Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

@MarshaBradyo

There’s talk of personal choice from MH so maybe not that far off.

We can split off into lockdown people and people happy to do normal stuff.

As long as the 'lockdown people' don't expect supports from the government or social distancing imposed to pander to their 'fears'.

I don’t think so Iced, well I hope not! Otherwise people will choose the money

But we can all choose whether to rejoin with concerts etc

Sounds better to me, I want us all to have freedom to take (very small risk) or not.

Covid is still very rife,in parts of the world,and new variants can spring up anywhere, despite many restrictions all over the place. Every single person does not follow the rules, there are lots of the hidden deniers all over..

Everyone is desperate to be unlocked now.,go places, see people etc. But some people will still have to be aware,that nobody can definitely have the knowledge. to say that this is it, the virus has disappeared,and you are safe from it now.World travel is very popular.and will be moreso very soon, You can't really put up dates, when you can do things,.The government can only take guesses on things like viruses.

@vegas888

They’ve known about this variant for some time so why weren’t flights from there stopped immediately. Even today we’ve had flights in from Mumbai landing at Heathrow. I thought travel was only allowed for work purposes so who are all these people on these flights. It’s sickening when many people have been adhering to the rules.🙄

Yes that’s exactly how I feel. It’s frustrating when we have been so restricted for so long and I really hope the fall out from this is that we don’t end up with delays to reopening everything.

@ClaudiaWankleman

I also think we need to rethink ‘Economy’ in a Covid reality though and not how things used to be.

What do you actually mean by this?

Should some people just never work again, at least not in their pre-Covid job?

Should we just give up on huge areas of the economy?

Perhaps in the next few months what I mean will become clearer, it all depends on how things progress, for better or worse. Some industries are not going to be viable long term if things continue as they are, no one is talking about it much because its the elephant in the room.

International Travel is one huge industry that is going to struggle to even remotely return to pre Covid days for the next few years at least. Leisure and entertainment are going to struggle too should we go in and out of further lockdowns and restrictions.

Will furlough be extended beyond September? If not difficult decisions will no doubt need to be made for industry still impacted. We’re on the right side of a long lockdown and vaccine program but the question is will this plateau hold out and for how long?

Taking away entertainment, travel and leisure is insanity to me. It’s the good stuff in life.

Not sure public consent would be there for that. Hope not sounds very depressing

Not sure public consent would be there for that.

Of course it isn’t. 😂

The majority don’t want to live like that.

@Watermelon222 if your mom were dying in Kent at the time the Kent variation was making headlines, do you think you should be allowed to go see her, if you quarantined for 10 days in a hotel and paid 2 k quid?
I am not Indian, but my Indian colleague has gone to Mumbai now to be with her mom dying of Covid, and she will be quarantined for 10 days on her way back at that cost. I am so sad for her, and sadder still that she will be vilified as "breaking the rules" when she is sticking to them. I suppose the rules only apply to people meeting each other for Xmas.

@vegas888 People who travel now are adhering to the rules. The rules allow them to travel if they quarantine.

Of course industries will be viable long term.

There will always be people who want to travel - to wherever they are allowed to go. There will always be people who want to go out for dinner, or to the theatre, or for a drink. The demand will always be there, even if people have to accept a risk for doing so.

The only thing that could kill off an industry as a result of COVID would be government putting in place restrictions on those business operating.

@MarshaBradyo

Taking away entertainment, travel and leisure is insanity to me. It’s the good stuff in life.

Not sure public consent would be there for that. Hope not sounds very depressing

They won’t be taken away but they will have to continue to adapt in order to survive. The fact that people are still desperate to holiday abroad despite knowing that’s how variants can be brought back here just makes my head spin a little. Our Covid Achilles heel is self indulgence.

It is depressing but equally depressing for me is when the government screw up their messaging so badly to keep public spirits high only to knock them back down again when reality strikes. Hopefully this outbreak is squashed to safely keep the planned reopening on schedule but only if that means we’re not trading a few weeks of indoor pub dining only to have to reverse course drastically.

Wise I don’t think indoor eating contributes very much iirc

Btw what is your idea of adapting to survive for those sectors?

I don't get why people thinkis lockdown or free for all. Equally vaccine work or it doesn't. Very few things in life are black and white.

The vaccine has an efficacy of >90% that is the fact. It won't work for everyone, so is not works or doesn't work.

With regards to mutations. We can reduce the virus populations size by being careful without complete lockdown. For example, kids are back on school (not in a lockdown), we know enclosed spaces is the ebst place to spread it, why remove masks? Masks are just common sense to reduce spread without reducing people's movement.

BTW, Most over 50s in the UK has not received a second dose, so not fully vaccinated. I know is an anecdote but the family in India I know personally 4 out 5 people in the household spen more than a week in hospital in oxygen masks. They all had the first jab. One died.

I know is an anecdote, but the point is that "only 564 people vaccinated got ill" is not a useful picture given the two factors above.

Believe the evidence or don't believe. Whatever. It really isn't important what any of you think. Time will tell and theres not much any of us can do about it. So the hostility towards the situation is futile. It is out of our hands and acceptance is the way to peace.

@MarshaBradyo in all honestly some sectors probably can’t adapt in a viable and profitable way so it might mean totally changing what they do and offer altogether.

I’d say if your business hasn’t been open at all in the last 12 months it’s probably a good idea to start looking at alternative ideas. The solutions are not going to be overnight success stories either, it’s going to be a long road of trial and error and I don’t have the answers. It’s very easy for me to say this on a forum I know, but the reality and enormity of this will be extremely difficult for many people and I don’t say it lightly.

