Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

AZ vaccine gives better-than-expected 90% reduction in cases

Robert Cuffe

BBC head of statistics

ReutersCopyright: Reuters
Public Health England has just published real-world data - as opposed to those from clinical trials - suggesting having a second dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine lifts its efficacy from about 60% to 90%.

We had already seen data on the effectiveness of the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine, but these are the first to estimate the effects of the second dose of the AZ vaccine.

The study, published by PHE, looked at cases of coronavirus detected in the community among those aged over 65 (the first groups to be vaccinated).

It found that, a fortnight after the first dose of the Pfizer or AZ vaccine, the odds of getting symptomatic Covid fell by nearly 60%, consistent with previous reports.

After a second dose of Pfizer or AZ, cases were about 90% lower than among those who had not been vaccinated.

These results are better than those observed in the clinical trials and those assumed by scientific modellers supporting the most recent unlocking.

As for "we can't keep jumping to it as a solution" -since when have we "jumped" to anything as a solution to Covid in the UK? We have done the complete opposite of that and suffered the consequences.

I think this is a pertinent point. We’re working with a recent history of the government imposing lockdowns too late and in at least one case lifting one far too early.

Perhaps if our government could be trusted to make timely decisions there wouldn’t need to be so much scrutiny from the public. I don’t buy into this bs that they couldn’t possibly have know how bad things could get each time because lots of others - general public, scientists, medics - seemed to twig way before they did and they’re the ones with all the information!

@Cornettoninja

As for "we can't keep jumping to it as a solution" -since when have we "jumped" to anything as a solution to Covid in the UK? We have done the complete opposite of that and suffered the consequences.

I think this is a pertinent point. We’re working with a recent history of the government imposing lockdowns too late and in at least one case lifting one far too early.

Perhaps if our government could be trusted to make timely decisions there wouldn’t need to be so much scrutiny from the public. I don’t buy into this bs that they couldn’t possibly have know how bad things could get each time because lots of others - general public, scientists, medics - seemed to twig way before they did and they’re the ones with all the information!

Cornetto do you think Wales benefitted from early action? A short shock was the narrative iirc

@AlecTrevelyan006

Nationally the seven day average of positive cases has increased by a whopping 0.2%

Meanwhile deaths and hospital admissions continue to fall

Good the latter is key. Here’s to it holding

In fairness the Indian variant is not in most of the UK. I hope it will all be okay and in a few weeks time we will be saying it is fine. But I think it is too early to tell.
Yes the Brazil variant may have killed children and young people in Brazil because of the health system there. But lets be honest that is just a guess. It is that variant I am most worried about. If virtually everyone is vaccinated by the time it takes hold in the UK we may be fine though.

Does anyone really love lockdown? Seriously?

"The main panic appears to be from the lockdown lovers today. If they can’t wail “But what about VARIANTS” every fucking day they’ll have nothing left."

Such a childish statement. I imagine there are very few people who actually love lockdown.

@Brokensharted

The main panic appears to be from the lockdown lovers today. If they can’t wail “But what about VARIANTS” every fucking day they’ll have nothing left.

Nobody fucking loves lockdown!!

Sorry for the swearing, but honestly I'm so sick of this nonsense from people who seem to think they are so daring or cool or whatever.

Nationally the seven day average of positive cases has increased by a whopping 0.2%

Sounds like pretty good news - especially with the surge testing going on

Meanwhile deaths and hospital admissions continue to fall

Even better news; let's just hope it continues, or if numbers do go up that it isn't "a surge" (the red top media variety)

@MarshaBradyo in all honesty, I really haven’t paid that much attention to Wales (I’m really sorry if that offends anyone - in my defence I’ve been tracking a couple of different countries where friends/family are) so don’t really feel able to comment on that situation off the top of my head.

I stand by my comment regarding England though. There have been a few opportunities for the cabinet to be proactive rather than reactive and they’ve missed 95% of them (obviously a statistic pulled from my arse but I reckon it’s close).

@brondary

Does anyone really love lockdown? Seriously?

Jeff Bezos? Tbf he does look like a comedy evil genius.

@brondary

Does anyone really love lockdown? Seriously?

I think some did it more difficult than others, like anything really

I know I find it awful enough to not want to go there again

Cornetto I’m not sure the firebreak as it was called did much. It was early, and I remember huge calls for us to do same in England, but it didn’t have much of an effect on numbers medium term and more restrictions had to be re-introduced

Must admit a bit hazy so if anyone from Wales things this is not quite right feel free to correct

I do not want another lockdown.
But I would rather wait for a bit for restrictions to ease than do this too soon and end up in a lockdown.

