Indian variant - will the roadmap be delayed?

[nonono1]

I was feeling very hopeful about the future until reading that the Indian variant is now spreading fast in some communities.

In light of this, do you think we will stick to the roadmap as planned, or will restrictions be kept in place for longer? It seems like we're still going ahead with the big opening up on Monday.

Also, what about weddings? My SIL is getting married in August and we're really hoping it will still go ahead!

I am curious as to why it is acceptable to call a variant of Covid 19 the "Indian variant" because it was first detected in India but not acceptable to describe Covid 19 virus the Chinese Virus or Wuhan Virus despite being first detected there. Or was it simply because Donald Trump said it so therefore it must be unacceptable?

What about Kent variant, South African variant? YABU

I think he was deliberately ‘Levelling’ with us again.

In the hope people will take measures, follow rules.

Those not following rules will never follow them. The unvaccinated won’t be deterred.

We can’t keep paying for them forever.

@Malteser71

I think he was deliberately ‘Levelling’ with us again.

In the hope people will take measures, follow rules.

Those not following rules will never follow them. The unvaccinated won’t be deterred.

We can’t keep paying for them forever.

If I detected any note it was that we will move away from having to

@1dayatatime

I am curious as to why it is acceptable to call a variant of Covid 19 the "Indian variant" because it was first detected in India but not acceptable to describe Covid 19 virus the Chinese Virus or Wuhan Virus despite being first detected there. Or was it simply because Donald Trump said it so therefore it must be unacceptable?

There is the Wuhan variant as well as the Kent variant, California variant etc. Nobody ever calls it’s the Indian virus so why should it be the Chinese virus? It’s a global virus with many variants identified (but not necessarily originating) in many parts of the world.

@Delatron

Yes such deja vu. We are in exactly the same situation as Jan 🙄. Did you actually listen the press conference?

Do you actually think the vaccines don’t work? Based on what?

Now I wish we’d been stricter with arrivals from India but we are in a very different situation to Jan.

I think you might be assuming that things are different (better) because we have vaccines now, and not considering how a new even more transmissible variant can make things different (worse).

You might also be conferring the benefits that would accrue from a vaccination programme that had fully vaccinated 100% of the population onto one that has only fully vaccinated 28.9% (and so far left about 46% completely unvaccinated.)

And you might have absorbed the assumption that vaccines work 100% effectively in 100% of people - which leads to the belief that vaccinated people are safe now - which leads to bafflement at the possibility that large numbers of people could still be admitted to hospital and/or die.

You may be operating under the assumption that 52% of the population is not in danger from covid because 48% were in the JCVI 9 priority groups which leads to confusion over the possibility that large numbers of people not in the JCVI 9 could still be admitted to hospital and/or die.

Binary thinking might be in play here. You may think it's a case of vaccines work or they don't work, when in fact many variants have some degree of vaccine escape.

@Malteser71

I think he was deliberately ‘Levelling’ with us again.

In the hope people will take measures, follow rules.

Those not following rules will never follow them. The unvaccinated won’t be deterred.

We can’t keep paying for them forever.

What does 'we can't keep paying for them forever' mean?

South Northamptonshire is one of the worst hit from the Indian variant, where I am, and that's showing an increase in cases by 72%. Which sounds shocking and scary, but it's actually only 5 cases.
DH is pissing me off sending me loads of doom mongering screenshots from SAGE about the new variant and I've just snapped at him for it. He is WFH Full time, I work front line emergency services (Police) and haven't had even my first vaccine, he's having his next week because he's 38
Just feel like I've been thrown to the wolves and I'm sick of it.

@OwlTwitterings

So just to clarify then it is acceptable to describe variants of Covid 19 by the countries or places where they were first detected for example Kent, Brazilian, South African etc. But the original virus itself (or first variant) either originated or was first detected "globally" and definitely not in Wuhan, China because it has now spread globally.

Taking this a step further should we consider renaming the West Nile virus to the West Nile variant because although it was first detected in Uganda it has now spread globally to the US, Australia etc.

All jolly confusing

Anyone feel like reading something really depressing?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk

"Assuming the vaccines hold up, more people could be hospitalised than in the first wave – putting the NHS at risk – if the variant is much more than 30% more transmissible, University of Warwick models show. At 40% more transmissible, hospitalisations could reach 6,000 per day, far above the peak of the second wave, and 10,000 per day if the variant is 50% more transmissible."

@vera99

Anyone feel like reading something really depressing?

