I have a bad feeling that we're screwed

[MyFloorIsLava]

This Indian variant is a disaster. I had thought that, with cases so far down, and the vaccine roll out going so well, that things would be back to normal a bit soon. But cases are up, hospitalisations are up, and the hospital in Bolton has gone from having 13 covid patients to 33 in a week. They're discharging everyone possible to brace for an admissions surge. I could cry my fucking eyes out. DH was so ill from covid, FIL died from it, and the cost to everyone's mental health is incalculable - plus the economy surely can't survive another lockdown. Selfishly, it looks unlikely that my DD will get her birthday party. I'm so fed up with it all.

Surely we are in a far better position than we were six months ago with the bulk of the population vaccinated now.

Hopefully that's the end of the lockdowns.

In the US there is not a peep about this Indian variant and life is returning to normal slowly but surely. I'm so confused by the difference in the two countries. We have approx 50% of adults having had one shot, you can't be much further behind?

@Minstermouse

No, it just isn’t.

All vaccines are highly effective against it. Please, just stop with the catastrophising and get your free vaccine, open to all ages in areas where infection is high. No appointment necessary.

Absolutely.

@QueenOfTheDoubleWide

Yes of course the areas with low vaccine rates will have higher infections, in my area it is the areas where students live - they haven't been offered the vaccine yet. Is that their fault?

The two age groups of high cases in Bolton are:
-School age children
-People who are, funnily enough, the age to have school age children

Do you think that pattern of spread is due to them being vax refusers? No. It is due to them being affected by the rapid spread through schools happening before the parents are old enough to be vaccinated.

The government want you to blame your fellow citizens. You're a fool if you fall for it.

@arcof

In the US there is not a peep about this Indian variant and life is returning to normal slowly but surely. I'm so confused by the difference in the two countries. We have approx 50% of adults having had one shot, you can't be much further behind?

The US hasn't imported a lot of cases from India in a short space of time. UK border policy failure is the difference, plus our close links with India. UK has high numbers of cases of the variant - that's why Germany & Austria have again banned travel from UK.

[quote PurpleDaisies]Not sure about that, they have had pretty average uptake and rapid acceleration now.

Yes, there’s an article in the BMJ saying essentially the same thing.

www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1345[/quote]
If these London boroughs with less than 40% vaccine uptake are hit by the IV, then they are mightily screwed. They just haven't been - yet. Or are you suggesting that they have some magical immunity?

The IV is causing problems in the North West because it has clearly spread there on a greater scale, hence more positive tests for it, and it is causing hospitalisations among people who are inadequately protected.

I reckon the Tory party are all Mumsnetters and are manipulating the data so that everyone can have a good old catastrophise.

It is the Tory government not taking it seriously enough!

Yes, of course it is @Silvercatowner 🙄

@Silvercatowner

I reckon the Tory party are all Mumsnetters and are manipulating the data so that everyone can have a good old catastrophise.

This makes no sense. Boris is desperate to get back to normal and loads of the back benchers are vocal anti lockdown.

@arcof, odd isn't it.
UK two days ago : www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57221506.amp
In short, 72%adults 1 dose, 43% 2 doses. So vaccine rollout excellent and encouraging, but headlines awful.

@PaulGallico

OP if you are posting from a point of real anxiety then you have my sympathy. However I actually think you have posted with an attention grabbing title to see what kind of reaction you can get - 5 pages later I think it worked.

I like the fake nod towards sympathy to disguise the fact that you are putting the boot in. Nice

The IndieSage figures show pretty clearly that although Kent variant numbers continue to fall, Indian variant numbers are on the rise at an exponential rate.

Astonishing though it may be, I am not concerned about my physical health (fully vaccinated and I've had covid already). I'm also not a covid catastrophiser in general.

Also I don't blame people one bit for trying to have a normal life. Lockdown, basically being under house arrest for months on end, is torturous. People's mental health surely won't cope with another lockdown. Neither will the economy.

