Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

Some Covid expert, forget which one,, said that people should still be very cautious about what they do,as there are about 5000 cases of the Indian variant up in the North of the UK now.

*some covid expert, forget which one, said
*
Was probably a MNetter theres plenty of em

@SophieGiroux

If it's the younger ones getting it then the number of hospitalisations are unlikely to change a lot as younger ones get it milder. I don't think there's any need to worry too much when older vulnerable people have been vaccinated as they are the ones who were likely to be hospitalised.

This is unfortunately incorrect.

If there are a lot of cases, then we will have problems, because the vaccine doesn't work for everyone.

It is a matter of maths. Cases amongst people 70+ were very low in e.g. January2021 because they were not mixing. You can't compare simply between then and now because 'lockdown' and 'vaccination' affect transmission and illness numbers in different ways.

Sorry, that should read new cases amongst people 70+, if you stay at home, you don't catch covid is what I mean.

Obviously those in hospital were older.

@1forAll74

Some Covid expert, forget which one,, said that people should still be very cautious about what they do,as there are about 5000 cases of the Indian variant up in the North of the UK now.

Is it a different variant to the Indian one spreading fast in London? I assumed that too was a concern.

If anyone has Twitter, follow @sailorrooscout AKA Mac n Chise, she is a molecular biologist and has been a huge source of reassurance to me over the vaccines.

Thank you for the recommendation. I don't use Twitter but assume her tweets are publicly available to view?

[quote Flev]@GeorgeandHarold66 I live in that area, it's a massive outbreak at a secondary school and so far almost all cases are linked to that. The next couple of weeks will show if the measures put in place have stopped it spreading into the wider community.[/quote]
Which is why face masks should be kept in schools until we know what the Indian variant ‘does’ and why school staff should have been vaccinated at the same time as health care professionals and care home workers. Schools were, and remain, a place where Covid spreads like wildfire. Children spread Covid. Let’s hope this variant doesn’t affect children (and young teachers) to a greater degree and that they escape post viral illness.

The new modelling from Warwick has a chart for that.

Who are the people in hospital in this chart?

Ie age and how many doses

@Tealightsandd

Thank you for the recommendation. I don't use Twitter but assume her tweets are publicly available to view?

They are, but a named reputable scientist in the U.K. might be more useful than an anonymous account.

Last I looked that account was still saying that there was no evidence that B1617.2 could evade immunity - when there is.

(Serum studies from Cambridge University, anecdata from India, and a similar mutation to P1)

@Frazzled2207 re Erewash they closed the whole school for a week, not just individual bubbles, set up PCR testing in the school grounds and asked all pupils and staff plus their households and any other people part of their bubbles to attend for a PCR. Other local schools asked for any siblings to be kept off until this was complete. Lots of local kids clubs and service providers have asked people linked to the school not to attend/use services until they had a negative test.

Of course people could ignore the requests - but there does seem to have been a decent attempt to stop this spreading further. But now we wait - probably for a fortnight or so - to see how successful it had been. The immediate school test numbers are what has sent our rates rocketing, and I'm expecting to see that dropping off over the next couple of days, but will it then pick up again due to further transmission in the community.

By the way, there's no suggestion so far that it's the Indian variant down here, but who knows?

@Flev

Ah ok that’s great- fingers crossed it’s enough

Thanks @PrincessNutNuts
Yes that's a good point. I prefer named accounts when it's someone posting as an expert. I'll still check it out - but I never rely on one source only for any news, studies, or reports.

@Tealightsandd

Thanks *@PrincessNutNuts* Yes that's a good point. I prefer named accounts when it's someone posting as an expert. I'll still check it out - but I never rely on one source only for any news, studies, or reports.

Good. Me either.

Clinging to the comfort of the source saying what I want to hear would make no sense to me.

I live in Bolton,quite frankly,I'm not surprised we are where we are again,to many covid deniers,and ignorance, I'm fully vaccinated as is my DH,I can see us having local restrictions again🙄

Of course the Indian variant is a concern here in the UK, and the public health situation in India is an even bigger tragedy, but in sorting out how worried to be about the situation in UK over next few months, people looking at India as a possible precedent should keep in mind the following:

-Hospital beds per 1,000 population are 5 x higher in UK compared to India

-Doctors per 1,000 population are 4x higher in UK compared to India

-GDP per capita is 20x higher in UK compared to India.

