Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

@LucilleTheVampireBat in an article on Aljazeera. No one was hospitalised, but they were ill.

So is the aim now to stop anyone getting ill, ever?

Nope. As I said UK scientists are looking at whether this leads to increased hospitalisation and deaths.
Because remember most people who are ill with covid are never hospitalised anyway. Getting ill is not the issue. Hospitalisations and deaths are. And the jury is still out on that.
I am really hoping it will be fine. I want to get back to normal. But I also know that just wanting this to happen is not enough.

Here is the thing.
We are all going to get Corona virus, either now, or later or next year or we have had it and will get it again.

That in itself doesn't matter.

Some of us might be quite poorly for a while, in the same way we get outbreaks of flu, norovirus etc.

that also doesn't matter.

The only figures that are relevant is if hospotal admissions and deaths go up.

Vaccines, even if they are slightly less effective against a new variant, will stop the hospital admissions and deaths. That is all we ask them to do and as long as they do that, we can continue with lockdown easing etc.

We do not know yet if the vaccines stop people infected with the Indian variant being hospitalised and dying. No one does. Hopefully it will, but as of now, no one knows.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

So is the aim now to stop anyone getting ill, ever?

No, obviously not.

But I think the idea we can just ignore the risk of rising cases is silly, given the enormous risk to the economy and our health service of a variant that isn't covered by the vaccine.

This is a scientific problem, not an emotional issue.

@Wellbythebloodyhell

*some covid expert, forget which one, said * Was probably a MNetter theres plenty of em

@steppemum

Here is the thing. We are all going to get Corona virus, either now, or later or next year or we have had it and will get it again.

That in itself doesn't matter.

Some of us might be quite poorly for a while, in the same way we get outbreaks of flu, norovirus etc.

that also doesn't matter.

The only figures that are relevant is if hospotal admissions and deaths go up.

Vaccines, even if they are slightly less effective against a new variant, will stop the hospital admissions and deaths. That is all we ask them to do and as long as they do that, we can continue with lockdown easing etc.

Agree, but what concerns me is what happens after you’ve had it for 2,3 or 4 times? What long term impact is there going to be.

So whilst vaccines may keep hospitalisations down and deaths low, are they going to prevent the potential long term damage of having Covid repeatedly? If We have no more lockdowns everyone just keeps getting it until what..? Long covid is a big concern right now and to be fair we have no clue how this could pan out over the coming years. We think long covid is a only a few months of no taste or smell but could it actually be more than that?

So, again, is the idea now that lockdowns are to prevent people from ever experiencing post-viral complications? Does this apply to other viruses or just covid? Is long-flu going to mean another lockdown?

You cannot have it all ways. Lockdown to "save" the NHS. Done.

The goalposts cannot keep changing.

In fact, I don't want to know the answers. I'm out. Happy frothing.

Why are we assuming people won’t develop some immunity and t-cells to stop getting it over and over again? T-cell immunity from SARS has been shown to last at least 17 years. (Plus you know the vaccines).

Everyone gets other coronavirus infections multiple times. It will eventually just be an enemic virus.

Dr John comments today.

UK, 45 days first discovered

Cases, = 727

About 3 times quicker than SA variant

Bolton, epicentre, cases doubled in past week

Blackburn, Bedford, South Northamptonshire, Sefton, Tynemouth, Glasgow

MP for Bolton, Yasmin Quareshi

Residents had been slow to get vaccinated

React study, Imperial College London

Infections are spreading more rapidly amongst the Asian community, and in some of the other groups in the population

Andy Burnham

Requested Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, all over-16s in Bolton, and Greater Manchestee

to mitigate the risks of spread in those communities where we are seeing more transmission

Cases inked to international travel

Prof James Naismith, Rosalind Franklin Institute

We should view it as a country-wide problem

Localised restrictions unlikely to work

@Delatron

Why are we assuming people won’t develop some immunity and t-cells to stop getting it over and over again? T-cell immunity from SARS has been shown to last at least 17 years. (Plus you know the vaccines).

