To think they should pause meeting inside

[LastOrdersMaura]

In the last person to be overly concerned about the virus but the SAGE minutes show that there is something to be concerned about.
I think the economy can't take anymore and I really feel for all the businesses who are gearing up for opening on Monday. My friends cafe hasn't opened since October last year so she missed all the Christmas trade and has no outside seating. Her customer base are mostly elderly so unlikely to come out for takeaway. It would likely bankrupt her to hold off opening any longer.

The mixing in people's houses seems the least destructive part to hold off on. I know a lot of people have been looking forward to it but prolonged contact in a small space seems to be a major factor in transmission.
I'm looking forward to seeing others for a drink in their houses but I can see how it can go wrong. Most people aren't able to go for a meal in a restaurant every night of the week. I could however go to a different friends house every day, even multiple friends houses! Then if that friend does the same, that's a lot of indoor mixing. We have small children so the likelihood of them SD'ing is unlikely. Then there's older siblings at school, working parents, nursery etc leading to an increase in transmission. I feel restaurants are quite safe in comparison.
Those who want to will mix indoors anyway but it might make some think twice or not accept as many invitations. It has no impact on the economy. Yes it will have an impact on mental health but I think we're screwed on that part anyway. Anxiety is through the roof!
I'm fully expecting people to tell me to fuck off but this is the most sensible decision that BJ could make in light of the new variant. I'm not a lockdown lover, frankly as I haven't had a lockdown due to working out of the house throughout. I just want this to be over, properly over, not just kicking the can down the road.

Here’s an interesting article breaking down the 50% more transmissible headline and putting it into context - very reassuring

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57150871

You don't think that after over a year of this that compliance might start to change? No, because fundamentally the majority of people do care about others/nation/society. They were raised that way and they won't just lose that about themselves.

UK compliance has been pretty stable.

If people were asked to lockdown but didn't think it was for national benefit, compliance would be different.

[quote Jobconfused]Here’s an interesting article breaking down the 50% more transmissible headline and putting it into context - very reassuring

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57150871[/quote]
I agree with all the analysis in that article - but it doesn't reassure me really because I think the government should have e.g. kept masks in schools out of caution until we do know.

What makes me most nervous is the government is not following the data, they have a hope approach which has caused so many problems before. They are not learning, which is what we need them to do.

I think it is horribly risky to allow overnight home visits before we know, although I can understand wanting to open pubs etc.

Good article @Jobconfused
Especially the part highlighting how much these ‘experts’ and critics get wrong. Yet people quote the modelling as fact.

The wisest humans focus on the best outcome

They do indeed - the best outcome for the majority, that wellknown philosophy known as ultiltarianism. The best outcome for the majority is living a normal life.

There were far fewer road accidents during lockdown, especially the first one, is that a good argument for permanent lockdown? We can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

@Blossomtoes

The wisest humans focus on the best outcome

They do indeed - the best outcome for the majority, that wellknown philosophy known as ultiltarianism. The best outcome for the majority is living a normal life.

There were far fewer road accidents during lockdown, especially the first one, is that a good argument for permanent lockdown? We can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

This, agree with @Blossomtoes completely.

Multiple flights into UK from India today, why the hell should we lock down further when it's clear th government are taking pee.

@Againstmachine as it's now a Red country don't they have to go straight to the quarantine hotels now though?

Yes but cancel them completely if it's that dangerous.

And if any UK citizens over there well then sorry but we shouldn't let it keep going.

@Blossomtoes

The wisest humans focus on the best outcome

They do indeed - the best outcome for the majority, that wellknown philosophy known as ultiltarianism. The best outcome for the majority is living a normal life.

There were far fewer road accidents during lockdown, especially the first one, is that a good argument for permanent lockdown? We can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

If we were to take a utilitarian approach (which we won't), it is pretty clearly that having an overhwelmed NHS would bring greater harm than good.

@Againstmachine

Multiple flights into UK from India today, why the hell should we lock down further when it's clear th government are taking pee.

You do know that Moston these flights will be carrying cargo like medicines and even vaccines.

Sorry, utilitarianist

"You do know that Moston these flights will be carrying cargo like medicines and even vaccines"

No these were the passenger flights.

If we were to take a utilitarian approach (which we won't), it is pretty clearly that having an overhwelmed NHS would bring greater harm than good

But we are taking a utilitarian approach, our entire society is based on it. We’re not going to have an overwhelmed NHS, there are currently less than 1,000 people in hospital with covid. Far fewer than with cancer, heart attacks or strokes. What will overwhelm the NHS is the backlog of very sick people built up over the last 15 months.

@Blossomtoes

If we were to take a utilitarian approach (which we won't), it is pretty clearly that having an overhwelmed NHS would bring greater harm than good

But we are taking a utilitarian approach, our entire society is based on it. We’re not going to have an overwhelmed NHS, there are currently less than 1,000 people in hospital with covid. Far fewer than with cancer, heart attacks or strokes. What will overwhelm the NHS is the backlog of very sick people built up over the last 15 months.

The SAGE minutes describe the concern that this variant could cause a wave that would overwhelm the NHS. That is not to say it will happen, but we are not yet informed enough to know what the transmissibility and impact of the variant is.

The number of covid patients in hospital today is not relevant, as you well know. It is the growth and the trajectory that is what matters.

Politics trumps utilitarianism IMO.

Oh, please stop wittering on about the SAGE minutes! Its members can’t even agree among themselves.

Indian variant: Why is UK taking a risk with the variant? www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57150871

@Againstmachine

"You do know that Moston these flights will be carrying cargo like medicines and even vaccines"

No these were the passenger flights.

Which also carry cargo. At the moment most flights have hardly any passengers and are filling up with cargo..wanted these flights to continue.

If there is cargo need there is options.

@Againstmachine

If there is cargo need there is options.

Yes, the spare space on nearly empty flights. There are still people travelling for permitted reasons whether you like it or not.

Permitted reasons are weddings christenings ect , I'd understand essential workers but it ain't.

[quote Blossomtoes]Oh, please stop wittering on about the SAGE minutes! Its members can’t even agree among themselves.

Indian variant: Why is UK taking a risk with the variant? www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57150871[/quote]
They agreed well enough to settle on the minutes.

You can deny the possibilities if you like but the situation we are in is that your assertion that 'we are not going to have an overwhelmed NHS' is just an expression of the hopes inside your head. It could go either way.

They agreed well enough to settle on the minutes

Minutes are a record of a meeting. Nobody agrees them. It’s mighty strange that almost every member of SAGE seems to have a different opinion when interviewed or quoted.

We’re going to have to go some for the NHS to be overwhelmed when more people are being vaccinated every day and the numbers in hospital are simultaneously falling. Not very logical or evidence based, is it?

@Blossomtoes

They agreed well enough to settle on the minutes

Minutes are a record of a meeting. Nobody agrees them. It’s mighty strange that almost every member of SAGE seems to have a different opinion when interviewed or quoted.

We’re going to have to go some for the NHS to be overwhelmed when more people are being vaccinated every day and the numbers in hospital are simultaneously falling. Not very logical or evidence based, is it?

Well, I'm sure you know best. I mean it is all just commonsense isn't it?

I mean it is all just commonsense isn't it?

It is. It’s a shame it’s in such short supply.

The finest advocate of commonsense was Ann Widdicombe. She would have shown Covid a thing or two. She wouldn't have stood for any of this epidemiological nonsense.