Indian Variant of Concern

[MakkaPakkasSpongyThing]

Would like to ask those who have more knowledge than me!

1. there is no evidence - as yet, that it could evade the vaccine?
2. is it too early to tell (lag effect)?
3. could it become more problematic come winter time, if so why?
4. is it a variant of concern to all countries worldwide, or just some?
5. with a potential 3rd jab on its way to protect against variants, how is it possible to protect against a variant when it’s potential impact is not yet know? Surely it takes more time?

We according to the data this article the data doesn't back that up. I have not looked into it myself but can't imagine that would be to far out. Even if we were to allow for massive numbers of unreported deaths. Is it possible they are going on anecdotal evidence like we did with hospitals before Christmas?

@MakkaPakkasSpongyThing

Would like to ask those who have more knowledge than me! 1) there is no evidence - as yet, that it could evade the vaccine? 2) is it too early to tell (lag effect)? 3) could it become more problematic come winter time, if so why? 4) is it a variant of concern to all countries worldwide, or just some? 5) with a potential 3rd jab on its way to protect against variants, how is it possible to protect against a variant when it’s potential impact is not yet know? Surely it takes more time?

1) What do you mean by "evade"?? People seem to confuse vaccine evasion with a complete failure. It doesn't work like that!! Yes - it is HIGHLY likely to render the vaccines LESS effective - to what extent for each KPI (symptomatic infection/serious illness/death/onward transmission) we do not yet know. The chances are the impact on serious illness/death will be slight, but it may not take much for it to have a BIG impact on onward transmission.

2. Yes - we don't yet have enough data on the Indian variant. It would have been smart to keep it out until we knew more, but the UK seems to enjoy dealing with everything a month too late.

3. Yes - because at the moment, the UK is/was on course to zero covid. The vaccines have proven FAR more effective at stopping onward transmission than anyone expected and cases continue to fall. The Indian variant has the potential to turn all that on its head, and spread through the vaccinated population - by Aug/Sep we could be well and truly into a big third wave - even with vaccinations, this will be quite serious.

4. It's a variant of concern to all countries in the middle of a vaccination program.

5. We know the individual mutations that have popped up in the SA, Brazilian and Indian variants. If you think of variants as different cars - we know that certain changes to the wheels and exhaust create problems - so we design a vaccine that includes those particular wheel and exhaust changes. Now our immune system can cope with any variant that has those particular characteristics.

I live in an area of concern, huge Indian community in my town. According to the stuff I've seen from the government and news, we're still having very few deaths and hospitalizations.
Keeping an eye to see when the latest figures are released by our council (they complete a list of which area have the worst covid rates, hospitalizations, deaths, vaccinations and tests performed each week.

I really hope that this variant is controlled by the jabs, even if only enough to keep us out of hospital!

Does anyone know if the Indian variant is more of a risk to children and teens please? I can't seem to find an answer to that!

Does anyone know if the Indian variant is more of a risk to children and teens please? I can't seem to find an answer to that!

Everything I've seen so far says no. The reason why it's affecting lots of younger people in India is because it's more transmissible. So it's not that the strain itself is more of a risk to young people, it's that when it's more easily spread more people of all ages will get it.

We know the individual mutations that have popped up in the SA, Brazilian and Indian variants.

Is it the same with the UK variant?

Thank you for all answers! @bookworm1632 and @TruelyWonder - are young people and children at more risk from getting seriously ill from the Indian variant? Could this become problematic in a population where this group has not received the vaccine. I’m sorry to ask a horrible question - it’s playing on my mind, but I’m sure it’s an over-worry...

@MakkaPakkasSpongyThing

Would like to ask those who have more knowledge than me! 1) there is no evidence - as yet, that it could evade the vaccine? 2) is it too early to tell (lag effect)? 3) could it become more problematic come winter time, if so why? 4) is it a variant of concern to all countries worldwide, or just some? 5) with a potential 3rd jab on its way to protect against variants, how is it possible to protect against a variant when it’s potential impact is not yet know? Surely it takes more time?

There is some evidence from small lab studies with serum at Cambridge University that the Indian variant can evade antibodies.

It has a mutation similar to one of the Brazilian variants (P1) which scientist think is linked to evading immunity.

What happens in the U.K. over the next few weeks/months will provide the real world information the works needs for confirmation.

The WHO has designated it a variant of global concern.

As far as I know there is no information on seasonality and B1617.2

It's success in spreading India would tend to point to it not needing winter respiratory virus season to do damage.

The boosters are not specifically targeted to the Indian variant for the reasons you state.

@PrincessNutNuts - thank you. Is there any evidence that younger people are more at risk from this variant? How could it play out if this is our unvaccinated group?

The issue surely is if there is widespread spread amongst the unvaccinated i.e., mostly the young, vaccine-hesitant, and anti-vaxxers of a more virulent and dangerous strain that causes severe disease in enough then we could be back to square one.

I guess it's too early to figure out how such a scenario will pan out and if surge testing and/or local lockdown can do the job. The road map as configured means effectively a free for all after June 21st.

I'm off to a 20k capacity 3 day festival in the beginning of August, the very definition of a super spreader event. I guess with the pilot events they have already done with testing on the way in or some such can help mitigate some of the velocity that such events will create. There is no requirement at the moment to demonstrate you have been vaxxed for entry.

