To refuse the vaccine for this reason

[SEmyarse]

Goodness know why I'm doing this since I'm most averse to being flamed and I'm going to get grilled alive.

My reason being that I don't think that it will work. I don't mean the vaccine itself, I have no specialist knowledge. I mean the whole strategy of vaccinating everyone.

So we're told that the vaccine is good for personal protection. Got it - no-one wants to die of this nasty disease.
And then we're told that its good to protect those around us. Absolutely got it - even if there's a possibility of nasty side effects, I'm not important in the grand scheme, it's a risk assessment for everyone's benefit.

So of course I'd get the vaccine if those were the only considerations.
But surely that only works if we're isolated from the rest of the world. I know there's been lots of talk of helping poorer countries with their vaccine programmes, but really? We're expecting countries who struggle with persistent poverty, illness, war to prioritise this? It's just not going to happen is it? I just can't see it. And it really feels like we're just doing it to stop them giving it back to us.

And even within our own country, and even with our apparently very successful roll-out, I can't see this being sustainable. We already know that it's going to have to be repeated very frequently. Volunteers won't do it forever, halls etc can't be commandeered forever can they? The numbers are way bigger than the flu scheme.

So then we're back to risk assessment. I'm still not massively bothered by the possibility of side effects, but it does seem unwise to take it if I genuinely don't believe it will work or make things better.

In fact I'd go so far as to say that I'm concerned it's going to make things worse. If there was any way of having the young catch it in fairly quick succession, so from a super spreader, surely that would be safer. It would be transmitted in a smaller number of moves, thus less likely to mutate. As it is though we are forcing it though narrower channels of transmission (by social distancing etc), from person, to person, to person etc, giving it much more chance to change. Of course there is no way of doing this safely though. And then we have absolutely no influence when it lands abroad in much larger populations who often have no choice but to carry on, and there we are with another variant, with quite a possibility it will change enough to be a problem.

I honestly believe that the only sensible use of vaccines is for the most vulnerable, to do our best in an out of control situation.

Please just stop now, OP. And go get that vaccine.

And a job and a pension.

I think the OP is deliberately trying to wind people up, just to get a reaction. No-one can be that dense as to refuse to be vaccinated.

You just did that step too far thing Op. Only recently discovered the existence of pensions... yes of course you have.

This post is weird.

And if the OP really didn’t know about maternity leave and pensions, then she must be minted.

’I think the OP is deliberately trying to wind people up’

Yes

’No-one can be that dense as to refuse to be vaccinated.’

Er... May I draw your attention to the Coronavirus section where those with the tinfoil headgear hang out?

I am not an expert but from what I have heard getting the vaccine gives immunity for longer than having covid, so it's better to vaccinate young people. Plus, the risks seem to be lower for the personn.

On top of that, the virus mutates a lot in part because it is carried by a lot of people. Mutations are random errors in copying the virus' information, so if something is copied 10 000 times it will have more errors than something that is copied 1 000 times. Other things can affect mutation rates, like the environment (mutagens).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation

If you reduce the number of people who have covid by vaccinating, you will protect those people but also preserve the resources like medical supplies, doctor's time, etc... that are needed for people who are sick. So it's a win-win.

I'm going to try and answer some of your questions, not sure how helpful I'll be as it's been a loonnnng day at work but might as well have a go.

1. The flu programme - in usual years it is offered to anyone who works for the NHS, all children from 2 up to about the age of 12 (introduced over the past few years), everyone over 65, anyone with asthma, pneumonia and, diabetes or any of a long list of other conditions. Lots of people choose not to take it up but it is offered to them. Additionally lots of workplaces pay privately for a nurse/pharmacist to come in and give it to everyone or offer downloadable vouchers to have it at boots. Last year every over 50 was also invited and pharmacies alone nearly doubled their throughput.

1. The vaccination programme - practicalities of continuing it. We have a variety of services in the UK - and changes to the world create whole new sectors. for example, before the internet we didn't have internet service providers, and shops didn't have people running their websites and server farms didn't exist. Now they are an integral part of society they do. So the options for running this longer term will be as follows: a) anyone who has a flu jab gets a covid jab in their other arm at the same time (trials currently on-going to test clinical efficacy of this). That will cover off (assuming flu stays for 50s and over) nearly 60% of the population at a swing. For everyone else, if it becomes apparent that we need to keep going we will set up permanent centres. In my town the old Debenhams would be an obvious option. If vaccine supply is regular and workforce requirements are known then we will train adequate numbers of staff for it and the whole thing will be more sustainable longer term.