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/14/india-covid-variant-could-lead-to-third-wave-uk

"Assuming the vaccines hold up, more people could be hospitalised than in the first wave – putting the NHS at risk – if the variant is much more than 30% more transmissible, University of Warwick models show. At 40% more transmissible, hospitalisations could reach 6,000 per day, far above the peak of the second wave, and 10,000 per day if the variant is 50% more transmissible."

No, because pretty much all of the modelling we’ve seen has been utterly useless.

Models are based on assumptions and IF statements, they have their place but we’ve seen some totally obscene modelling over the past year. Absolutely terrible.

A bunch of scientists does not equal science. A model or an opinion does not equal science.

We can only know what we know now and science is only ever hypothetical.

So you have to take articles like that, models like that with a ten ton bag of salt

It's never ending.
Poland has had a steady flow of deaths 400/500 for a few weeks.
I was surprised to hear their vaccination program is flying ahead with the number of deaths.

It shit isn't it beyond shit I was very hopeful at the beginning of the week but tonight's press conference, their demeanor, and the initial fast readout of the 'Indian variant' makes for depressing news.

The summary minutes of yesterday's meeting are already available!

And they include this:

It is therefore highly likely that this variant is more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (high confidence), and it is a realistic possibility that it is as much as 50% more transmissible. There are also plausible biological reasons as to why some of the mutations present could make this variant more transmissible.
If this variant were to have a 40-50% transmission advantage nationally compared to B.1.1.7, sensitivity analyses in the modelling of the roadmap in England (SAGE 88) indicate that it is likely that progressing with step 3 alone (with no other local, regional, or national changes to measures) would lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks). Progressing with both steps 3 and 4 at the earliest dates could lead to a much larger peak. Smaller transmission advantage would lead to smaller peaks.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/986564/S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE_meeting.pdf

[quote 1dayatatime]@OwlTwitterings

So just to clarify then it is acceptable to describe variants of Covid 19 by the countries or places where they were first detected for example Kent, Brazilian, South African etc. But the original virus itself (or first variant) either originated or was first detected "globally" and definitely not in Wuhan, China because it has now spread globally.

Taking this a step further should we consider renaming the West Nile virus to the West Nile variant because although it was first detected in Uganda it has now spread globally to the US, Australia etc.

All jolly confusing

[/quote]
Only jolly confusing to you or someone being goady...

19:22MarshaBradyo

Malteser71

I think he was deliberately ‘Levelling’ with us again.

In the hope people will take measures, follow rules.

Those not following rules will never follow them. The unvaccinated won’t be deterred.

We can’t keep paying for them forever.

If I detected any note it was that we will move away from having to

You're detectors are badly off. I'd get them checked.

Your even

@SonnetForSpring

19:22MarshaBradyo

Malteser71

I think he was deliberately ‘Levelling’ with us again.

In the hope people will take measures, follow rules.

Those not following rules will never follow them. The unvaccinated won’t be deterred.

We can’t keep paying for them forever.

If I detected any note it was that we will move away from having to

You're detectors are badly off. I'd get them checked.

Oh you.

Still looking for my posts. Joy

You didn’t hear him talk about personal responsibility in first part?

Are your ears blocked as well as typing fixated

He said that because he wants people to take responsibility rather than be told what to do. He also said think very carefully about what you are doing. Watch it again. You will see it.

@SonnetForSpring

He said that because he wants people to take responsibility rather than be told what to do. He also said think very carefully about what you are doing. Watch it again. You will see it.

Exactly what I’m saying

As I said earlier today personal responsibility

The words that set you off for ages

He was not saying take risks, it's your choice. He was saying I'm not going to tell you not to do things, but please be cautious and try not to do them. We really need a new PM if his message has not been taken in the way he meant it. That is worrying.

@SonnetForSpring

He was not saying take risks, it's your choice. He was saying I'm not going to tell you not to do things, but please be cautious and try not to do them. We really need a new PM if his message has not been taken in the way he meant it. That is worrying.

It’s the same thing

As I said we know the risks and facts so decide

What is so hard to get

No you were taking about personal choice. Not personal responsibility. They are quite different.

Honestly you’re being a bit slow on this

Personal responsibility doesn’t mean no risk it means we decide, he won’t tell us what to do

It is not the same thing at all. One encourages people to take advantage of the relaxed rules if they themselves are happy to. The other is imploring them not to take advantage of the relaxed rules if they can help it. Two very different things.