-70% of adults in UK have had at least one vaccine dose, and that is still increasing. People under 18 can of course catch COVID and pass it on, but only a very tiny fraction of them will end up in hospital, hopefully there will now be enough resources to care for them properly so that most of those can recover fully. Also only a much smaller fraction of those to whom they could pass it on will be vulnerable to serious illness. This is very far from perfect, but there are still very good reasons to hope it's "good enough."

If there are lots of young COVID patients who are seriously ill or dying in Indian hospitals, it's also because there is a large population, and some low percentage of young people with COVID will end up needing hospital care … and a low percentage times a huge population is still a big absolute number, especially with so few hospital beds and doctors. Also with India being a poorer country, more young people there will suffer from ill health due to poor nutrition, environmental pollution, etc.

Here in UK, I think we probably will still get a meaningful third wave of infections, sadly with some increase in the death rate, but I also think we will probably see many fewer hospitalisations and deaths than in the second wave. Perhaps I am also guilty of choosing the source that agrees with me, but here is an article to that effect from Imperial College.
www.imperial.ac.uk/news/219013/covid-19-roadmap-reopening-could-lead-third/
This does also seem to fall somewhere in-between the doom mongers and those who say that everything is perfect.

If we in UK can all try to accept what restrictions continue to imposed with as much patience and grace as we can bear, including following the rules in force now and then accepting that there probably will need to be some continuing restrictions after June 21st even if we may be freer than now, and if we can take especially seriously our responsibility to one another by self-isolating and getting tested ASAP in the event of having any symptoms, then I believe we can all help to put the worst behind us, in the UK.

Any of us with resources to spare could also identify and do whatever actions we can do in order to alleviate suffering in UK, but also in India and other countries that are much less well-resourced in dealing with this pandemic. Political support for public funding of vaccine production and delivery needs to continue until there are enough vaccines for everyone globally. Since higher infection rates anywhere in the world also lead to new variants, that is not only considerate and charitable - it's also very consistent with self-interest.

I'm not sure that they'll stall the road maps to normality at the moment
I live in one of the areas of concern, but hospitalizations and deaths haven't spiked up

@PrincessNutNuts I know we also count on that to reach herd immunity hence why the figures you posted are not entirely accurate as to how many people may have some immunity .
Too much doom and gloom on here , yes its right to be cautious but some on here want to be locked in at home for many more months , thinking that covid is the only risk
I don't think june 22nd will be back to total normal but I also think it will be slightly more open than now

@x2boys

I live in Bolton,quite frankly,I'm not surprised we are where we are again,to many covid deniers,and ignorance, I'm fully vaccinated as is my DH,I can see us having local restrictions again🙄

It’ll be a no from me if they try.

@Appyalpaca

Don’t be daft.you only have to look at the hospital admissions no death rates to see they are making a huge difference, 😂

This is exactly what people said around December.

Hopefully this will be ok and hospitalisations and deaths won’t follow but if they do it takes several weeks after infection for it to show. As in all the other waves.

Fingers crossed the vaccines hold up snd the under 40s aren’t hit hard by this variant as in India

Didn't vaccines start in January?

Consider the timing
‘Indian varian a huge concern’ splashed all over the news a few days before another lifting of restrictions? It’s happened nearly every other time as well...
It’s more control by fear.

Are people really happy for ongoing lockdowns? Three weeks to protect the NHS is far from where we are now.

@Wherediditgo

Consider the timing ‘Indian varian a huge concern’ splashed all over the news a few days before another lifting of restrictions? It’s happened nearly every other time as well... It’s more control by fear.

What's in it for them?

I think they should do a very careful watch and wait.
Any sign of things going bad again they should pump the brakes, IMO.
Fingers crossed the vaccinations are enough to make a difference this time.

They’ve basically said they won’t delay Monday. I hate to think what the case figures will be like in a few weeks.

I wonder how long the vaccine is effective for. I really hope we don’t end up at square one. I’m pregnant now and really hoped this year was going to be better because of the vaccines.