Indian Variant of Concern

[MakkaPakkasSpongyThing]

Would like to ask those who have more knowledge than me!

1. there is no evidence - as yet, that it could evade the vaccine?
2. is it too early to tell (lag effect)?
3. could it become more problematic come winter time, if so why?
4. is it a variant of concern to all countries worldwide, or just some?
5. with a potential 3rd jab on its way to protect against variants, how is it possible to protect against a variant when it’s potential impact is not yet know? Surely it takes more time?

I realise there is controversy surrounding Vitamin D, but could this be a factor?

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01274-7

summarises what is known and the unknowns about the india variant.

Personally I think it would be wise to be a little precautionary about this, but it seems, sadly, that's not going to happen.

A previous poster linked to the cnn summary of data. In general I'm all for data but I really don't think we can rely on Indian data unfortunately. It seems the number of bodies at cremation grounds are hugely more than they're reporting. It's likely they're underreporting massively so I don't think you can really say anything at all from their data - lots and lots of people aren't even making it into hospital or getting a covid test. And dying.

www.nytimes.com/2021/04/24/world/asia/india-coronavirus-deaths.html

"Bhramar Mukherjee, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan who has been following India closely. “From all the modeling we’ve done, we believe the true number of deaths is two to five times what is being reported.”

Their frontline doctors are saying that they're seeing more younger people but this might be because the older people are just not admitted to hospital and dying at home. Without the data, who knows.

India is the new Brazil. Brazil....Doesn't even get a mention now....why? Because it's dropped out of the news, because it's old news, no-one interested in old news. The same will happen with the India situation.

India is the new Brazil. Brazil....Doesn't even get a mention now....why? Because it's dropped out of the news, because it's old news, no-one interested in old news.

Very true

Eid household mixing over the coming days is not going to help the situation, particularly in areas around Bolton. Bury, Rochdale, Oldham they all have large Asian communities who will be socialising and could theoretically cause a spike in numbers if the transmissibility is as high as reports seem to suggest. I just hope anyone celebrating over the coming days takes sensible precautions just in case.

@MakkaPakkasSpongyThing

Think someone mentioned upthread about seasonal dependency of the Indian variant, and the likelihood of this variant not being seasonally dependent. However, surely that’s also unknown. If it’s only just becoming prevalent here - we won’t know how our seasonal climate effects it’s potency.

So far there has been no sign of any variant of covid being seasonal.

Covid so far has been driven more by the rise and fall of restrictions and the development of new variants than anything else - it may eventually become seasonal..... but which season(s)?

Influenza is largely a winter disease but colds are a largely spring/autumn disease.

@CottageGardener

People are failing to see reason here. First there was panic over the SA variant, then Brazil (Doom mongers were having a field day *@PrincessNutNuts*), now we have moved on to the Indian variant. There will always be variants.

So what if cases go up, we locked down to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed. Vaccines cut hospitalizations and deaths by up to 90%. The Pfizer vaccine is affect against variants, as are the other vaccines I expect. The number of cases is NOT THE ISSUE.

And yet some Mumsnetters think we should have a rolling lockdown from now until 2050. Fucking ridiculous.....

Sorry this is rubbish.

We are STILL highly concerned over the Brazilian and SA variants - the difference between these and the Indian variant is that we have largely managed to keep them OUT of the UK because they were declared as variants of concern BEFORE they entered the country!

The Pfizer vaccine is affect against variants

I presume you mean "effective", effective doesn't mean same effectiveness. It will have SOME benefit, but we still don't know how much, and early data from India suggests that the number of serious cases are rapidly growing among the vaccinated group.
Even IF it does manage to confer similar protection levels (unlikely), 10% of a large number (UK population) is a LOT of serious cases!

and early data from India suggests that the number of serious cases are rapidly growing among the vaccinated group

Source?

GIven that India hasnt had the pfizer or moderna vaccine and 2.8% of its population fully vaccinated it would be hard to get comparable data to where we are here

@bookworm1632 - thank you. When I say seasonal, I mean perhaps more - affected by vitamin D levels, and a tendency towards more outside social interaction in the UK summertime. Our seasonal socialisation and climate would be unique to our country and difficult to compare with others? My ‘instinct’ is that there could be a seasonal influence on Covid already - and this will keep cases down over the summer, but will rise again come October.

[quote MakkaPakkasSpongyThing]@PrincessNutNuts - when I Google I try to look at a range of sources, and not necessarily be led by preconceived ideas about various newspapers. You’ve given some great info - thank you. And I wouldn’t dismiss when you say The Sun gives good Covid explanations.[/quote]
Thank you.

A variety of information sources is a good idea. It's what I do, too.

yet some Mumsnetters think we should have a rolling lockdown from now until 2050

Literally no one thinks that.

@MakkaPakkasSpongyThing

Think someone mentioned upthread about seasonal dependency of the Indian variant, and the likelihood of this variant not being seasonally dependent. However, surely that’s also unknown. If it’s only just becoming prevalent here - we won’t know how our seasonal climate effects it’s potency.

We were in restrictions all summer until August 1st last year - and numbers started gently ticking up within weeks of reopening. Even with social distancing etc.

About 7 weeks later Whitty and Vallance were on tv with their so called "Graph of Doom" calling for a circuit breaker lockdown.

Then we had the tiers until the November Lockdown, then more tiers until the January Lockdown - which we're still in. ,

So I think the virus spread as soon as the restrictions were inadequate to contain it.

The season only helped because we are indoors less, lots of people take time off work in summer, and the schools were closed.