1. "Vaccine escape" and mutations. You seem to have some concerns that pushing the virus into fewer people will increase the risk of mutations. In reality viral reproduction and mutation works as follows:

i) virus is inside one host, enters host cells
ii) virus reproduces INSIDE THAT HOST - each cycle of reproduction is an opportunity for mutation. Reproduction creates so much virus the host cells burst and the virus is expelled from the host (e.g. by coughing).
iii) expelled virus infects a new host.

So you can see the opportunity for viral mutations is every time a new host is infected and the virus reproduces - it isn't any higher risk (of mutations) if someone infects 100 people at a covid party or 1 person who then infects another one - as long as the same number of people are infected. But the more people who are infected, the more times the virus is replicated and the higher the likelihood of a random mutation.

Mutations only matter if they Do Something. If it makes the virus better at infecting people, or makes a vaccine less effective (because it makes the virus "look" less like the vaccine). Lots of mutations will do nothing. But the more that happen the higher the likelihood one will reduce vaccine efficact.

So, looking at the long term - yes we do need to vaccinate the world or another Indian/Brazilian varient etc will come along. But in the interim we can reduce the likelihood by at least vaccinating our population. And in the longer term we can produce "updates" to the vaccine so that we can keep up with the variants.

To give an example of where that already happens: The flu vaccine is redesigned every single year and covers 3 or 4 variants of flu depending which one you have. Each year a group of scientists get together and analyse the data of what variants are circulating in the southern hemisphere flu season (during our summer) and predict which they think will take off most and include those in the northern hemisphere's winter flu vaccine. Some years they don't forecast as well and a different variant from what they expected is more common - that is part of the cause of a "bad flu year" when it happens - but often they get it right and it prevents enormous numbers of hospitalisations.

There's no reason we can't do the same thing for covid - we might have some "bad covid years" over time but a bad flu year doesn't look anything like this pandemic and a bad covid year won't either once the programmes for vaccination are up and running in the longer term.

There will still be the risk of another zoonotic disease, or a pandemic flu as there always has been, but there is no reason in the medium term (i.e within a couple of years) covid won't be able to be managed by countries like the UK as they manage flu.

Yeah and pigs fly.

Yes I'm fucking stupid ok.

I didn't know these things, I thought everyone would laugh at my ignorance but I didn't expect to be called a liar.

This is my life. Pregnant at 19 to a disabled terminally ill man, first 2 years as full time carer but then got gig economy work as a Hermes driver around my commitments. This is something I've done on and off ever since. Yes, I'm pissed off that I get no workers rights.

I'm NOT ALLOWED to be ill, let alone sick pay. I've not had a day off on the sick for 12 years (and then had to let someone do my deliveries uninsured), and not had a day off AT ALL now for approaching 2 years (60 hours a week - pandemic). I have recently been part of a winning tribunal case so I'm now allowed holidays for the first time in my entire life. Believe me maternity and pensions don't feature in our lives. Don't like being called a liar.

My last reply was long I actually missed making my final point at the end of it - what all of section 3 means is that the more people we vaccinate the better as we give fewer opportunities for mutation and make the likelihood of passing mutations on (by catching covid and then giving someone else it) lower. So they reduce your risk, your community risk and ultimately the risk to everyone else in the world.

YABU

If you don’t want the vaccine, that’s your choice. I think it is foolish, but it is your right to decline. But I do hope that you make that decision for a better reason than the one you have given. Because it makes no sense.

I think you appear to be scientifically illiterate, or spectacularly arrogant. Like a PP, I too am fed up of all the armchair scientists who do a little bit of internet research/ listen to a few experts on TV or radio, think about it a little and then decide they know far better than all of the extremely knowledgeable experts providing advice. I can’t decide if it is arrogance or stupidity, if I’m honest.

There is no silver bullet but the vaccine does supply both individual and community protection for the strains we have NOW. We are seeing this in the impact on admissions and deaths. Is it perfect? No, it is not. No single vaccination or medication is perfect. Does that mean it is not worth having? Not in most cases, and definitely not in this case.

Could the virus mutate, making the vaccines we have less effective? yes, it is. But there is reason to think that the current might provide some protection in that situation. There is a possibility a mutation (or mutations) may render all the vaccines we have totally ineffective. But that does not mean we could not alter the current vaccines to be effective against the new strain. These are hypotheticals though. Would you decline other effective medication- such as antibiotics- to prevent or treat a potentially life threatening illness on the basis that it may be less effective in the future were you ever to catch it again. E.g. “I’m I’ll with sepsis bit please don’t give me antibiotics because it could contribute to antiobiotic resistance”.

