To think they should pause meeting inside

[LastOrdersMaura]

In the last person to be overly concerned about the virus but the SAGE minutes show that there is something to be concerned about.
I think the economy can't take anymore and I really feel for all the businesses who are gearing up for opening on Monday. My friends cafe hasn't opened since October last year so she missed all the Christmas trade and has no outside seating. Her customer base are mostly elderly so unlikely to come out for takeaway. It would likely bankrupt her to hold off opening any longer.

The mixing in people's houses seems the least destructive part to hold off on. I know a lot of people have been looking forward to it but prolonged contact in a small space seems to be a major factor in transmission.
I'm looking forward to seeing others for a drink in their houses but I can see how it can go wrong. Most people aren't able to go for a meal in a restaurant every night of the week. I could however go to a different friends house every day, even multiple friends houses! Then if that friend does the same, that's a lot of indoor mixing. We have small children so the likelihood of them SD'ing is unlikely. Then there's older siblings at school, working parents, nursery etc leading to an increase in transmission. I feel restaurants are quite safe in comparison.
Those who want to will mix indoors anyway but it might make some think twice or not accept as many invitations. It has no impact on the economy. Yes it will have an impact on mental health but I think we're screwed on that part anyway. Anxiety is through the roof!
I'm fully expecting people to tell me to fuck off but this is the most sensible decision that BJ could make in light of the new variant. I'm not a lockdown lover, frankly as I haven't had a lockdown due to working out of the house throughout. I just want this to be over, properly over, not just kicking the can down the road.

It is genuinely worrying that people seem not to understand why SAGE are saying what they are saying. Of course it is logical, as it is just maths.

It isn't certain, but it is definitely logical.

@picturesandpickles

And I call bollocks on SAGE. That just defies all logic.

Hilarious! You should let them see your workings, bet you could teach them a thing or two!

Apparently I could. It completely defies logic that a new variant could cause more hospital admissions in a largely vaccinated population than were caused by a completely new virus in an unvaccinated population.

If SAGE is right about this, all the time and money vaccination has cost has been completely wasted. A halfwit could work that out.

[quote SlipperyDippery]@picturesandpickles I agree that the quote from SAGE is worrying - did they give an indication of how long we would have to wait before moving to step 3 to avert that from happening? I haven’t seen any such timeframe reported[/quote]
Not that I have seen as an official thing.

I do wonder if the continuous reporting that vaccines might not be effective each time a variant crops up could undermine the vaccine program in the younger age group.

I am low risk (late 40s) and despite living with someone who was positive with symptoms and still didn't catch it I had the vaccine so we could finally get on with it. If I thought I would still be restricted so much I wouldn't have bothered having it given the risk benefits.

Thank you for responding picturesandpickles

I think that’s part of what concerns me about pausing the reopening. It would be indefinite. The current levels of restrictions are causing immeasurable harm and that does have to be part of the equation too.

@Blossomtoes

When I don't know about something, I look to the experts. I think you are drawing entirely the wrong conclusions, which are based on some misunderstandings.

If there are four people in the car, and only two have seat belts on, and the two without their belts on die in a crash - does that mean seatbelts are a waste of time?

The vaccines will protect those who have had them. They can't protect the people who haven't!

It is bad timing (although it was predicted as a real possibility that a variant could emerge mid-programme).

The reason more people didn't get hospitalised first and second wave was lockdown. Which remains an option this time.

@TheKeatingFive Nope Ive noticed it too. I think there are a few people who want us to take the hit for Johnsons latest fuck up. Well i wont. THIS IS ON HIM where is his personal responsibility.

And ppl wernt too bothered about killing others when they kept voting for disability benefit cuts. So im sick of the emotional blackmailing hypocritical bullshit that keeps getting trotted out

Whilst undoubtedly Johnson has seriously messed up over the variant/borders, I am not sure how it would benefit me or the nation to get into the sort of NHS mess SAGE are talking about - or are you saying SAGE themselves are providing political cover for him and the risk is not real, @MercyBooth?

are you saying SAGE themselves are providing political cover for him and the risk is not real

That’s entirely possible. Or it could just be wrong - it wouldn’t be the first time. As for the seat belt analogy ... 🙄🤷‍♀️

@picturesandpickles Dont you believe in the vaccines?

picturesandpickles

Your analogy doesn’t work in this case.

If 4 people were in a car that crashed and 2 people were wearing seatbelts Sages prediction is 3 would die and take a few more with them.

If they are saying figures as high as 60% of the population are going to get Covid in the coming months and 50% of the population have already been vaccinated and the figures are rising each day then I think you have to make your choice who to believe.

Do we continue with the vaccination program which seems to be bringing the infection rate figures down to a more manageable level or do we believe Sages model in which case the vaccination program is a waste of time if it doesn’t protect people from getting the disease

@Bythemillpond

picturesandpickles

Your analogy doesn’t work in this case.

If 4 people were in a car that crashed and 2 people were wearing seatbelts Sages prediction is 3 would die and take a few more with them.

If they are saying figures as high as 60% of the population are going to get Covid in the coming months and 50% of the population have already been vaccinated and the figures are rising each day then I think you have to make your choice who to believe.

