Indian Variant of Concern

[MakkaPakkasSpongyThing]

Would like to ask those who have more knowledge than me!

1. there is no evidence - as yet, that it could evade the vaccine?
2. is it too early to tell (lag effect)?
3. could it become more problematic come winter time, if so why?
4. is it a variant of concern to all countries worldwide, or just some?
5. with a potential 3rd jab on its way to protect against variants, how is it possible to protect against a variant when it’s potential impact is not yet know? Surely it takes more time?

@picturesandpickles

As the second largest B1617.2 country I expect we'll find out the hard way.

I am really annoyed the government keeps taking the same risks over and over. The border with India could have been shut quickly and reopened again, rather than waiting and waiting.

Johnson always dithers for a fortnight.

Inviting the Indian trade delegation to come here, and not asking them to quarantine was also unwise.

They tested on departure and arrival but still two of them were subsequently found to be covid positive. (I'm not up to date on this, it may be more, now.)

People are failing to see reason here. First there was panic over the SA variant, then Brazil (Doom mongers were having a field day @PrincessNutNuts), now we have moved on to the Indian variant. There will always be variants.

So what if cases go up, we locked down to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed. Vaccines cut hospitalizations and deaths by up to 90%. The Pfizer vaccine is affect against variants, as are the other vaccines I expect. The number of cases is NOT THE ISSUE.

And yet some Mumsnetters think we should have a rolling lockdown from now until 2050. Fucking ridiculous.....

@CottageGardener I really hope you're right ! Indeed everyone was very worried about the Brazilian and South African variant and it hasn't ended in a catastrophe yet ( for us ).

I think people are cautious because we've been up and down so many times now. Things can change so fast. A lot of people just can't believe anything anymore and don't want to be bitterly disappointed. It's a protection mechanism for some, to expect the worst.

Personally I'm getting worried and wish I wasn't.

@user19097527484949 I know it's hard not to worry when we are within touching distance of normality but the government did say they expected cases to rise as we come out of lockdown simply because not all adults have been vaccinated. As long as deaths/hospitalizations do not increase too much things should be fine. Don't forget everyone was panicking over the Kent variant not so long ago.

@CottageGardener

People are failing to see reason here. First there was panic over the SA variant, then Brazil (Doom mongers were having a field day *@PrincessNutNuts*), now we have moved on to the Indian variant. There will always be variants.

So what if cases go up, we locked down to prevent the NHS becoming overwhelmed. Vaccines cut hospitalizations and deaths by up to 90%. The Pfizer vaccine is affect against variants, as are the other vaccines I expect. The number of cases is NOT THE ISSUE.

And yet some Mumsnetters think we should have a rolling lockdown from now until 2050. Fucking ridiculous.....

Have you seen the Warwick modelling?

This is the hospital admissions chart from a more transmissible variant assuming vaccines offer complete protection.

The biggest peak is for a variant that is 50% more transmissible.

B1617.2 is suspected to be 60% more transmissible.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14928946/covid-cases-rise-fear-indian-variant-spreads-faster-kent/amp/?utmsource=twitter&utmmmedium=social&utmcampaign=sharebarweb&twitterrimpression=true

If people want good research based explanations, I recommend following Mac n Chise on Twitter. She is a Molecular Biologist. Very unbiased clear evidence on the effectiveness of vaccines and past immunity (having worked I think on the moderna). She definitely doesn't have an agenda - just gives the facts and an explanation you can actually understand!

There are many reasons why the Indian variant has caused such a high death rate - low vaccination, scare medical resources, & the black fungal infection - caused by lower resources & cross infection & if the picture I saw on the media is anyway accurate - lack of patient distance, & possibly the private supply of oxygen cylinders from street vendors & this disease is prevalent in India

@Crazycatlady83

If people want good research based explanations, I recommend following Mac n Chise on Twitter. She is a Molecular Biologist. Very unbiased clear evidence on the effectiveness of vaccines and past immunity (having worked I think on the moderna). She definitely doesn't have an agenda - just gives the facts and an explanation you can actually understand!

I consider that one a propaganda account.

Always positive spin.

So consequently is demonstrably wrong - a lot.

@PrincessNutNuts aww The Sun - the pinnacle of medical journal

[quote Crazycatlady83]@PrincessNutNuts aww The Sun - the pinnacle of medical journal [/quote]
I usually find their covid explanations clear, succinct, and factually correct.

Unlike the heavily promoted source you recommend.

@PrincessNutNuts Haha. Love it. You expect me to get my facts from the Sun😂😂. Modelling is just that, a model that may or may not be correct. Most have been wrong.

What are you going to do when this pandemic is over?

Don't forget everyone was panicking over the Kent variant not so long ago.

Have you forgotten already what a mess the country was in dealing with this during the Winter just gone?

You fail to see why people are concerned about variants and dismiss them as spreaders of doom which I find baffling. We have been in a lockdown for most of this year so it will only be now in the coming months that the effects of different variants that we know are already circulating will be known. No one can say for definite how this will go but I fall on the side where caution is a better approach. I don't really want another school year of disruption.

@mrshoho

Don't forget everyone was panicking over the Kent variant not so long ago.

Have you forgotten already what a mess the country was in dealing with this during the Winter just gone?

You fail to see why people are concerned about variants and dismiss them as spreaders of doom which I find baffling. We have been in a lockdown for most of this year so it will only be now in the coming months that the effects of different variants that we know are already circulating will be known. No one can say for definite how this will go but I fall on the side where caution is a better approach. I don't really want another school year of disruption.

