.

The government want you to blame your fellow citizens. You're a fool if you fall for it.[/quote]
That's a really good point and I have seen Andy Burnham say this morning that the patients in the hospital are younger than previously which bears your point out.

Ultimately we all have to start looking harder at this information as data can be interpreted in different ways for different agendas. Jeremy Vine has clearly interpreted the vaccine data in one particular way to suggest vaccine refusal is an issue (and yes, you are right, I should have thought harder as he is no stranger to sensationalist shite) whereas the BMJ link is attempting to redress that balance but admits it lacks real evidence which is almost as bad.

@PrincessNutNuts

Vaccine take up in Bolton, Blackburn and Bedford.

Two of the places having surge testing in Hampshire at the moment are Hart and Rushmoor which are also on this list.

Ironic that the lowest vaccination rate in the country is Westminster

@TruelyStruttingHotpants what exactly is wrong with showing where I got my numbers? I was asked it directly.

I'm glad you got to have a laugh at someone. Has it improved your day? Boosted your self esteem?

@roguetomato

But you got many reassurance. Many people pointed out positives yet you haven't responded to that at all. If that's what you wanted, why?

What reassurance there was has largely been drowned out by arguing about personal responsibility and people chucking personal insults at me. Also, people saying "we're in a great position" aren't actually addressing the point i was asking. (I am fully aware how good the numbers are currently but they were great last summer too. It can all change very quickly.) A few more recent posters have, for which I am grateful.

If you are fully aware of the situation now as you say, there is no reason to compare it to last summer and feel fearful. The situation is completely different now with many people have been vaccinated.

[quote MyFloorIsLava]@TruelyStruttingHotpants what exactly is wrong with showing where I got my numbers? I was asked it directly.

I'm glad you got to have a laugh at someone. Has it improved your day? Boosted your self esteem?[/quote]
Yes it has obviously 🤪

It is just an obsession that this is the standard format for most these threads. Don't get your knickers in a twist. I clicked on looked, thought not interested, same old and left. You may continue happily without me. You have my permission to ignore anything you don't like

But we’re in a completely different position to last summer. We didn’t have a vaccine last summer. So it’s really not comparable.

Yes, there’s been some sniping, but quite a few posters have posted links and info which shows what a reasonably good position we are in. But you don’t seem to have acknowledged any of them.

I think that’s why these threads get people annoyed - because lots of people ignore measured information that’s posted. After a year it gets a bit wearing. I’ve pretty much avoided this board for a while because it’s constant rinse and repeat.

@roguetomato

If you are fully aware of the situation now as you say, there is no reason to compare it to last summer and feel fearful. The situation is completely different now with many people have been vaccinated.

Yet vaccination levels in Bolton aren't that dissimilar to the rest of the country but their cases per 100k is almost 40 times higher than the national average (450 compared with 12). Maybe the vaccine will mean that most people just have an annoying cough for a week and that's ok, but maybe not.

Last summer we didn't have a vaccine. We were a long way from having one or knowing how effective they would actually be. We also didn't have the Kent variant (I think that only appeared in September) and we had a long winter ahead of us, when we know respiratory viruses absolutely love winter. I don't know about you but it's helping me to think of winter being months off still now. There are also bits of info out there showing that travellers from India likely brought the virus home and then with many of them living in multi-generational houses, it spread fast. So it looked like the growth was exponential but then surge testing has kicked in, people are racing to do more vaccines in hotspots, so that growth is actually levelling off instead of spiralling more. So the situation looked worse than it was and the spread hasn't continued at the same pace in the wider community.

It's such a different situation to then, it really is. It's ok in my book to be scared and to need to talk this through, 2 weeks ago I was an absolute wreck reading the papers. I just think things have calmed down a lot since then and I feel much better.

Thank you @Fleek, that is a genuinely helpful post, both in terms of the talk about the cause of the spread and it levelling off, and the acknowledgement that talking can help.

@BoomChicka

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368.amp

Found it, look at the headline, then the graph.

That would be hilarious if it wasn’t such obvious manipulation. It makes you wonder why they used that graph at all when it so blatantly contradicts the headline. Do they think people can’t make connections?

People may mock the Op citing vaccine success as a reason for things looking more positive, but bearing in mind vaccine immunity doesn't last long, do people seriously think every year millions of people will keep going to the GP/ vaccine centres for jabs indefinitely to keep the terrifying new strains out of the Uk that have an average age of death above life expectancy? Some may- I know I won't be having injections which make me feel like shit continually for the next few years because I have the trauma of being called " a selfish anti vaxxer " if I don't

I loved that a couple of posters took my 'the government are catastrophising Mumsnetters' seriously...

@NatashaWilson123 about one-third of the population are invited for an annual flu vaccination already. Of course not everyone will have a covid annual vaccination. But elderly and vulnerable people will. Some unvaccinated people will and some will be pretty ill, just as you can be with flu.