Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

Pfizer even!

@x2boys
Grateful if you could share with anyone you know that might benefit

Yes i will do

Surely is not a coincidence that the virus is in creasing in an area with a lower take up on the vaccination. No one wants it to be compulsory but if that can’t be changed then surely restrictions will have to be bought in .
Even if they increase vaccination and testing in Bolton ( which I understand is happening already ) then somehow those that are vaccine resistant have to be persuaded ?

Those that are breaking rules and mixing households have to stop ?

It’s not all the governments fault .

.

@THEDEACON

And yes people are angry and moaning about it apparently.

But I agree Boris is mistaken if he thinks people can be sensible and make their own decisions. Just seeing the posts on mumsnet it’s not going to happen .

If the government backs down and agrees to another lockdown the damage to the vaccine campaign will be massive. People have the vaccine in the hope that it will move us on towards ‘normality’, if we will still have to lockdown over ever new variant people will start to think there is no point to having the vaccine. Myself included!

Whether we like it or not, at some point we have to accept that the ‘cure’ would be worse than the problem. How many people will be forced into poverty if we don’t get hospitality and related industries back up and running!

@MrsWhites

If the government backs down and agrees to another lockdown the damage to the vaccine campaign will be massive. People have the vaccine in the hope that it will move us on towards ‘normality’, if we will still have to lockdown over ever new variant people will start to think there is no point to having the vaccine. Myself included!

Whether we like it or not, at some point we have to accept that the ‘cure’ would be worse than the problem. How many people will be forced into poverty if we don’t get hospitality and related industries back up and running!

The vaccines help most when we reach vaccine-led herd immunity.

But about 46% of the country is completely unvaccinated and only about 29% is fully vaccinated.

You're expecting 100% fully vaccinated level help from 29%.

Letting the virus spread increases the R and pushes herd immunity further away.

SAGE say in the minutes of their Indian variant emergency meeting:

22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

What do we do, then, if there is a significant rump of people who a) refuse the vaccine and b) refuse to moderate their behaviour in the face of the current situation?

After seeing on Sky News about 4000 vaccines needing to be used today, I’ve just seen a couple I know from uni saying on Facebook that they are going on a road trip to Bolton for a vaccine. Surely idiots driving in from elsewhere to an Indian variant hotspot and then back again really isn’t sensible. Why can’t they see this?

Dr Helen Wall, who is leading the vaccination effort in Bolton, said the target for Saturday was to distribute 4,000 jabs.

She said 10,000 people eligible for jabs had yet to be vaccinated in the BL4 and BL5 postcode areas, with issues like not having phone credit to make a booking often cited as a reason for putting off taking the vaccine.

Asked what would happen if a younger person turned up for a jab, Dr Wall said vaccinators were following the guidance but would "look for reasons to vaccinate people, not reasons not to within those criteria of eligibility".

@OwlTwitterings case in point about sensible decisions! I wish there was a vaccine for stupid

@Unsure33

Surely is not a coincidence that the virus is in creasing in an area with a lower take up on the vaccination. No one wants it to be compulsory but if that can’t be changed then surely restrictions will have to be bought in . Even if they increase vaccination and testing in Bolton ( which I understand is happening already ) then somehow those that are vaccine resistant have to be persuaded ?

Those that are breaking rules and mixing households have to stop ?

It’s not all the governments fault .

.

Yes I think there is a lot in this. I was reading something earlier about the spike in Glasgow in the vulnerable unvaccinated over 50s. They should have been vaccinated

I think

The issue is that lots of people over 50 have had only one jab. This is why the government have shortened the distance between them to 8 weeks, reduced from 12 weeks.
There were also lots of issues in many areas with vaccines being mainly through the larger government vaccine centres and few supplies through GPs and smaller centres. For many of the poorest who do not have a car, getting to a larger vaccination centre may have been impossible, which led to a delay for a more local appointment.
I am in an area where the Indian variant now is. I have seen people on MN far younger than me in London saying they got their first jab, while I was still being told they had not got to my age group where I live.
It is easy to blame people when you have zero idea of what is happening.

