To think they should pause meeting inside

[LastOrdersMaura]

In the last person to be overly concerned about the virus but the SAGE minutes show that there is something to be concerned about.
I think the economy can't take anymore and I really feel for all the businesses who are gearing up for opening on Monday. My friends cafe hasn't opened since October last year so she missed all the Christmas trade and has no outside seating. Her customer base are mostly elderly so unlikely to come out for takeaway. It would likely bankrupt her to hold off opening any longer.

The mixing in people's houses seems the least destructive part to hold off on. I know a lot of people have been looking forward to it but prolonged contact in a small space seems to be a major factor in transmission.
I'm looking forward to seeing others for a drink in their houses but I can see how it can go wrong. Most people aren't able to go for a meal in a restaurant every night of the week. I could however go to a different friends house every day, even multiple friends houses! Then if that friend does the same, that's a lot of indoor mixing. We have small children so the likelihood of them SD'ing is unlikely. Then there's older siblings at school, working parents, nursery etc leading to an increase in transmission. I feel restaurants are quite safe in comparison.
Those who want to will mix indoors anyway but it might make some think twice or not accept as many invitations. It has no impact on the economy. Yes it will have an impact on mental health but I think we're screwed on that part anyway. Anxiety is through the roof!
I'm fully expecting people to tell me to fuck off but this is the most sensible decision that BJ could make in light of the new variant. I'm not a lockdown lover, frankly as I haven't had a lockdown due to working out of the house throughout. I just want this to be over, properly over, not just kicking the can down the road.

@NoMLMbots

You can pause anything you like; in fact, you can stay at home for the rest of the year if you want to but don't expect others to do it. Seriously 7 died from/with covid yesterday - only 7. There were 1000 in hospital with covid in the whole country - why on earth would we shut down life for that?

Get real - time to emerge and live again. Covid is going nowhere

Agreed , I think so many think that you shouldn’t go or see anyone until zero Covid . Yes the variant is a concern but they have been ramping up vaccine in that area . Stay home if your worried you can catch it going to work or the shop nobody is forcing any one to go to the pub or visit great aunt Jane .

no more dictatorship fuel by fear

definitely no covid denial on this thread...

I agree. If people have been offered the vaccine and won't take it then tough. Not going to restrict activity anymore for people who won't get vaccinated. It's their problem now - the evidence that vaccines work is there to see

I agree as far as it goes, but my concern is that the unvaccinated will still be treated using NHS beds and if sufficient numbers of unvaccinated people get ill, it’s a problem for us all.

I’m not saying pause the easing tomorrow. I’m just saying sadly it’s not as simple as saying it’s their risk because we will all suffer if this variant takes off in the unvaccinated.

@doubleshotespresso I see you've ignored the part where I stated that they're confident the vaccine will work against the India strain in favour of carrying on about not reopening tomorrow.

Can I ask, do you run a small independent business? No income for the best part of 14 months, our livelihood on the line and the government narrative littered with broken promises left right and centre about when we can and can't reopen? Do you know that bills such as council tax, utilities, and business insurance isn't paused just because of covid? And that we therefore have to try and support our families, try not to lose our homes, AND still cover our business expenses whilst closed? We're not all huge retail chains with a massive handout from the government you know, able to fallback on infinite funds. We're not all wanting Monday to go ahead just so we can sit inside a pub or go abroad or stay in a hotel. We want our livelihoods back.

No. Just no. They can fuck off.

I am seeing my parents in two weeks time for the first time since October. They live a 3 hour drive away and aren’t so young any more so a garden meet in the pissing down rain isn’t going to cut it.

I’ve stuck religiously to the rules (more fool me), didn’t even have a new baby support bubble when I could have had one. So even if they stop in door mixing I have reached the end of my tether now and will be meeting my parents inside my house.

We have already had 4 reported deaths

Four? A whole four? More people probably died in road accidents yesterday and far more will do so with the NHS becoming the NCS for the last year. This is the level of lunacy this is being reduced to.

The majority of ‘you do you’s’ on Covid are so near sighted. The reality is, the virus doesn’t care about the economy or wether you personally are vaccinated, or whether you have or have not seen your parents for 14 months.

We have a race on our hands. That race is between a virus that aims to spread and a vaccination program. The end of the race is a functioning healthcare system. If the virus wins, the healthcare system ceases to keep up with the situation and we are all in trouble. If the vaccination program wins we can keep ‘opening up’ and the health care system holds.

At the moment.... the unvaccinated among us are not safe. But there is room for us in ICU, if we need it. If our ‘opening’ policies dangerously precede the vaccination program, then we ll be unsafe and there may be no room for us in ICU. Sadly, the age profile of those suffering severe / long COVID may continue to become younger as the vaccination program continues to advance through the age groups. It would be nice if the older vaccinated people could act to keep younger unvaccinated people safe for a few more months. We need more data on the effect of vaccinated and unvaccinated people mixing.

