Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

@RedcurrantPuff

I’m just amazed anyone is following any of this tripe any more. We’re meant to be grateful the gov are allowing hugs meantime they are the ones who have allowed the variants to take hold.

I think the time has come to stop focusing on “cases” and look at hospitalisation and deaths.

The hospitalisations and deaths will come unfortunately, of that you can be certain.

@HesterShaw1

In that case, just get bloody Bolton jabbed. Divert them from places where cases are fuck all to non existent and just get these places done!

Everyone knows the kind of towns where this is still a problem. Just get it done!

They are! They've currently got big vans parked up in Bolton and are allowing anyone who queues up, to get a vaccine without an invite or appointment

Maybe these headlines are designed to try to get people to follow the restrictions that are still in place, and to go and get their vaccines when invited, so that we can have a better chance to avoid delay to the roadmap for removing all, or at least most, of the restrictions. Large indoor gatherings will probably still require some preventive measures after June 21st.

If some of these variants cause a lot of "breakthrough" cases or if there is a lot of spread in communities where vaccination rates are still lower, then restrictions might have to get tightened. But for the UK, overall vaccination rates at national level are pretty high, and that's probably a worst case scenario.

I continue to feel optimistic when I read the UK data on numbers of confirmed cases. I believe things are getting better, and will probably continue to get better. There will continue to be some COVID deaths, but many fewer than before.

I also believe that the painful measures that were taken probably did save at least a few hundred thousand lives in the UK, and that the more people can continue to stick to such rules as are in force for a few months longer (including requirements to quarantine when returning from foreign holidays), the better our chances to be able to continue to move in the direction of opening up.

On the Indian variants specifically, I have yet to see any well-documented article or study suggesting that they are much more effective than other variants at evading the vaccines. I'd be very interesting to read any such article or study if it exists. My current assumption is, the vaccines probably work about as well against Indian variants as they do against other prevalent variants such as the so-called "Kent" strain, at least in preventing hospitalisation or death.

Opening up a bit more when 46% of the population are entirely unvaccinated and only 27.6% have had both jabs might be ok if we had a good test trace and isolate system in place, and our border quarantine system worked.

I think Monday will go ahead because our government doesn't really "do" the precautionary principle.

If the percentage of the sequenced tests that are the Indian variant continues to grow over the next five or six weeks we'll find out if we've learned anything from the last 16 months or if we'll make the same mistakes we made last year all over again.

Don’t be daft.you only have to look at the hospital admissions no death rates to see they are making a huge difference, 😂

This is exactly what people said around December.

Hopefully this will be ok and hospitalisations and deaths won’t follow but if they do it takes several weeks after infection for it to show. As in all the other waves.

Fingers crossed the vaccines hold up snd the under 40s aren’t hit hard by this variant as in India

That first paragraph should be a quote. Sorry

Interesting posts.
I wonder why the situation is so bad in India - I understand the healthcare system while not great to begin with has pretty much collapsed but it does seem like a lot of younger people are needing oxygen ...
Surely if it wasn’t more virulent that wouldn’t be the case? The deaths are coming because they can’t get the oxygen and healthcare they need but the fact they need the oxygen to begin with is concerning to me as the age groups it seems to be affecting are the ones that aren’t vaccinated here yet

Can’t wait to get my vaccine, hoping they reach 36 year olds in my area soon!

I do agree that the government has been woeful at managing the new variants each time. They never seem to learn unless there’s something I’m missing

but it does seem like a lot of younger people are needing oxygen

Is this actually the case though? Is there data to show that?

Or is the media focusing on young people who are struggling to get oxygen as the hospital system struggles?

@MintyMabel

What is the fucking point of vaccines?

The point is they only work for society as a whole when herd immunity is reached by having a certain percentage fully vaccinated. We aren’t anywhere near that so it’s foolish to think they would make a big difference at this stage.

But they are working. These outbreaks are confined to areas where take up is low. The vaccine is also suppressing hospitalisations and deaths.