I am in an area where the Indian variant now is. I have seen people on MN far younger than me in London saying they got their first jab, while I was still being told they had not got to my age group where I live.

London is behind on the rollout. If they were probably clinically vulnerable or health and social care workers.

Wales has gone faster - I know people in their 20s were being done in parts of the country, amd and also some areas in England.

@IrmaFayLear

What do we do, then, if there is a significant rump of people who a) refuse the vaccine and b) refuse to moderate their behaviour in the face of the current situation?

One big question is how to protect the vulnerable in areas of high hesitancy who have had their vaccines. Vaccines might not be as effectively in the vulnerable and to an extent they rely on those around them getting vaccinated.

I also took someone who I know who has mild learning difficulties to get vaccinated. She had received a text to book one but couldn't manage it online and so left it. I helped her book one and took her in the car to the centre. She went in herself and came out nearly in tears because a member of staff was querying how she was eligible, even though she had shown the text saying she was in the shielded group. I had to go in with her and advocate for her.
I am saying this as it is the most vulnerable people who can struggle to navigate the system to get a jab. Those IT literate and with access to transport were able to easily go online, book and if the only appointments were some way away, travel there.
I know housebound people were often waiting a long time for their jabs.
I have been shocked that one-third of people have been fully vaccinated when I know people who should have been in the very early cohorts, who have only just received their second jab a few days ago.
It is easy to blame vaccine refusal, but for many they have really wanted a vaccine but it has taken a while to get it.

@Tealightsandd I ma in the north of England and I am talking about people in their fifties and shielded who have only just received their second vaccine.
It is a postcode lottery.
And yes vaccines do not work well on some people. I know someone who has had a transplant who has been warned the vaccine may not give much protection.

Yes definitely postcode lottery. I know people in parts of the north east of England who had their jabs in March. 30s and healthy.

In parts of London (including where the Indian variant has been found) they were still on over 45s first jabs just a weekend or two ago. Lots of shielded and over 50s only now having their second.

Official data reports that London is behind on the rollout. Other areas across the UK obviously will vary in how fast (or slow) they're going.

Country wise, Wales appears to be going faster than England, whereas Scotland has been slower. From what I've heard but that's based on anedotes so I'm not sure?

And yes vaccines do not work well on some people. I know someone who has had a transplant who has been warned the vaccine may not give much protection.

Do you think shielding should be reintroduced for a period (until the rest of the population, or at least the majority, are vaccinated)?

@Tealightsandd that is interesting, maybe it depends which Borough in London? Because I see friends in London who are young posting about having their vaccine.
Anyway I guess the point I was making is that some people on this thread are posting rates of vaccine uptake in different areas and are assuming that differences are simply down to vaccine uptake. Of course vaccine refusal has an impact, but so does the number of vaccines available in different areas.

@Tealightsandd

And yes vaccines do not work well on some people. I know someone who has had a transplant who has been warned the vaccine may not give much protection.

Do you think shielding should be reintroduced for a period (until the rest of the population, or at least the majority, are vaccinated)?

I think it should be reintroduced for those who were on the shielded list but either can not have a vaccine for medical reasons, or where their medical condition makes the vaccine unlikely to be very effective. I suspect it would be a small percentage of the original shielded list so would not have too much impact on employers, but would help protect those people.

I think so @castemary I guess borough dependent. Central London seems to have gone faster than the rest. Perhaps because some residents in central only live there part time? Like Boris going to Chequers whenever he can, they stay in London for work but have their preferred home in the countryside. So more spare doses.

You make a good point. I agree. It's definitely not just hesitancy/refusal. Actually, that might partly explain the Indian variant spread in Glasgow? If it's true that Scotland has been slower with the rollout?