The only measure that matters now is hospitalizations and deaths and if children start to become seriously ill. If they stay low then we are in the clear. Fingers crossed that happens and the vaxxed community grows ever larger and that a 'morning after' type of therapeutic will come along soon like the vaccine to help push the bastard down if you are unlucky enough to have it.

Anyway I'm done with worrying and will be doing whatever I am allowed to do with gusto. We are dead a long time so enjoy the world as much as you can while you can.

[quote MakkaPakkasSpongyThing]@PrincessNutNuts - thank you. Is there any evidence that younger people are more at risk from this variant? How could it play out if this is our unvaccinated group?[/quote]
I don't think we know enough about that yet. (Conflicting reports out of India.)

As the second largest B1617.2 country I expect we'll find out the hard way.

In the B117 wave it travelled through younger adult age groups first, then to their parents and then grandparents. The young were assumed not to be in danger then, the older age groups are assumed (by some) not to be in danger now.

This is the picture in Bolton at the moment, but it's only been a few weeks.

The issue surely is if there is widespread spread amongst the unvaccinated i.e., mostly the young, vaccine-hesitant, and anti-vaxxers of a more virulent and dangerous strain that causes severe disease in enough then we could be back to square one.

I think a big concern will be the vulnerable who live in high risk areas but with low take up rate. Their immune systems might not react as strongly to vaccines. They rely to some extent on others around them getting jabbed. (It would have also helped if Boris hadn't decided to import new strains but there you go).

As the second largest B1617.2 country I expect we'll find out the hard way.

I am really annoyed the government keeps taking the same risks over and over. The border with India could have been shut quickly and reopened again, rather than waiting and waiting.

Johnson always dithers for a fortnight.

because at the moment, the UK is/was on course to zero covid. The vaccines have proven FAR more effective at stopping onward transmission than anyone expected and cases continue to fall

New cases following the 7 day average have been up 12% and 13% over the last couple of days. There was a very small uptick a couple of months ago now for a day or so but that was it, it's been downhill since. It will be interesting to see how this now plays out and whether cases continue to rise or whether the last couple of days have been an anomoly.

This is the picture in Bolton at the moment, but it's only been a few weeks.

Is there a reason why the focus seems to be Bolton? Indian variant is rapidly spreading through London's densely population - and it's an area with high vaccine hesitancy rates (which puts it's vulnerable at increased risk).

I guess, is it because Bolton is reporting cases for the whole town, whereas London's cases can look artificially low due to the data being split into the individual boroughs?

Scientist on radio

Data needed SAGE will have more and meeting today

Vaccine issue - not sure yet
Local response - in his view ineffective
Vaccine programme - should help

Ok will rtft

I think a lot is to be looked at today

Re Evade vaccines

• incidence in India of infection but in huge numbers rare events will be detected and no indication that disease was severe

Also this happens with other vaccines

As much as I want them to open up everything immediately, maybe it would be better just to wait a couple of weeks and look at the data again. It feels like it's spreading uncontrollably now. It might not be anything to worry about, but they acted too late on the Kent variant too and look where that got us.

Long Covid is a concern. Particularly if the Indian strain is more transmissible. It can develop after mild to moderate cases - which is why preventing infection in the first place is the best approach.

• incidence in India of infection but in huge numbers rare events will be detected and no indication that disease was severe *

I don't understand this sentence, no matter how many times I read it. Can someone else explain please ? I think it's early for me.*

@user19097527484949

As much as I want them to open up everything immediately, maybe it would be better just to wait a couple of weeks and look at the data again. It feels like it's spreading uncontrollably now. It might not be anything to worry about, but they acted too late on the Kent variant too and look where that got us.

No point doing that if our borders remain so unrestricted. Definitely we need proper quarantine. Red list currently freely mixing with other passengers - who then travel from airport on busy public transport...

@Torvean

There 2 main Indian variants. One of them is very dangerous. You're seeing what it does in India right now. We don't need to wait and watch.

There is no vaccine that covers it yet. Its not the one that's been found in the UK.

What have you heard about a 3rd vaccination for variant?

India cases and deaths similar to the wave we had here in January. They have over 1 billion people in India but cases/ deaths ratio to population is actually pretty similar.

@Tealightsandd our borders are not unrestricted at all.

But agreed that people from red list countries should NOT be standing for 6 hours in a queue next to people from green list countries. That's just so stupid.

@user19097527484949

- incidence in India of infection but in huge numbers rare events will be detected and no indication that disease was severe *

I don't understand this sentence, no matter how many times I read it. Can someone else explain please ? I think it's early for me.*

It’s early I know probably affecting my posting but scientist on R4 said in India cases of infection after vaccine have been detected but seemed to talk it down by saying

• no cases of severe disease
• rare event but India is huge so you will pick it up
• other vaccines have this - you can be infected after having it but the crucial part is how sick you get

@EnoughnowIthink

because at the moment, the UK is/was on course to zero covid. The vaccines have proven FAR more effective at stopping onward transmission than anyone expected and cases continue to fall

New cases following the 7 day average have been up 12% and 13% over the last couple of days. There was a very small uptick a couple of months ago now for a day or so but that was it, it's been downhill since. It will be interesting to see how this now plays out and whether cases continue to rise or whether the last couple of days have been an anomoly.

We always knew cases would rise as we opened up. We have been told this time and time again. Yet people seem to be surprised when it happens.

@MarshaBradyo thank you !