Indian variant - why the panic?

[Doireallyneedaname]

Multiple news stories over the last 24 hours stating that the vaccines are effective against it; as well as lab studies last week showing the same, yet the panic continues. Why?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57134181

@TheKeatingFive

What you mean?

We’d take the possibility of a school closure due to bubble bursting over the certainty of schools closing due to policy. I can never understand why that’s not obvious to people.

One extra week of being shut or three months as happened last time.

No one believes they’d only be shut for a week. Trust was blown a long time ago.

You obviously don't live in an area where there have been a lot of cases if you think a bubble shutting is a remote possibility if there is a more transmissible variant. My DC was at home for a total of six weeks in the first term of this year due to bubbles closing and then everything was shut for three months including schools. If they had made an effort to stop transmission of the Kent variant in the first place by shutting schools that might not have happened.

@ajandjjmum

There's alcohol in bread and bananas?!! Every day's a school day here.

In lots of food, because of fermentation. There is also small amounts of radioactive potassium in bananas too!

You obviously don't live in an area where there have been a lot of cases if you think a bubble shutting is a remote possibility

I never said it was a remote possibility, I said I’d take the possibility of it over the certainty of it.

@TheKeatingFive

You obviously don't live in an area where there have been a lot of cases if you think a bubble shutting is a remote possibility

I never said it was a remote possibility, I said I’d take the possibility of it over the certainty of it.

You would take the possibility of months of closure so there was no certainty of a week's closure? I wouldn't. The former is far more disruptive.

You would take the possibility of months of closure so there was no certainty of a week's closure? I wouldn't.

Firstly, there’s no ‘certainty’ of a weeks closure as you well know. If you close them now, I’d be very pessimistic that the unions would be persuaded to go back this side of summer. So no fucking thank you.

Secondly, your catastrophising situation doesn’t stack up as we’re close to the summer anyway.

In any event, why would we close schools, with the vulnerable as protected as they can be?

@Belladonna12 I don’t know why you’re getting all aerated about schools - there is no way Bojo is going to close them when deaths and hospital admissions are so low.

Let’s face it he didn’t want to close them in January!

@TheKeatingFive

You would take the possibility of months of closure so there was no certainty of a week's closure? I wouldn't.

Firstly, there’s no ‘certainty’ of a weeks closure as you well know. If you close them now, I’d be very pessimistic that the unions would be persuaded to go back this side of summer. So no fucking thank you.

Secondly, your catastrophising situation doesn’t stack up as we’re close to the summer anyway.

In any event, why would we close schools, with the vulnerable as protected as they can be?

I don't think the unions have much say over whether schools are open or shut. It's not catastrophising to say that schools could be shut again for months. That's already happened twice and it could easily happen again. The vulnerable are not fully protected yet as many people in their 50s and 60s have only had one vaccination. We have no certainty regarding how effective vaccination is yet anyway. If it's not as effective, and this variant is more transmissible than cases, hospitalisations and deaths could rise rapidly particularly in people in their 50s and 60s. There are too many uncertainties with this variant and the wait-and-see approach has cost us a lot, not just in terms of deaths but also the impact on the economy. It would be better to clamp down on this now.

[quote Allmyarseandpeggymartin]@Belladonna12 I don’t know why you’re getting all aerated about schools - there is no way Bojo is going to close them when deaths and hospital admissions are so low.

Let’s face it he didn’t want to close them in January![/quote]
Bubbles are shitting now in some areas though.

shitting shutting

[quote Allmyarseandpeggymartin]@Belladonna12 I don’t know why you’re getting all aerated about schools - there is no way Bojo is going to close them when deaths and hospital admissions are so low.

Let’s face it he didn’t want to close them in January![/quote]
I'm only talking about shutting them in areas where cases have suddenly shot up so that they can get a handle on it before it spreads everywhere.

It's not catastrophising to say that schools could be shut again for months.

They’ve less than two months left to go! Or do you think they’ll be shut in September?

We can't keep 'clamping down' for the possibility that every new strain might cause more hospitalisations. The constant opening and closing would have an even bigger impact on the economy. Sometimes a wait and see approach is the most sensible option. Early indications from studies are that the vaccine still offers some protection against the Indian variant, as does previous infection. Overall cases, hospitalisations and deaths are still falling even though not everyone has been vaccinated.

