Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

@vegas888 but they will have to quarantine in a hotel etc people may still be getting back home or be coming here to work etc

If we’re advocating locking down to avoid mutations, we’ll be doing that for 3-5 years minimum. Takers?

@Lua but there are various reasons why young people ill as well as others have pointed out

@ bizmum1
Either the vaccine works or it doesn't

It is not binary.
For some people, the vaccines completely prevents infection.
For others, they get infected but have no symptoms.
For still others, they get infected and fall ill, but less seriously ill so they won't need hospitalisation and they won't die, and hopefully they also won't get long COVID.
For a small number, maybe the vaccine won't do any good.

At a population level, if 100 vaccinated people are exposed to COVID, fewer of them will be able to pass it on to others, so transmission is slowed down. So every person who can and does get vaccinated is helping to lower the risk to others.

As long as the vaccine has reasonable efficacy it is worth rolling out because it can hopefully slow transmission and reduce hospitalisations enough that we won't need another lockdown.

And if the highest efficacy vaccine (Pfizer) can be rolled out at mass scale in the most-affected communities, there is an even better chance of getting that benefit.

The worst is probably behind us (in the UK). That does not mean we can become completely complacent or stop taking any measures against the virus.

@TheKeatingFive well there will be some on here as they seem to think we can lockdown and it will just go away forever

@Delatron

It would be great to see a source where medics have received two doses of the vaccine and have ended up hospitalised? How many has this happened to?

Not knowing how effective a vaccine is is not the same as ‘it won’t work’. The vaccines have been performing amazingly well. Many people here have immunity as tested by the ONS.

I’m guessing unfortunately vaccine take up may be low in areas where this variant is spreading?

I don’t think they were hospitalised

I was going to ask but reading back pp said not

There are suggestions that the indian variant is infecting vaccinated people and those who have previously had covid. Hence, the concern.

The areas in Bolton with high rates of the indian variant do have low uptake. It’s very deprived, very few with English as a first language, a lot don’t have English as a second language. The council have been having a bit push to get these groups vaccinated with special mobile vaccination clinics in the area at different times, weekends, at the mosques and temples but uptake is still low.

Ah ok. So they weren’t hospitalised. So not seriously ill. The vaccines are shown to work to prevent hospitalisation and death. That is what we need to happen to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

There is no evidence they are not working. ‘Suggestions’ are not good enough.

‘Suggestions’

The fear mongering on here is ridiculous.

If there is actual evidence of vaccinated people getting seriously ill, then let’s see it. This is absolutely a problem.

If not, we’re in boy who cried wolf territory. Be careful.

@SonnetForSpring

There are suggestions that the indian variant is infecting vaccinated people and those who have previously had covid. Hence, the concern.

"Suggestions"? That doesn't sound very scientific.

As I said above, no vaccine offers 100% protection. There will always be people who will still get ill - perhaps seriously ill - despite being vaccinated. We have always accepted this, even with vaccines that provide much less protection than the Covid ones do. Similarly, although it is the exception, there will always be people who get infected more than once.

Do you have any evidence to support these 'suggestions'?

[quote worriedatthemoment]@Thewiseoneincognito people do understand this but also understand that we need an economy and some need to be qble to get back to work and feed their families and that zero covid is not uet in our grasp if ever and its here to stay and we have to learn to live with it, we cannot stay locked down forever[/quote]
I get that I really do.

I also think we need to rethink ‘Economy’ in a Covid reality though and not how things used to be. We’re trying to apply the mathematics of a pre-Covid world to a world that is now a Very different place for the foreseeable future. We can’t bury our heads in the sand and expect to continue life as though the risks aren’t there.

@TheKeatingFive

If we’re advocating locking down to avoid mutations, we’ll be doing that for 3-5 years minimum. Takers?

Something tells me we’ll be doing it with or without advocacy for them, we won’t have a choice.

From a CNN fact checking report:

Of the 1.7 million people fully vaccinated with India's homegrown Covaxin vaccine, 695 have tested positive for Covid, said the government-run Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in April. That equates to 0.04%.

Of the 15 million people who received both doses of Covishield the Indian manufactured AstraZeneca vaccine 5,014 people have tested positive, or 0.03%.

Until last week, India had only rolled out its vaccine to frontline workers and the most vulnerable.

"Those who were tested positive after receiving the doses were mostly frontline workers and healthcare workers. This category was the first to be vaccinated, and they are prone to more occupational exposure," Dr Balram Bhargava, secretary of department of health research and director-general of ICMR, told reporters in April, according to local media reports.

Something tells me we’ll be doing it with or without advocacy for them, we won’t have a choice.

Nope. Compliance is shot already.

Maybe we’ll split into two societies. The lockdowners and the ‘take your chances’. I know where I’ll be.

Also so far the hospitals in India seem to be saying those that have been vaccinated are not serious sick. So that is what we expected and brilliant. Though of course wise many people you will get the odd exception

@vegas888

They’ve known about this variant for some time so why weren’t flights from there stopped immediately. Even today we’ve had flights in from Mumbai landing at Heathrow. I thought travel was only allowed for work purposes so who are all these people on these flights. It’s sickening when many people have been adhering to the rules.🙄

These people will be quarantined for 10 days at a cost of nearly £ 2000 and a bunch of tests. Travel is allowed for essential purposes. They will have gone to bury their dead. Or be with them in their last hours.

I guess we are at maximum capacity for the supply of vaccines and rollout if not then crank it up to warp speed.

Of the 15 million people who received both doses of Covishield the Indian manufactured AstraZeneca vaccine 5,014 people have tested positive, or 0.03%.

This is the only relevant statistic. So a miniscule number of people - many of whmo would have been exposed to high levels of the virus due to their work - contracted Covid after two doses of AZ.

But people are advocating prolonged lockdown for this? Hopefully those who actually make decisions won't have the same extreme risk aversion seen by the armchair experts on MN.

@IcedPurple

Of the 15 million people who received both doses of Covishield the Indian manufactured AstraZeneca vaccine 5,014 people have tested positive, or 0.03%.

This is the only relevant statistic. So a miniscule number of people - many of whmo would have been exposed to high levels of the virus due to their work - contracted Covid after two doses of AZ.

But people are advocating prolonged lockdown for this? Hopefully those who actually make decisions won't have the same extreme risk aversion seen by the armchair experts on MN.

I agree with this.

Hopefully speculation will die down in next few days.

I think the changing of vaccine guidance has slowed things down a little. There has been murmurs about logistics. Hopefully they will have ironed it all out quickly.

I also think we need to rethink ‘Economy’ in a Covid reality though and not how things used to be.

What do you actually mean by this?

Should some people just never work again, at least not in their pre-Covid job?

Should we just give up on huge areas of the economy?

@TheKeatingFive

Something tells me we’ll be doing it with or without advocacy for them, we won’t have a choice.

Nope. Compliance is shot already.

Maybe we’ll split into two societies. The lockdowners and the ‘take your chances’. I know where I’ll be.

😂😂 good luck! Us lockdowners will send you all some lemsip and hand sanitizer 🕊

As of 11 May there are 1,098 people with Covid in U.K. hospitals. The lowest figure since 15 September 2020 and massively down on the high number of 39,249 on 18 January.

The vaccination programme is working wonders and even if cases rise there is nothing to suggest that the NHS will become overwhelmed

Don’t panic!

There’s talk of personal choice from MH so maybe not that far off.

We can split off into lockdown people and people happy to do normal stuff.