But hoping things go back to how they were is not going to be of any use at all. Covid is a fucker that is more significant than we think and believing we can just live with it is dangerous.

Our strategy isn’t zero Covid. The scientists have all said we have to learn to live with it.

It’s not dangerous it’s a fact of life. Thank goodness we have very effective vaccines.

They won’t be taken away but they will have to continue to adapt in order to survive. The fact that people are still desperate to holiday abroad despite knowing that’s how variants can be brought back here just makes my head spin a little. Our Covid Achilles heel is self indulgence.

What you call 'self indulgence' is what other people call normal human activities which provide jobs for thousands of people.

Being permanently grim and condescending doesn't make you a better person.

@SonnetForSpring

Believe the evidence or don't believe. Whatever. It really isn't important what any of you think. Time will tell and theres not much any of us can do about it. So the hostility towards the situation is futile. It is out of our hands and acceptance is the way to peace.

You haven't provided any actual evidence though.

Just 'suggestions'.

Just 'suggestions'.

😂

Being very close to a group of people who have the Indian VOC I am expecting that there will be further lockdowns if it continues spreading, as most of them were double vaccinated yet still got COVID pretty badly. I did comment on another thread in relation to this a few days ago but got accused of lying that I had had an outbreak in my workplace and that I knew people who were very ill despite vaccination, some of which had been hospitalised on oxygen. I can’t prove it without seriously outing myself but it’s true and it’s very concerning. Unfortunately people only believe what suits them on here and gang up on you when you say what they don’t want to hear.

I know is an anecdote, but the point is that "only 564 people vaccinated got ill" is not a useful picture given the two factors above.

How is it not useful?

Only 0.003% of those vaccinated contracted the disease, in a population highly exposed to the virus, including the dreaded 'variant'. That's vastly more useful than an anecdote from someone on MN.

BBC news article:

People should stop panicking about every new variant - scientist
People need to "stop panicking" every time a new coronavirus variant is identified in the UK, a leading scientist has said, amid concern about the growing number of cases of the Indian variant.

Professor Robert Dingwall, who is a member of the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said that while the Indian variant may be capable of becoming the dominant variant in the UK, the risk of a surge in deaths or hospital admissions remains low.

Prof Dingwall, of the School of Social Sciences at Nottingham Trent University, told the PA news agency: "This variant seems to be better managed by the vaccines than the South African variant so that vaccinated people have only a very low risk of infection that is likely to be mild.

Because the correct statement is that 0.003% of FULLY vaccinated contracted the disease, and here in the Uk that figure is not great.

Without proper qualifying, it gives a false sense of safety to many that only had one dose.

I don't see anybody on any side of this arguing for incessant lockdowns.

There is a middle way.

-Get vaccinations done as fast as possible, targeting where most needed

-Unlock restrictions progressively, accepting we must wait the longest to be confident that it's again safe to have large, maskless crowds in indoor spaces. By waiting a little bit longer for that, in order to make sure the vaccines really are working as well as it seems, hopefully we can avoid any more full lockdowns. And surely there is enough enjoyment to be had while waiting through smaller, mostly outdoor gatherings with family and friends, especially as the weather improves.

-Continue using mass testing and self-isolation practices for people who test positive or have just come back from countries with much higher prevalence rates, the latter at least until we get the chance to see how well the vaccines work in the UK at preventing hospitalisation and deaths.

I am not a fan of this government at all, and look forward to the first opportunity to vote them out, but meanwhile it has to be acknowledged that the UK is one of the first large countries to have successfully rolled out a large-scale, fast vaccination program, and that should allow the UK to be among the first countries to get out of this COVID19 mess, if enough of us could just accept to walk but not run from these restrictions, occasionally slowing the pace but hopefully never having to go backwards.

@Lua

Because the correct statement is that 0.003% of FULLY vaccinated contracted the disease, and here in the Uk that figure is not great.

Without proper qualifying, it gives a false sense of safety to many that only had one dose.

Given that the first dose of the vaccine provides the vast bulk of the protection, what is your point? That those who have had only one dose might stand a 0.005% chance, rather than a 0.003% chance of getting the virus? And then only if they're exposed to high levels of the virus at work every day? That's cause for great concern in your book?

Not to mention that more and more people are become 'fully vaccinated' with every day that passes.

@Lollobrigida

“@Watermelon222 if your mom were dying in Kent at the time the Kent variation was making headlines, do you think you should be allowed to go see her, if you quarantined for 10 days in a hotel and paid 2 k quid?
I am not Indian, but my Indian colleague has gone to Mumbai now to be with her mom dying of Covid, and she will be quarantined for 10 days on her way back at that cost. I am so sad for her, and sadder still that she will be vilified as "breaking the rules" when she is sticking to them. I suppose the rules only apply to people meeting each other for Xmas.“

Of course in those circumstances travel is allowed and rightly so. My bugbear is not with people like this, but as you say they will end up all vilified.

My bugbear is that many have not travelled to see dying relatives. Some (including people I know) have travelled because they had not seen relatives for a long time and other spurious reasons. For those of us with elderly parents living at the other end of the country, who we cannot see in a day trip or outside, this is very frustrating, especially if the date when we can see them gets pushed back again.

Even then, I am not against travelling abroad (when allowed) as I do really feel for those with relatives in different countries, but I feel strongly that quarantine needs to be taken much more seriously.

A family I know who travelled back from India just before they were put on the red list said that they were not notified on any part of their homeward journey that they needed to quarantine at home, and no one checked this. They did quarantine, but many won’t have. This is my big bugbear. (And also the silly rule that these high risk people were able to quarantine at home while their household still went about their daily lives mixing with loads of people).