It isn't about me! Its about my relatives who aren't in great health. The cost to small business. The psychological impact on health care workers who have seen dangerously overcrowded hospitals - i have friends who are paramedics, intensive care nurses, radiographers, and they are borderline traumatised. I care about the people dying slowly completely alone. I care about the family friend who will probably never leave hospital, and hasn't been allowed a visitor for months. Literally months. I care about the children like my son who have additional needs but have had zero access to the provision they need because the SLTs, OTs etc are redeployed to fight covid.

If the Indian variant trickles out and doesn't become a massive surge then I will be absolutely fucking thrilled. I don't want to be locked down, I'm not one of those people enjoying it, I like cafes and the cinema and seeing my family, I want people to have their weddings and to be able to hug each other at funerals.

But yeah, you oh so clever sneery people, have a go at me for being concerned. If it makes you feel good get on with it.

The language used on here is fascinating. Cases "soaring" "surging" "massive rise" etc. Is it the media fueling this? I clicked a bbc article yesterday about Bolton and the hospital saying it had it's busiest ever day.. directly underneath the headline was a graph showing patient numbers in Bolton and rates were about 90% below the peak.. so which is it?

www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368.amp

Found it, look at the headline, then the graph.

Covid is here to stay like flu, it still has a population to work through.

The vaccines to date will help keep hospital admission rates and deaths low.

Unfortunately Bolton was an area of low vaccine take up combined with poverty where families (a notable proportion of extended ones) live in cramped homes etc. Perfect storm.

I guess this could be our new normal. New variants causing surges of cases etc.

Let's hope it doesn't mutate to a form that the vaccine isn't highly effective against.

Boom there are quite obviously some posters paid to be here and consistently send a message.
No normal person would spend so much time saying the same things on Every Single Thread. It’s quite transparent and funny in its way (imagine the sort of saddo taking that job? Their mothers must be so proud).

There are also the posters who are in hyper vigilance mode. The pandemic is clearly all they think about. Which is actually extremely sad for them and I have more tolerance with that, even if they’re not doing themselves any good.

Then there’s the self appointed COVID police. They’ve granted themselves expert status and are enjoying it (presumably not much else makes them feel important in life).

@RandomMess the last figures I saw IIRC were 63% take up in Bolton vs around 70% overall. So take 10 people from Bolton and 6.3 will be vaccinated vs. 7 elsewhere. Is that a big enough difference to be called a low take up?

I would avoid Independent Sage now. They had a function earlier on but now I’m not sure they are adding much these days. Some of their members have posted very odd things and I feel like they have become a sort of echo chamber to themselves. The Indian variant won’t be the last variant.

In fact the difference is much less - vaccine rates in Bolton for over 40's are almost identical to national average - www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/18/vaccine-hesitancy-narrative-fuelling-divisions-in-bolton-says-mp

Again, please read the numbers given not the bloody headline that says the opposite

The take up if vaccines in the country is pretty similar throughout the country.
And it’s not much less in the hot spots.

However, the difference in the hot spots is the variation in wards within them.
The low take up wards have specific characteristics which are leading to (relatively small) hospitalisation increases.

I think it needs pointing out that everyone has been under restrictions of one kind or another for the past 14 months. There have been spells (basically a short period last summer) where those restrictions were more severe in some places than others, which is of course difficult. But people in those places need to get it out of their heads that somehow everyone else has been living a normal life while they've suffered.

Thanks @HelloMissus, that does make sense. (bonus points for not using the word surging ).

I would assume then that the hotspots should be fairly contained in those areas? So we shouldn't see much of a rise in the surrounding areas which have a higher % of vaccinated residents?

In the ward worst affected it's 10% lower and most cases are in the under 40s also when were the rates measured? After they opened the new mass vaccination centres and had vaccine rates started to go up.

It is the new variant that is the issue as it's more transmissible.

It's the government that said it was fine for international travel to go ahead without appropriate isolation being enforced.

Eventually vaccine or not it seems that most of us will catch Covid hopefully for most of us it will now be either symptomless or a mild illness.

No doubt the factors that mean more BAME have died from Covid - racism, poverty will never be addressed.

I hope the hospitalisation mad death rates in Bolton, Leicester, Bedford remain low and a new Portuguese variant doesn't appear over the next few months!!!