At the moment.... the unvaccinated among us are not safe

They are. Why do you think they’re bottom of the vaccination queue? It’s because they’re least at risk.

@Blossomtoes

We have already had 4 reported deaths

Four? A whole four? More people probably died in road accidents yesterday and far more will do so with the NHS becoming the NCS for the last year. This is the level of lunacy this is being reduced to.

Presumably people do understand what this sentence means: If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks).

If you think that the peak could not be as bad because of vaccinations, you are wrong. The committee know precisely how many people have been vaccinated.

So yes, that is what they are saying - we are at risk of being able to do nothing but treat covid again, if these early warning signs are not dealt with.

No one has a crystal ball but the risk is clearly stated.

If you think that the peak could not be as bad because of vaccinations, you are wrong

In which case what’s the point of vaccination? We might as well not have bothered.

@BeardyButton

The majority of ‘you do you’s’ on Covid are so near sighted. The reality is, the virus doesn’t care about the economy or wether you personally are vaccinated, or whether you have or have not seen your parents for 14 months.

We have a race on our hands. That race is between a virus that aims to spread and a vaccination program. The end of the race is a functioning healthcare system. If the virus wins, the healthcare system ceases to keep up with the situation and we are all in trouble. If the vaccination program wins we can keep ‘opening up’ and the health care system holds.

At the moment.... the unvaccinated among us are not safe. But there is room for us in ICU, if we need it. If our ‘opening’ policies dangerously precede the vaccination program, then we ll be unsafe and there may be no room for us in ICU. Sadly, the age profile of those suffering severe / long COVID may continue to become younger as the vaccination program continues to advance through the age groups. It would be nice if the older vaccinated people could act to keep younger unvaccinated people safe for a few more months. We need more data on the effect of vaccinated and unvaccinated people mixing.

The previous lockdowns were to stop the vulnerable catching the virus and probably getting seriously ill and dying and the nhs would be overwhelmed by all these people getting seriously ill .The majority are now vaccinated we are not locking down to protect the young ones harsh as it sounds . Unless the vaccine doesn’t work we won’t lockdown. I’ve said previously I’ve had Covid it’s not nice I don’t want to get it again but I don’t support lockdown at all why to protect who ? To lockdown suggests the vaccine doesn’t protect us and isn’t that the point .

@NoMLMbots

*Lunacy to keep businesses shut, people off work, continue to drive debt through the roof, mental health issues because of a virus that affects average age 82 and most over 50 are now vaccinated!

YOu do you and let some of us live - no more dictatorship fuel by fear.*

Wow the covid denial here on this thread is really quite something, it is my desire for my immediate bubble and all of us to LIVE that causes me concern. We al want to get our lives back for goodness sake, get some perspective

If you have no faith in the vaccine, why have it? Some people on this thread are talking like it's still last March. Get with the programme folks.

I've had covid as have my family. It wasn't great but I've had worse. And I STILL say no more lockdown, no more 'just a few weeks'. The elderly and vulnerable are protected. If they still choose to stay inside - which is highly unlikely considering Bingo opens again next week - then fair enough. The rest of us need to crack on.

We al want to get our lives back for goodness sake, get some perspective

Oh, the irony!

@Blossomtoes

If you think that the peak could not be as bad because of vaccinations, you are wrong

In which case what’s the point of vaccination? We might as well not have bothered.

Because without the vaccinations it would be even worse! And as the vaccinations programs continue it will improve.

People seem to misunderstand two key things:

• the vaccine is not 100% effective
• many people are not currently vaccinated

Young people are more likely to catch covid as they are working and socialising more. They are not vaccinated. A small percentage will get hospitalised - but a small percentage of a big number is an issue. Once hopsitalised they stay there a long time. Potentially ICU fills up. Once that happens, the NHS has to stop treating other things.

Deaths in the older group will be lower due to vaccinations, every one is assuming the vaccines will limit deaths I think.

@Blossomtoes

If you think that the peak could not be as bad because of vaccinations, you are wrong

In which case what’s the point of vaccination? We might as well not have bothered.

But surely the people most likely to die or be seriously ill with covid have mostly been vaccinated, mostly fully vaccinated. Some lower down the priority groups may have only had one.

Obviously you'll have a minority who have refused it and you will have an even smaller vulnerable group who can't have it.

You will have a small percentage for who the vaccine doesn't work well enough for.

But this variant isn't known to be more dangerous at present, just likely to be more transmissible. So the younger groups, though may catch it, are likely to still not be seriously ill or die from it.

Number of cases on its own isn't a huge issue if they don't translate to serious illness or death.