I’m not sure the firebreak as it was called did much. It was early, and I remember huge calls for us to do same in England, but it didn’t have much of an effect on numbers medium term and more restrictions had to be re-introduced

From memory the discussion of firebreaks around the time was mostly as a compromise for the economy and how we ended up with a set-in-stone end date for lockdown 2. It’s all complete madness (imho of course) in the context of a biological disaster.

I’ve quoted Dr Fauci before (although I’m pretty sure he was paraphrasing someone else) but right at the beginning of all this in 2020 he said that any successful action we take will look like an overreaction. He was absolutely spot on but unfortunately this has very much gone over the head of many, many people. General public and leaders alike. One of the UK’s few successes was the vaccination procurement and if people look at how much we spent and purchased before we were even sure they worked it was a complete ‘over reaction’.

I see that the coronavirus healthcare data has finally been updated (last time I looked, it ended at 09/05).

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Bolton%20NHS%20Foundation%20Trust

Healthcare in Bolton NHS Foundation Trust
Patients admitted to hospital
16-05-2021 3
15-05-2021 2
14-05-2021 3
13-05-2021 5
12-05-2021 3
11-05-2021 4
10-05-2021 5
09-05-2021 3

When should we expect to see the effects of the latest variant of doom?

@Cornettoninja

I’m not sure the firebreak as it was called did much. It was early, and I remember huge calls for us to do same in England, but it didn’t have much of an effect on numbers medium term and more restrictions had to be re-introduced

From memory the discussion of firebreaks around the time was mostly as a compromise for the economy and how we ended up with a set-in-stone end date for lockdown 2. It’s all complete madness (imho of course) in the context of a biological disaster.

I’ve quoted Dr Fauci before (although I’m pretty sure he was paraphrasing someone else) but right at the beginning of all this in 2020 he said that any successful action we take will look like an overreaction. He was absolutely spot on but unfortunately this has very much gone over the head of many, many people. General public and leaders alike. One of the UK’s few successes was the vaccination procurement and if people look at how much we spent and purchased before we were even sure they worked it was a complete ‘over reaction’.

No I don’t think it’s an overreaction although I get the argument.

More a discussion on timing. Many say early is better - I’m not sure looking at Wales and EE. Unless you manage it well after you just delay surge.

Patrick Valance speaks on it better than I do, no doubt. But I get his logic.

@Brokensharted

The main panic appears to be from the lockdown lovers today. If they can’t wail “But what about VARIANTS” every fucking day they’ll have nothing left.

That's just cretinous hyperbole.

unless you manage it well after you just delay surge

Essentially I agree, although I would say that there is a certain amount of control over the size of the surge. I think unless the target is zero covid there has to be an acceptance of surges but these can be controlled to an extent. I believe the government overestimated what we could control and under reacted to signs that it was out of control (which many sources highlighted at the time).

In the current context of the Indian variant I think that currently they’re doing a good job, however and back to my earlier point, I think there are a lot of people (myself included) nervous that should the numbers in areas of concern start indicating they really shouldn’t go ahead in June for the sake of popular opinion they will because that’s what they’ve done before.

It’s just been announced that cases of the Indian Variant have increased 160% in the past week, so it should be very concerning.

@Cornettoninja

unless you manage it well after you just delay surge

Essentially I agree, although I would say that there is a certain amount of control over the size of the surge. I think unless the target is zero covid there has to be an acceptance of surges but these can be controlled to an extent. I believe the government overestimated what we could control and under reacted to signs that it was out of control (which many sources highlighted at the time).

In the current context of the Indian variant I think that currently they’re doing a good job, however and back to my earlier point, I think there are a lot of people (myself included) nervous that should the numbers in areas of concern start indicating they really shouldn’t go ahead in June for the sake of popular opinion they will because that’s what they’ve done before.

I don’t think they will because four conditions have to be met.

However there will be pressure from MPs and I’m not up to speed with voting considerations. Maybe they won’t have numbers nor get to vote, not sure.

The other thing that made me think timing is tricky was North England. There was a fair bit of criticism on here saying that original lockdown was timed for London / South which is why they had a surge after. So this made me question whether the earlier (on their curve) was as good.

It’s just questions though, not saying I know for sure just not totally up with we reacted late

Report on PM today from Chris Whatshisname, the Naked Science one.
Real time study of 3,000 healthcare workers in India has reported that the AZ vaccine is 97% effective against the so-called India variant. Excellent news.

Did they break it down any more than that @DenisetheMenace? They usually break it down into efficacy percentages against mild illness/severe/fatalities - I appreciate they might not have gone that in-depth yet through.

@MarshaBradyo, I agree that it’s all very open for debate and dependent on personal interpretation. I haven’t seen much to sway my current take on the situation but I’m absolutely open to the possibility of this changing. While I think it’s important that hindsight takes into account the facts/mood of the time, it’s important to have a true analysis of actual events. I’m very interested to see how everything is presented in the future.