Cases in Bolton teenagers have tripled in a week. How many schools in affected areas do you think won’t have been shut by public health in 2 months?

How many schools in affected areas do you think won’t have been shut by public health in 2 months?

No idea. But if they close them now ‘just in case’ they’ll all be shut and I doubt many people would have any confidence they’ll be open before September.

If it's not as effective, and this variant is more transmissible than cases, hospitalisations and deaths could rise rapidly particularly in people in their 50s and 60s.

Full vaccination is holding up. Ramping up vaxxing in this age group for anyone who hasn’t had a second dose is an infinitely more sensible strategy than closing schools.

@TheKeatingFive

If it's not as effective, and this variant is more transmissible than cases, hospitalisations and deaths could rise rapidly particularly in people in their 50s and 60s.

Full vaccination is holding up. Ramping up vaxxing in this age group for anyone who hasn’t had a second dose is an infinitely more sensible strategy than closing schools.

We don't know for sure that is holding up yet. There wouldn't be so much concern if we did! Ramping up vaccination isn't going to be immediately effective as it takes a few weeks to work fully. As I said I'm only suggesting shutting schools in the areas of high transmission a week early both to reduce transmissions and to give time for the vaccinations to work. The schools are likely to shut anyway in those areas and it is better to do it before everyone one is infected than afterwards.

We don't know for sure that is holding up yet

It’s looking good so far. Not just here, but globally.

The schools are likely to shut anyway in those areas

All schools won’t close, don’t be daft. And absolutely no one believes your ‘week’.

@bumbleymummy

We can't keep 'clamping down' for the possibility that every new strain might cause more hospitalisations. The constant opening and closing would have an even bigger impact on the economy. Sometimes a wait and see approach is the most sensible option. Early indications from studies are that the vaccine still offers some protection against the Indian variant, as does previous infection. Overall cases, hospitalisations and deaths are still falling even though not everyone has been vaccinated.

Arguably the wait-and-see approach is what has led to the UK not doing well in the pandemic. Perhaps if there had been a more proactive approach that ultimately would have been fewer infections and the economy would not have suffered as much.

Being early is not always the best path, if you don’t exit out we’ll

Eg Eastern Europe early clamp down then you just shift the wave back. Also Wales firebreak wasn’t that effective

On schools, at some point the strategy needs to shift so it’s not so disrupting for students. Not sure when those who want to close them (again!) would be ok with this shift.

@TheKeatingFive

We don't know for sure that is holding up yet

It’s looking good so far. Not just here, but globally.

The schools are likely to shut anyway in those areas

All schools won’t close, don’t be daft. And absolutely no one believes your ‘week’.

Why is it daft to think all schools around the country might end up closing until the end of term if they don't get on top of this? Why do people have to believe it's just for a week if they do it now in areas with high transmission? Maybe if they had shut them two weeks before the Christmas holidays last year rather than officially leaving them open (even though bubbles shutting everywhere) everything wouldn't have been shut down for months afterwards.

@Belladonna12 But in this situation, where we have vaccinated the majority of the population who are most likely to end up in hospital, it makes sense to use the wait and see approach. Lockdown was a last resort, in the absence of a vaccine, to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. We can't keep jumping to it as a solution 'just in case' every time a new variant emerges.

Surely all the old and vulnerable have been vaccinated now - they won’t catch it so what’s the problem ?

Vulnerable teachers are vaccinated and students and teachers should be doing twice weekly lateral flow tests so I see no reason why schools would need to close.

Why is it daft to think all schools around the country might end up closing until the end of term if they don't get on top of this?

We’ve never been in a position where ALL schools had significant numbers of cases simultaneously. C’mon now.

Why do people have to believe it's just for a week if they do it now in areas with high transmission?

Because that’s literally never happened before. It’s always been longer than billed.

We are in a different phase of the pandemic now with high vaccination rates. We’re going to be dealing with new variants until the whole world is vaxxed, which is probably 5 years minimum, perhaps never.

We can’t be implementing ‘just in case’ closures for the next five years, every time a new variant raises its head. That’s just not sustainable.

I'm in Singapore where they just shut schools again, to my dismay, and we have a partial lockdown.
If this Indian Variant can get past Singaporean systems that have been working for months then you can be sure it's really really contagious and now is the right time for caution from the UK government.