Eid tomorrow

It’s like banging your head against a brick wall. The numbers will never be low enough for certain people. Meanwhile, the immense cost of lockdowns mount and mount and mount.

@PrincessNutNuts where are you getting those percentages as under 16's not getting vaccines and most 16-17 not wither so percentages are higher when you consider it for age groups given last I looked we had given 35 million vaccines not sure what adult population of the uk is
We have to open up , some areas have low cases what should people continue to loose jibs and business, covid is here to stay we will have to learn to live alongside it

@TheKeatingFive yes you recognise same names and many if them in nice secure home working jobs

[quote worriedatthemoment]@PrincessNutNuts where are you getting those percentages as under 16's not getting vaccines and most 16-17 not wither so percentages are higher when you consider it for age groups given last I looked we had given 35 million vaccines not sure what adult population of the uk is
We have to open up , some areas have low cases what should people continue to loose jibs and business, covid is here to stay we will have to learn to live alongside it [/quote]
Herd immunity is calculated as a percentage of the whole population.

So that's the number that counts.

At the moment 53.5% of the U.K. population has had a first dose, and 27.6% have had the second.

If all the adults in the U.K. were fully vaccinated both those numbers would be 79%.

In that case, just get bloody Bolton jabbed. Divert them from places where cases are fuck all to non existent and just get these places done!

They are! They've currently got big vans parked up in Bolton and are allowing anyone who queues up, to get a vaccine without an invite or appointment

That is shocking. London has very high rates of the Indian strain. Last weekend some boroughs were still on over 45s. Why isn't more supply being sent to London, as it appears to have been in Bolton?

I think May 17th will happen. But June 21st who knows

I live in one of the top 10 areas where cases are rising dramatically. Indian variant, kids between 11 and 22 in the main, so not vaccinated Hardly surprising seeing how lots of school kids round here are not SD, or wearing masks ( well actually they do, round their neck like a necklace)

It would make sense to ramp up vaccinations in hot-spot areas for the Indian variant.

If they know it us running through particular secondary schools then vaccinate all over 16s in that area.

The affected London postcodes too. Stop it spreading.

@PrincessNutNuts and some will have natural immunity as well

@WaverleyPirate

It would make sense to ramp up vaccinations in hot-spot areas for the Indian variant.

If they know it us running through particular secondary schools then vaccinate all over 16s in that area.

Yes London definitely needs vaccine ramping up. And of course, people are far more likely to travel to and from London than Bolton - so it's in the interests of the whole country.

If the Indian variant is 60% more transmissible than the U.K. variant then wouldn't it fail the 4th of the 4 tests?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14928946/covid-cases-rise-fear-indian-variant-spreads-faster-kent/amp/?utmsource=twitter&utmmmedium=social&utmcampaign=sharebarweb&twitterrimpression=true

@DdraigGoch
But they are working. These outbreaks are confined to areas where take up is low. The vaccine is also suppressing hospitalisations and deaths

My area is in the top 10 for increases. Take up of the vaccination is very high, but it’s the younger adult and kids getting in, they are no where near vaccination

[quote worriedatthemoment]@PrincessNutNuts and some will have natural immunity as well [/quote]
We count on that to reach herd immunity.

If it's the younger ones getting it then the number of hospitalisations are unlikely to change a lot as younger ones get it milder. I don't think there's any need to worry too much when older vulnerable people have been vaccinated as they are the ones who were likely to be hospitalised.

@SophieGiroux

If it's the younger ones getting it then the number of hospitalisations are unlikely to change a lot as younger ones get it milder. I don't think there's any need to worry too much when older vulnerable people have been vaccinated as they are the ones who were likely to be hospitalised.

The new modelling from Warwick has a chart for that.

It assumes the vaccines offer complete protection.

The different size peaks depend on potential increases in transmissibility of a new variant.

We don't know for sure about B16172's transmissibility yet - but it has been estimated to be up to 60% more transmissible than B117 which was able to cause so much trouble last autumn/winter because it was more transmissible than OG covid. We are still in the second B117 lockdown.