Of course but the Kent variant is still here, and is now being effectively kicked up the arse by our vaccination programme. Are you still worried about the Kent variant or the Brazil variant?

We need to be much clearer about the difference between variants spreading and variants causing high levels of serious disease and death. The evidence currently does not point to the Indian variant causing the latter, thankfully. Obviously we should be watching it very closely, but that’s what it looks like right now.

I found this 'threat assessment brief' re the Indian VOCs (focusing on the EU):

www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Emergence-of-SARS-CoV-2-B.1.617-variants-in-India-and-situation-in-the-EUEEA.pdf

Quote:

Summary:

First reported in India in December 2020, SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 have been increasingly detected in other countries.
• The aim of this Threat Assessment Brief is to assess the potential public health implications of the B.1.617
lineages for EU/EEA countries with a focus on lineage B.1.617.2.
• Over the past eight weeks India and some surrounding countries have seen a sharp increase in the number of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths. This has been associated with a rising proportion of sequenced
viruses belonging to lineages B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2.
• The United Kingdom has seen a rapid increase in detection of lineage B.1.617.1 and, to a greater extent, B.1.617.2, associated with travel to India and onward community transmission. On the 6 May, the United
Kingdom (UK) designated lineage B.1.617.2 as a variant of concern.
• In the EU/EEA there are indications that the frequency of detection of both lineages B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 is increasing.
• Currently described lineages B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 have distinct mutation profiles and warrant individual assessment. Given the still very limited available data with respect to their transmissibility, disease severity and immune escape potential relative to other co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the EU/EEA, the full impact of these lineages on public health is not yet possible to assess.
• At this time, ECDC maintains its assessment of B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 as variants of interest and will continue to actively monitor the situation.

Specific to the UK:

Quote:

Public Heath England (PHE) consider that B.1.617.2 is at least as transmissible as B.1.1.7 (currently the dominant variant in the UK). This assessment was based on evidence that the variant B.1.617.2 can compete with B.1.1.7 in the population, as well as on modelled growth estimates [17]. The assessment was made with ‘moderate confidence’ and it highlighted the need for further analyses to confirm this observation.

Growth estimates, based on a logistic growth model for variants of concern relative to a B.1.1.7 baseline for B.1.617.1, were estimated by
PHE on 20 April 2021 to be 0.51 (n=21; p=0.006) [17]. No growth rate assessment or any other transmissibility estimate is available from PHE for B.1.617.3.

Furthermore, all three lineages contain the mutations L452R and D614G, which are both associated with increased transmissibility.

Factors that may have increased the detections of all three lineages in the UK in recent weeks include increased travel to/from India for religious and other large gatherings [18].

Targeted testing of arrivals from India to the UK and countries in the EU/EEA may have caused an overrepresentation of all three lineages among cases detected and sequenced and further data are needed to assess their true incidence and transmissibility.

There is currently no in vitro neutralisation data evaluating the immune escape potential of B.1.617.2 against serum from previously infected or vaccinated individuals. Available evidence exists only for B.1.617.1, where serum from previously infected and vaccinated individuals has been shown to neutralise B.1.617.1 equally, or more effectively than other currently circulating variants of concern.

The Kent variant has been 'kicked up the arse' by lockdown mainly up to now. The test of the vaccination program will be now as we start living again and mixing. We are doing amazingly well vaccinating our population but still a long way to go. It's looking optimistic that the vaccine will prevent deaths together with the new antiviral therapy being developed, but we are still likely to have a third wave of people needing hospital treatment. This is without even bringing the Indian variants into it. So yes I am concerned. We haven't been allowed to mix indoors since the week before Christmas due to the out of control infection from the Kent variant.

@PrincessNutNuts - when I Google I try to look at a range of sources, and not necessarily be led by preconceived ideas about various newspapers. You’ve given some great info - thank you. And I wouldn’t dismiss when you say The Sun gives good Covid explanations.

Just wondering if other counties with a partially vaccinated population are seeing a rise in the Indian variant - and how they are responding...

At the very least, they should be targeting the areas of concern, Bolton etc, and vaccinating all over 18s urgently.

@CottageGardener agree with everything you are saying.

The graph posted for Bolton cases by age group actually shows a very positive result. Yes cases are rising in the younger age groups (unvaccinated). You then see a slower rise in the age groups that are likely to be vaccinated once (or have refused) and then the fully vaccinated group with the highest uptake are showing no increase.

Let's be blunt it doesn't matter how many cases there are - it matters how many die/are hospitalised above normal flu rates.

Have you seen the Warwick modelling?

Yes.

A 'different' poster was obsessed with it. You'd almost think you were the same person or something.

So consequently is demonstrably wrong - a lot.

One of the weird things about this pandemic has been ‘experts’ who have been demonstrably wrong even while they are making their predictions.

If we’re not careful there’s a very real danger of overwhelming the hospitals in at least some areas over the next few months. We could end up with a situation similar to the one Michigan had with the Kent variant. The hospitals fill with younger partially and unvaccinated patients and while they don’t die, they spend much longer in hospital taking up beds needed either of other covid patients or for other illnesses. Only a very small proportion of people are fully vaccinated and most under 40s aren’t vaccinated at all.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay - and then potentially those would normally recover with hospital treatment, may not receive adequate care...

So let’s speed up the vaccinations in those areas!

Think someone mentioned upthread about seasonal dependency of the Indian variant, and the likelihood of this variant not being seasonally dependent. However, surely that’s also unknown. If it’s only just becoming prevalent here - we won’t know how our seasonal climate effects it’s potency.