We are not assuming anything. I am just repeating what various scientists have been saying i.e. we do not know yet how much the current vaccines protect or do not protect against the Indian variant. There is concern because Indian medics who have been vaccinated have been ill with it. What I think is there are constant assumptions the other way that of course the vaccines will work, no issue. When the jury is still out.

@LucilleTheVampireBat

So, again, is the idea now that lockdowns are to prevent people from ever experiencing post-viral complications? Does this apply to other viruses or just covid? Is long-flu going to mean another lockdown?

You cannot have it all ways. Lockdown to "save" the NHS. Done.

The goalposts cannot keep changing.

In fact, I don't want to know the answers. I'm out. Happy frothing.

I think the goalposts have to be adapted just like how the virus adapts. In my view it’s naive and frankly irresponsible to assume we can just ignore the potential implications in the hopes that it’ll go away because we’ve had enough and it doesn’t fit in with original goalposts we set out in the first wave.

In India, medics who have received two doses of a vaccine have caught this variant and been ill.

Have you got a source for this? How many 'medics'?

The latest research sugggests that the vaccines do provide protection against all vaccines. However, no vaccine is 100% and there will always be cases of people getting ill despite being vaccinated.

The only justification for the extraordinary measure that is lockdown is to avoid the collapse of the health service. And some (in increasing numbers) would contest that, or at least point out that more could have been done to bolster it.

Compliance is already very greatly eroded compared to the initial lockdown. People are not programmed to live like this and simply won't any further, unless there is very significant reason to fear for their own safety. The idea of locking down to prevent post viral complications or as a preventative measure against new variants that have yet to emerge, is utterly unrealistic.

It would be great to see a source where medics have received two doses of the vaccine and have ended up hospitalised? How many has this happened to?

Not knowing how effective a vaccine is is not the same as ‘it won’t work’. The vaccines have been performing amazingly well. Many people here have immunity as tested by the ONS.

I’m guessing unfortunately vaccine take up may be low in areas where this variant is spreading?

great. I still cannot smell and taste properly from my 1st bout with the fucker. now have to live in fear of what will happen next time and the next and the next.......

Don't we need to keep case numbers low to prevent further mutations? I understood that the higher the cases the likelihood that more mutations and variants will appear, with the potential that these could be worse or evade vaccines being the main concern. It's not just about hospital numbers and deaths.

Either the vaccine works or it doesn't

@steppemum

I am sorry, but I disagree.

The main danger at the moment is to let things get out of control because that is how mutations pop up.

There will obviously be selection in the virus population to overcome the protection vaccines provide. Mutations are random, so as long as virus population remains low, chance of a mutation that make it more virulent or can break vaccine protection is low. You let the virus population increase, and the number of new mutations also increase, providing a better chance for worst virus to show up.

This is why framing the discussion in terms of susceptible ones is silly. In India and brasil, where populations are large and control were lax, mutant are changing the virus behavious, with an increased representation of young people in ICUs.

@TedsWeeDonkey

Don't we need to keep case numbers low to prevent further mutations? I understood that the higher the cases the likelihood that more mutations and variants will appear, with the potential that these could be worse or evade vaccines being the main concern. It's not just about hospital numbers and deaths.

Yes. And yet Boris wants to get rid of masks in classrooms long before everyone is vaccinated and to send people back to offices who were working perfectly well at home.

@TedsWeeDonkey

Don't we need to keep case numbers low to prevent further mutations? I understood that the higher the cases the likelihood that more mutations and variants will appear, with the potential that these could be worse or evade vaccines being the main concern. It's not just about hospital numbers and deaths.

Yes but try telling that to some people 😔

They’ve known about this variant for some time so why weren’t flights from there stopped immediately. Even today we’ve had flights in from Mumbai landing at Heathrow. I thought travel was only allowed for work purposes so who are all these people on these flights. It’s sickening when many people have been adhering to the rules.🙄

@Thewiseoneincognito people do understand this but also understand that we need an economy and some need to be qble to get back to work and feed their families and that zero covid is not uet in our grasp if ever and its here to stay and we have to learn to live with it, we cannot stay locked down forever