If you are holding out for perfection in perpetuity then I think you need to improve your understanding of virology and vaccines. This is the best we have right now. It works, as thing stand right now. Things might change. But, for now, the safest thing for you as an individual is to have the vaccine (unless you have a medical contra-indication). The best thing for the wider community, as things stand right now, is for you to have the vaccine. Do not let perfection be the enemy of the good, as a PP said.

@sejanusplinth

I'm understand you OP and agree with you for what it's worth. I've namechanged because I had a similar thread and it was all pitchforks and torches etc. Good luck!

Why namechange? Don’t you have the courage of your convictions?

I'm a CEV person living as an expat in a country that is several months behind the U.K. in terms of vaccine rollout.

We are working flat out to catch up, I had my first shot a few days ago, hamdullah, & we really aren't a reason for you not to have yours!

oh and to clarify, it's private pensions I'd not heard of . I just thought everyone got state money when old

I know it's bad form but I did do a search before engaging... If OP is a troll, she has been playing a very long game and waiting years for her moment. I think she is genuine.

If you work for Hermes, you are entitled
to holiday pay and days off, so that part is a nonsense. You are self employed and not obliged to work every day, Mon-Sat, Sunday optional,it’s easy to ask another courier
to cover your route so no need for ‘uninsured’, is your work something you’re not informed in either?

You have been locked down too long and have lost the plot op. If you don't want to protect yourself for you do it for your children.

OP, in your line of work you're at even more potential risk of catching Covid.

Please read some of the really clear and well-informed posts on here, such as those by @Gladioli23, and then please do accept the vaccine, to protect yourself and others.

Have not RTFT.

Why are you all so convinced that this will work in the longterm?
Because that's what many/most vaccines do.

If we are only going to be giving boosters to the vulnerable long term, then what is the point in vaccinating everyone now?
There is no certainty that further jabs will be needed in future. The reason to immunise now is to start the longer term adaptive immunity process.

most of us will have worn off immunity.
Nope. Antibodies are expected to fall off about three months after a viral illness, but T cell and B cell adaptive immunity have longer lasting effects, which is just what we want and hope the current vaccines will provide.

If someone could explain to me why we're not going to be right back here in a few months when immunity has worn off
Because the immunity shouldn't "wear off". Viral illnesses are often a one-off - catch them once and you're not likely to catch it again.

With a combination of naturally acquired immunity in those who have had and recovered from Covid (which will be boosted by vaccination) and those who will be vaccinated, we're giving the virus fewer and fewer hosts by the day.

A virus that can't find a new host is an unsuccessful virus, and ideally we'll put the brakes on this one to make it as unsuccessful as possible. Vaccinations will help do that.

I am very confused as to why the experts tell us to get jabbed when they tell us the virus mutates quickly and often
All viruses mutate, and this one has had more than 4000 of them since it first jumped species. Some of the mutuations will be benign and others less so, but the vaccines have been created to deal with changes in the spike proteins.

Not everyone needs to be vaccinated for coronavirus right now, but adults who do not have specific reasons why they should not be immunised should be immunised.

This is amazing.

I haven't lived in the UK since 2007 and I was still aware that large groups of people were offered the flu vaccine every year.

And that pensions exist.

And that you don't have to give up work and live off benefits each time you get pregnant.

I'm still confused what your objection is to having the vaccine? You've said you're not antivax and have had other vaccines, you're just not sure you should have it yourself because someone in a developing country isn't being vaccinated?

Donate to a global vaccination programme then.

You not having the vaccine won't help anyone. You not having the vaccine means you are more likely to pass it to someone else.

Vaccines "working" means reducing the spread and causing less serious disease. The vaccines work.

Yes we may all have to have boosters. But why is that worse than allowing the disease to spread?

OP I think that having the vaccination to protect yourself and the people you come into contact with - EVEN IF it's not a long-lasting solution - still makes sense, does it not?

And chances are it IS a longer term solution.

This solution will allow business to reopen and the economy to improve, people in care homes to have visitors, I can now visit my family for the first time in 6+ months.

Also as a pp said:

I don’t understand your argument that there’s more chances for mutation of the virus with social distancing? There’s a potential for the virus to mutate every time it enters a new host. So whether 100 people catch it gradually over the course of a month or in one big mass event one evening that’s still 100 chances for the virus to mutate isn’t it?

Experts believe the virus is more likely to mutate in people who have it severely / for longer.

The vaccine is meant to reduce the severity and length of those who do still get Covid.

In theory then, the vaccine could prevent the speed of mutations.

@Aqua55

I get better phone reception now I've had the vax. Worth it for that alone.

Now, now, don't torment the inmates...