In Bolton there are 23 cases of covid, 3 in icu/high dependency. 1 is reported to be fully vaccinated, 4 partially vaccinated (though we don't know how long past their vaccine date they are) and of the rest they are reported to be mainly of vaccine eligibility groups but for whatever reason haven't had vaccines.

As we are no longer in crisis with covid, like this time last year, we can admit covid patients without them being as seriously ill as they previously had to me. So those other 20 patients may well be ill, but not seriously/gravely so.

[quote KurtWilde]@doubleshotespresso I see you've ignored the part where I stated that they're confident the vaccine will work against the India strain in favour of carrying on about not reopening tomorrow.

Can I ask, do you run a small independent business? No income for the best part of 14 months, our livelihood on the line and the government narrative littered with broken promises left right and centre about when we can and can't reopen? Do you know that bills such as council tax, utilities, and business insurance isn't paused just because of covid? And that we therefore have to try and support our families, try not to lose our homes, AND still cover our business expenses whilst closed? We're not all huge retail chains with a massive handout from the government you know, able to fallback on infinite funds. We're not all wanting Monday to go ahead just so we can sit inside a pub or go abroad or stay in a hotel. We want our livelihoods back. [/quote]
No I don't run a small business, though it feels like it. I am ft carer to a 6 year old who has been denied access to school for a period of 18 months, but persevere daily with the inevitable battles this brings.

My immediate family are self employed with minimal financial govt support, it's not at all my wish for them, you or anybody to be at all out of pocket any further. But you know what it is possible to care about both the economy and human life. And I do. Deeply. it's sad to me on threads like this how few consider their right to "normal life" may not impact others negatively. The lack of grasp astounds me.
We all want livelihoods, access to education and medical services, careers, lives, jobs and most of all (for me) family visits. It is clear though we are about to put absolutely all of this on the line yet again because too many cannot see past reality.
Covid it seems eliminated all common sense and empathy.

Deaths in the older group will be lower due to vaccinations, every one is assuming the vaccines will limit deaths I think.

That’s the point isn’t it ? Nobody is saying that the vaccine will stop you catching it but it reduces it and it reduces the chance of you dying.
The younger ones haven’t been vaccinated because they are less at risk than older or vulnerable that’s why they haven’t had the vaccine. What do you want not to reopen until everyone’s had 2 vaccine ? that will never happen because some can’t/won’t have the vaccine.

every one is assuming the vaccines will limit deaths I think.

This is certainly what is being reported. Fully Vaccinated people are far less likely to become seriously ill or die. Greatly so, so far, it would seem.

Younger, non priory groups are already far less likely to be as seriously ill or die, even if unvaccinated.

We will never be able to prevent all covid deaths or serious illness from it. Even if every single person in the country was vaccinated.

At present the numbers aren't high enough to justify extra restrictions. I'm quite sure they are being monitored carefully to see what the rise in covid cases does, to see if it is later accompanied by a rise in deaths and serious illness, especially amongst vaccinated vulnerable groups.

People seem to misunderstand two key things:
- the vaccine is not 100% effective
- many people are not currently vaccinated

The Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective, A-Z slightly less.
Over 80% of the adult population is vaccinated, nearly 50% with two doses.

That means just 20% of the adult population is unvaccinated - the 20% at least risk of severe disease or death.

Now tell me you’re not catastrophising.

But this variant isn't known to be more dangerous at present, just likely to be more transmissible. So the younger groups, though may catch it, are likely to still not be seriously ill or die from it.

In wave one and wave two, what stopped the numbers of young people in hospital getting very high? Lockdown.

If this Indian variant causes wave three, what will stop the numbers of young people in hospital from getting very high? Erm...

A small percentage of younger people will be hospitalised. A small percentage of a big number is a lot of people. That is why SAGE are warning the hospitalisations could get very high. They have not said deaths. Older people die, younger people are hospitalised and kept in ICU for months. But older people are vaccinated.

Why did we lock down before? To prevent too many people being in ICU and the NHS getting overwhelmed.

@Blossomtoes

People seem to misunderstand two key things: - the vaccine is not 100% effective - many people are not currently vaccinated

The Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective, A-Z slightly less.
Over 80% of the adult population is vaccinated, nearly 50% with two doses.

That means just 20% of the adult population is unvaccinated - the 20% at least risk of severe disease or death.

Now tell me you’re not catastrophising.

The quote came from SAGE - I am not catastrophising, I am just explaining what was in the minutes.

Why do you think they wrote that?

The quote, again, is: If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)

Why do you think they think there is a risk of a higher peak of hospitalisations? Do you think they are not aware of the vaccination prorgamme?

@picturesandpickles they use the word IF

And likely no this will 100% happen

If you think that the peak could not be as bad because of vaccinations, you are wrong

Peak of what? Deaths or infections or hospital admissions?

If the vaccination programme doesn’t work then really we should open up and get on with things and hope for herd immunity.