Do we continue with the vaccination program which seems to be bringing the infection rate figures down to a more manageable level or do we believe Sages model in which case the vaccination program is a waste of time if it doesn’t protect people from getting the disease

Yeah, I think this is all quite , none of this is based in reality.

Don’t forget there are so many other things you can die of other than Covid.

Dh is supposed to go for scans every 3 months because he has cancer. It is supposed to be a preventative measure as they can snip away at any polyps that shoot up.
He hasn’t had a scan for nearly a year.

@Bythemillpond

picturesandpickles

Your analogy doesn’t work in this case.

If 4 people were in a car that crashed and 2 people were wearing seatbelts Sages prediction is 3 would die and take a few more with them.

If they are saying figures as high as 60% of the population are going to get Covid in the coming months and 50% of the population have already been vaccinated and the figures are rising each day then I think you have to make your choice who to believe.

Do we continue with the vaccination program which seems to be bringing the infection rate figures down to a more manageable level or do we believe Sages model in which case the vaccination program is a waste of time if it doesn’t protect people from getting the disease

Sorry whaaaaaaatt?

[quote MercyBooth]@picturesandpickles Dont you believe in the vaccines?[/quote]
What do you mean by believe?

Who doesn;t believe in them? They have been factored into the figures that SAGE have modelled.

The problem with predicting doom and gloom and then it doesn’t happen is after a while no one takes any notice.

I don't think it's difficult to understand the SAGE report clearly refers to vaccines.
We need though time for the programme to continue, too many are yet to receive the first jab yet...

Right now i am far more scared of living than i am of dying.

Today 11:27 Puttingouthefirewithgasoline

I don't see how we can avoid ending up in a harsher lock down, we are still in lock down now.
It's seeded, it's here, many more from the India and other red countries are arriving as we speak with no more checks than a... We will trust you...“

Of for goodness’ sake, just stop it, please!
Yes of course it’s here, but all available data indicates that vaccines are very effective against the Indian (and other) variants. There can be millions of infections: if they don’t lead to serious illness, the number is irrelevant.

After shielding for over a year, we shall be doing everything we safely can just as soon as our youngest (18) is fully vaccinated in July. We won’t be going to restaurants, cinemas etc. but we shall must certainly be seeing our loved ones. We shall continue mask wearing, SD in public places, sanitising etc. for as long as is required. If we are to believe the scientists though (which I do), with both vaccines we are extremely unlikely to become seriously ill with Covid or to infect others (especially as we see a limited number of others in “normal” circumstances anyway).

My physicist/mathematician husband worked it out to be a less than 4% chance of serious illness, based on current data and we’ll happily take that.
I’ve survived cancer, he has a rare, life threatening genetic disorder, any infection could set an episode off so we behave with caution as a matter of course. That’s life though: the alternative is locking ourselves away for years and we aren’t willing to live like that. We’ve both a higher chance of being killed in an RTA, now we’re vaccinated, as have most vaccinated people.

@Blossomtoes

are you saying SAGE themselves are providing political cover for him and the risk is not real

That’s entirely possible. Or it could just be wrong - it wouldn’t be the first time. As for the seat belt analogy ... 🙄🤷‍♀️

Happy for you to correct the seatbelt analogy - my understanding of what was said is that the vaccine programme is useless because those who haven't yet been vaccinated are still at risk - I do not understand this point.

We are mid-way through the programme, when it is finished it will be different.

Those that haven't been vaccinated are at low risk of getting severely ill with the disease.

I don't get all the hand wringing about this. I have had one vaccine but quite frankly even if I hadn't my risk is still low to end up in hospital and lower to die.

Sounds very tone deaf to suggest socuaoising in resturants can stay but not people meeting in homes.

Essentially, the rich who can afford to go out frequently will see their friends and relatives.
This who cannot afford meals out have to brave the horrible rainy weather or remain isolated for another x months…

@Geraldinethegiraffe

Sounds very tone deaf to suggest socuaoising in resturants can stay but not people meeting in homes.

Essentially, the rich who can afford to go out frequently will see their friends and relatives.
This who cannot afford meals out have to brave the horrible rainy weather or remain isolated for another x months…

The problem is that transmission happens more in private homes.

Whilst it would be a pisser if people on lower incomes couldn't afford to go out for meals, it is also a pisser they are more at risk of covid.

The rich are less likely to catch covid full stop.

I think that the relaxing of restrictions should be put on hold while we find out more about this new strain. But with this government never reacting quickly enough (including the madness of
allowing flights from India) I would assume it won't happen yet.

@picturesandpickles
I think oart of why those on lower incomes are more at risk of catching covid, even during lockdown, is because they are doing jobs that put them at risk (eg in supermarkets or supply chain roles, taking public transport to get around)
I don’t think putting more restrictions on their social time is the answer while the rich whi are at lower risk can emjoy life.
The best way to go is education to ensure people wash hands frequently, open windows, wear nasks etc - and for employers to keep investing in making work places safe, government to invest in making public transport safe (instead of all the farcical measures like stamp duty holidays, eat out to help out, etc that again though well intended help only a relatively well off minority)